Incredulity and worry: Italian wine sector about duties at 200% threatened by Trump

So big to seem unreal, so much to make people hope more in a provocation rather than in a concrete proposal. In this way, the associations of category seem to be willing to comment the umpteenth remark by President Usa Donald Trump who threatened duties at 200% (which would mean making certain products go out from the market, actually) on Champagne, and wine of France, and of other Eu countries, if the European Union won’t retire duties at 50% on American whiskeys, into force starting from the first days of April, as a measure of revenge on the duties on steel and aluminum established by the Usa (as reported here). A dog biting its own tail. But, the dice is, at this point, launched.
“The escalation of trade wars generates grotesque situations in which everyone looses. We are in the sleep of reason generating monsters, we hope in an early awakening from this nightmare because wine is symbol of the friendship between the two civilizations”. In this way, president of Unione Italiana Vini (Uiv) Lamberto Frescobaldi, according to whom “with duties at 200%, in which we don’t want to believe at least as much as we don’t believe in monsters, the Eu would loose about 4.9 billion euros of export, i.e. the total of overseas direct exports. But, the entire industry of American wine & food would loose too, because for each euro of purchased import wine, other 4.5 are generated in favor of Us economy”. Italy, according to Uiv Observatory (as by Istat data analyzed by WineNews), in 2024, sent to the Usa 24% of the total global export for a countervalue of 1.93 billion euros (+10% compared to 2023) which would rise completely in case of duties at 200%.
Federvini expresses “very great worry for the possibility of transatlantic duties on wines and spirits at levels which are evidently unbearable, and for a price-related escalation which would have disruptive effects on both sides of the Atlantic. Damages would be huge, and probably irreparable involving productive supply chains, tens of thousands of businesses, and hundreds of thousands of workers both in the Usa and in Europe”. Federvini, in line with the positions expressed by the European associations of the sector, restates the importance to keep wines and spirits out of these trade debates which don’t concern agri-food sector. “Already in the past, the sector payed at a high price imposed duties for reasons which were external to the sector: we can’t afford that this will repeat – affirms Federvini – with potentially increasingly more dramatic effects. Looking only to Italian exports towards the Usa, it is a value of about 2 billion euros yearly. We launch an appeal to Italian, European, and Us institutions so that they work urgently to shared solutions preventing restrictive measures, and protecting a transatlantic trade which, in the time, generated mutual benefits”.
“We trust that the last declaration by President Trump is a provocation. It is useless to say that, with tariffs of these (dis)proportions, our wine producers would loose the number one trade partner in the world. Wine Italian export towards the Usa is worth almost 2 billion euros, and it is growing. Few months ago, in the end of 2024, our companies took part in American edition of Vinitaly with great enthusiasm and results. We remain convinced that triggering a duty war is not useful for anyone. The European Union, in order to avoid to zero the export towards the Usa, should make system and act in a cohesive way favoring the negotiation”, comments Massimiliano Giansanti, presidente Confagricoltura.
Still, according to Coldiretti and Filiera Italia, duties of this range would be “an extreme measure which would put Italian wine in suffering compromising a path, which, in the last twenty years, saw the sales in the Usa almost tripled in value with an increase by 162%, according to analysis Coldiretti on Istat data, so much to represent almost a quarter of total exports of Italian wine. Almost a third of the total is represented by sparkling wines. The Usa are also the first world consumer of wine with 33.3 million of hectoliters, according to Oiv-Organizzazione Internazionale della Vigna e del Vino data, and, for Italy, they represent the most important market in value”. “Now, it is necessary to stop a dangerous escalation which is carrying to a global trade war where the first victims are Us citizens which will pay more for products, and, with them, farmers, implementing the necessary diplomatic actions to prevent the twisting of trade flows”, underlines president Coldiretti Ettore Prandini. “I believe good sense from both parties is needed - adds ceo of Filiera Italia Luigi Scordamaglia - Trump threat is linked to the confirmation of Europe of duties at 50% on American whiskey. Eu Commission should demonstrate good willingness by continuing to avoid with the moratorium in being this duty protecting, in this way, European and alcoholic drinks. Someone has to begin to show a little bit of good sense, Europe does it first”.
“We hope that this of Trump is only a provocation,a taxation at 200% on wines would zero, actually, the sales towards the Usa, which are our first Italian end market for wine with almost 1.9 billion euros, and a weight on overseas agri-food exports of 26%”, comments president Cia-Agricoltori Italiani Cristiano Fini. Who restates how “Pdo white wines from South Tyrol and Friuli-Venezia Giulia depend the most on the Usa for their export with a share of 48%, and an exported value of 138 million euros in 2024; Pdo Tuscan red wines (40%, 290 million), Pdo Piedmontese red wines (31%, 121 million), and Pdo Prosecco (27%, 491 million)”. Cia recalls that “the risk of duties would leave free road to competitors which can attack a very desirable share market: from Argentinian Malbec to Australian Shiraz, and to Chilean Merlot. Considering Italian wine producers, it would be difficult to recover solid relationships with Usa buyers, once these are forced to interrupt the relationships with Europe, and look for other international markets”.
“The application of American duties on wine and Eu countermeasures would trigger a real trade war with negative consequences on both economies. Europe and the Usa are two economic realities which have always had solid trade relationships fully respecting the two civilizations, and mutual cultures - adds president of Wine sector of Confcooperative Fedagripesca Luca Rigotti-  therefore, we hope that, in these weeks, the diplomacies work actively to prevent a debate about the theme of duties which would have a series of hard repercussions both in Europe and in the Usa. If a so extreme decision is reached, wine companies should take charge of absorbing as much as possible the price increase, but without any doubt, a possible sharpening of import duty will put into difficulty all the supply chain, including American importers and consumers. To ensure that Italian wine won’t undergo losses deriving from this context, to me, it is important to restate how much the work of diplomacies is determining and fundamental to avoid worsening an already delicate geopolitical and economic situation”.
A scenario that everyone, obviously, hopes to avoid. Also, considering France, an other great wine exporter country in the Usa, such as Italy with the Minister of French Trade Commerce Laurent Saint-Martin, who, on “X”, commented: “Donald Trump is intensifying trade war which chose to trigger. France remains determined to reply with the European Commission and our partners. We won’t cede to threats, and we will always protect our sectors”.
To say his own, on the institutional front, also Minister of Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani, at the margin of G7 Esteri occurring in Canada. “We are working on a plan of contrast to eventual American duties, and we think about markets where we can export more in order to maintain the export level that we have. There has been a very light drop this year, but, my aim is to arrive to 700 billion of euros at the end of 2025, compared to the current 628 billion”, said Tajani, referring to Italian exports overall. The Minister mentioned “Mexico, Turkey, Gulf countries, Japan, and India” as markets where we can work trying to increase our exports provided that we want to continue to export also to the Usa”. Tajani recalled that “Italian products are all very high quality products: who looks for Italian product, in order to have it, he/she is willing to spend also a dollar more, if there is a duty more. This makes us not happy, but less worried, and it is important not to panic in this phase, but to have strategies allowing us to protect our businesses. The Government has to indicate plans, projects for businesses which are willing to invest abroad, and want to export abroad, and what we are doing is to try to reassure them so that they can continue to give work”, concluded Tajani. Adding that: “to the American Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, I will say only that a trade work is convenient for noone. I am also convinced that Italy can import more from the Usa, it can invest more in the Usa, and a higher import and higher Italian investments could also be a shield to protect our exports in that country”.
But, in the meantime, the reaction of markets was immediate with great European wine and alcoholic drink producers who registered very significant drops, explains an analysis of trading platform Ig Italia, signed by Filippo Diodovich, Senior Market Strategist. “In Italy, Campari highlights a loss of 4.30%, and Italian Wine Brands of 3.30%. In France, Lvmh, owner of brands such as Moët & Chandon, showed a reduction at 1%, while Rémy Cointreau, known for its premium cognac, underwent a drop of 4%. Also Pernod Ricard, giant of the sector of alcoholic drinks, registered a decrease of 3%”, explains a note. The Usa market, recalls Ig Italia, represents a significant part of European wine exports. In 2024, the Usa imported wine from Europe for an overall value over 5 billion euros with Italy among the main exporters having reached 2 billion euros with an increase over 10% compared to 2023. Italy, in terms of value, is behind only France (2.3 billion euros), but it is number one in the world in terms of volumes with 354 million of exported liters. “These figures are extraordinary mainly considering the strong increase of the demand of Us importers in the month of December, probably to cover the risk of eventual duties”, explains Ig Italia, which adds: “we believe that a trade war can have very negative effects on some very important and significant sectors of European economy. Wine industry is fundamental for Italy. We consider that European political authorities will have to undertake long negotiations with the Usa necessarily showing a stable and united position in the defense of export, underlining and highlighting the strong mutual negative impacts of those protectionist measures”.