Italian wine: a 2024 harvest up on 2023, but below average, and the future to be written

Quality “to be paid for what it’s worth” as the guiding star, as Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida said; “produce as much as the market demands”, added Assoenologi President Riccardo Cotarella, evaluating first and foremost the issue of excessively high yields, in some areas, but also “not indiscriminate”, but reasoned, grubbing-up incentives; grubbing-ups that are not the solution, for wine companies, which must be generally more efficient, and have more managerial skills to deal with a complex phase, and a changing wine market. These are some of the indications on the future of wine, which came from the presentation of harvest estimates in Italy signed by Ismea, Assoenologi and Unione Italiana Vini - Uiv, today by “DiviNazione Expo” 2024, in the framework of the G7 in Syracuse and Ortigia. A 2024 harvest in general more abundant than that of 2023, at least according to estimates to date, which speak of 41 million hectoliters, +7% over last year, “missing the optimal target estimated by wine companies between 43-45 million hectoliters”, with some stability in the North, a strong recovery in the Center compared to last year, and still a drop linked mainly to drought in the South, but still well below the “norm” of 49-50 million hectoliters in the recent past, and in particular at -12.8% on the five-year average, Ismea’s Fabio del Bravo recalled. “Which is not necessarily a bad thing in a market picture that is not bright”, and sees Italian large-scale retail holding up a little in quantity, but losing something in volume, and an export growing, but not running. Curbing production potential was the now usual impact of extreme weather phenomena, from excessive rainfall in the Center-North to drought in the South. “Overall, a vintage contained in quantity, but overall of good quality, with several excellent peaks. The premises for signing an excellent vintage, despite the vagaries of the weather, are all there”, explains a note.
With Italy expected to regain the production lead in Europe and the world, but it is “a wooden medal”, said Unione Italiana Vini president Lamberto Frescobaldi. “We produce more than others, but with an average price that is too low, and high inventories, despite a very poor 2023 vintage. We have a firm vintage in the cellar, and that is not what we would like. It is true that white wines have come out more than red wines, but there are imbalances on prices that are compressed, you can no longer make ends meet by selling grapes, and we have to figure out what to do for the future. Domestic consumption is down, people are giving up certain goods, including wine. So there are lower revenues, lower margins, lower investments, and the situation is complex. Exports are growing a little bit, but it is a very concentrated growth in Prosecco and the Northeast in general, while other areas are suffering. We have to think about the efficiency of companies: for many years we were told that small was beautiful, it was thought that luxury was driving, but that is no longer true either. We need to work on the ability of companies to innovate, to evolve, to have managerialism. Prosecco is also growing because of this, for example. But we also have to commensurate with the spending capacity of families. The fact that Central Italy has produced much more than last year, worries, full cellar means little ability to negotiate prices, it means having to settle for lower prices, because next year there will be a new harvest. In Tuscany today grapes in Chianti are bought at 60 euros per quintal, it is a price that cannot guarantee worthy survival for farmers. However, we also imported 2.5 million hectoliters from Spain, at very low prices, I don’t know what they were used for. Maybe they become sparkling wines that then somehow become Italian, and that’s not a small volume. Let’s also put in that table grape producers have unsold quantities, which then sometimes become wine even though you can’t, and that’s not good, but there’s also this pool that increases the volume quantities. These are all aspects that we need to think about and get right”.
“One hundred years ago, precisely in 1924, the OIV - International Organization of Vine and Wine - was born to save the sector from disease, but also from prohibition. Today we are here to discuss the future of wine - said for his part the Minister of Agriculture, Francesco Lollobrigida - we are second to none, in quality, but we need to promote ourselves better. Funds are important, we on the CMO promotion made it clear that they were actually used for that purpose, and we fought in Europe to prevent those resources from being cut. In our territories they come from all over the world to see our landscapes sculpted by man, including through the vineyards. Of uprooting, in some, we can reason, perhaps talking about replacement with other crops”, the minister reiterated, “but not abandonment: the farmer protects nature and the territory, in our vision. Farmer who must be protected, and for this we say we need an incentive Pac, we need simplification. Italy can be the guide, the model. In April, for example, we chose Franciacorta”, the minister recalled as he greeted Vittorio Moretti, patron of Bellavista, in the audience, ”for the Ministerial Meeting (whose work took place mainly in Cà del Bosco, but not only ed.), with which we brought the countries of the world to discuss wine, in Italy. It is a territory that is an example of how business and science can change a territory that did not exist, because we have not only great historical excellences like the Frescobaldi or Antinori families. Then we brought them, not surprisingly, to “Opera Wine” and “Vinitaly”, to make everyone understand that we are a superpower of quality, that we can combine it with beauty, and that we have to take them to the world. Let’s show the world what we are, as we wanted to do in this “open” G7, and let’s make it pay for what it’s worth”.
A fundamental aspect, that of value, which passes through quality, but not only, as Assoenologi president Riccardo Cotarella mentioned. “The situation of wine, perhaps not critical, but at least to be examined carefully. Our sector lives on two pillars, production and market, which live off each other, are not distinct. The producer alone cannot influence the market. Raising consumption from 30 to 60 liters per capita would be the panacea for all ills, but it is not a viable path. Managing production is the only weapon. It is good to say no to savage explantations, because if you remove the vineyards that produce less and keep the most productive ones, it makes no sense. The issue of yields is fundamental: producing 400 quintals per hectare in the plains generally does not make quality, and it puts those who do, for example, heroic viticulture in the hills into crisis. It doesn't apply everywhere, of course: Prosecco produces as much and sells as much, but other appellations produce more than the market takes in. And you can’t go after fads either. Today, for example, what is happening is that so many red grapes are being vinified in white, and this, you will see, will penalize the growth of white wines that we are seeing. You don’t do it this way, those who do viticulture can’t follow trends like this, you need planning. We lack the entrepreneurial spirit that sometimes farmers, and we children of farmers, as I am also, do not have. We need to regulate production according to demand, that’s the most important thing of all. Today’s wine is no longer what you “guzzle,” what “goes down well”: it is culture, it is tasting, it is territory, and we winemakers must be the defenders of this history, this excellence and this culture. Wine is our wealth, let’s treasure it”, said Cotarella. He commented on the 2024 Italian grape harvest in particular: “It was one of the most challenging harvests I can remember in my now long experience as a winemaker. A harvest that of 2024 conditioned in an important way by a significant weather transversality that tested Italian winemakers from the North to the South of the country. In particular, this year’s harvest was part of an extreme weather pattern, characterized by climatic instability that inevitably affected grape production. Earlier varieties, in some areas, were harvested with lower yields and a quality marked by adverse weather conditions, while later varieties suffered delays or advances in ripening, with a significant impact on the sugar and acid balance of the grapes themselves. However, despite the difficulties, what emerges as a determining factor in the final quality of the wines is precisely the work of the winemakers. Never more than this year have we been called upon to demonstrate our scientific expertise and technical knowledge in order to better manage both vineyard and cellar management. In the field, we had to adopt precise strategies to optimize the use of water resources, monitor the health of the plants and decide the exact time of harvest to obtain grapes at their maximum potential. In the winery, work has been crucial to enhance the raw material, working precisely to compensate for imbalances created by weather conditions”.
Looking at the numbers, the grape harvest survey, carried out through a process of harmonization of the methodologies adopted by Assoenologi, Unione Italiana Vini (Uiv) and Istituto di Servizi per il Mercato Agricolo Alimentare (Ismea), to which is added the contribution of the competent Office of the Ministry and the Regions, compared to last year, portrays a substantial hold in the North (+0.6% the performance of the macro-region), accompanied by an important recovery in the Center (+29.1%) and a moderate increase in the South (+15.5%), which, however, are not enough to bring production back to mid-period levels. While the North and Center deviate from the five-year averages (2019-2023) by 5.3% and 5.4% respectively, the performance of vineyards in the South and Islands is confirmed to be in sharp decline, at -25.7%. In the global scenario, France’s drastic contraction (-18% on 2023 values) gives Italy back the world production record.
Regarding the timing of the harvest, the across-the-board nature of the weather trend influenced the timing of the harvest according to variety, type, location and soil layout, providing a varied scenario. In the South, where water shortage stress was joined (since May) by heat stress, harvest time was earlier, as in the Center and North for early varieties. In contrast, late varieties in the North fell within seasonal averages. The drought certainly had a negative impact on volumes, but the temperature trend allowed for full phenolic maturity, which is the real added value of this wine year.
Looking at individual regions, +100% in Abruzzo and +85% in Molise are surprising, but these are actually recoveries from the very low 2023 production. Stable in Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia, growing 30%, according to estimates, are Tuscany, Umbria, Lazio, Campania and Basilicata, while Marche makes +25%, Puglia +18%, Piedmont and Calabria +10% and Emilia-Romagna +7%. But there is no shortage of major declines on a generally ungenerous 2023, such as Lombardy’s -30%, Sardinia and Valle d’Aosta’s -20%, Sicily’s -16% and Trentino Alto Adige’s -12%. On the regional ranking front, with 11 million hectoliters and a share of 27% of the made-in-Italy harvest, Veneto is confirmed as Italy's leading production region, followed by Emilia-Romagna and Puglia, in a substantial tie with about 17%. They are followed in the “top 5” by Piedmont and Sicily, followed by Tuscany.
A harvest, which, moreover, is part of a highly complex framework for the wine sector on a global scale. “In this context, characterized by changing consumption patterns, conjunctural difficulties and the impact of climate change, Italy is showing more antibodies than its competitors, starting with France”, Uiv, Ismea and Assoenologi explain.
As far as prices are concerned, faced with a 2023 vintage with the poorest harvest in decades, the Ismea producer price index returns for the 2023/24 campaign an increase in general price lists of around 11%, accrued, however, with totally different contributions from individual segments. While table wines grew a lot (+42%, with reds better than whites), IGTs recorded a much more modest increase (+4%), and DOP wines showed a negative sign, especially among whites. Increasingly evident, then, are the inhomogeneities within individual PDOs. Among the key chapters for understanding the market is that of stocks. Data from Cantina Italia show that at the end of July wines in stock were 14% less than in the same period of the previous year, however, against a production that made 23% lacking. It can be seen that during this campaign the trends of wine leaving the cellars have been rather slow, an indication of a market that is struggling to absorb the product on a regular basis.
On the demand side, in fact, Italian household consumption is slightly down compared to the first half of last year, and positive signals from foreign markets are not enough to offset domestic losses. According to elaborations by the Uiv-Ismea Observatory on Istat data, the first half of 2024 closed with less brilliant results than expected, at +2.4% in volume (y/y) and +3.2% in value, thanks to an underwhelming spring compared to the first four months (in April, growths of 6-7% were still recorded). Sparkling wines are the real protagonists and are again driving domestic exports with +11% in volume and +7% in receipts. Bulk and bag-in-box, on the other hand, saw foreign deliveries fall by 6% and 5%. Bottled wines held up thanks mainly to IGTs. Among customer countries, the slight recovery of the U.S. and the U.K. is underlined against the slowdown of Canada, France and Switzerland.