From production to consumption, from export value to surface: 2024, the negative year of wine

For wine, 2024 has been a year characterized by a “minus” sign at an international and overall level, and, therefore, from consumption to production, from vineyard surface to export in value. But, also with some signals of recovery, and, anyway to be analyzed for single country as the case of Italy shows, going through a positive ongoing trend in export as both in value and volume. Interest and reflection cues don’t miss in the report “State of the World Vine & Wine Sector in 2024” by Oiv, the International Organization of Vineyard and Wine, presented in these hours in an online conference.
In 2024, wthe ine world, explained Oiv, had to cope with another difficult year, characterized by adverse climate conditions which brought to low production levels. In the meantime, social and economic factors brought to a drop in consumption in key markets. Despite that, higher average prices contributed to support the overall performance of the market in terms of value by partially mitigating the reduction in volumes. The global surface of vineyards (including those for the production of table grapes) continued to drop for the fourth consecutive year also in 2024 (-0.6%) attesting at 7.1 million of hectares. A “decline” on which the phenomenon of vineyard extirpation affected on both hemispheres. Also wine production goes down due to extreme climate conditions, and, therefore, to illnesses, but also to economic and market pressures. Factors, which, in 2024, brought the total production to 225.8 million hectoliters, the lowest level of the last 60 years (-4.8% compared to 2023). In 2024, the global consumption of wine was estimated at 214.2 million hectoliters, dropping by -3.3% compared to the already low level of 2023. According to Oiv, the drop in demand in main markets, combined with to high average prices leaded by low production volumes, and persisting effects of occurred inflation made the year difficult even if some key markets showed resilience in front of difficulties. Export chapter. If the total volume remained relatively low, attesting at 99.8 million of hectoliters (in line with 2023, but in drop by -5% compared to five years’ average), this was compensated by a strong value of exports which reached 35.9 billion euros. The average price maintained itself stable (3.6 euros per liter) in line with the record level reached in 2023.
Looking at the geographical distribution of the vineyard, in the European Union, in 2024, data talks about 3.2 million of hectares of vineyards (-0.8%). The moderate expansions registered in Italy, Romania, and Greece didn’t compensate the removals of vineyards in other countries. At a national level, Spain, the greatest vineyard in the world, covers 930,000 hectares in 2024, but it lost 14,500 (-1.5%) compared to 2023. Behind, there is France (-0.7%) with 783,000 hectares, country which had to cope also with extirpation. On the contrary, Italy continued its positive trend reaching 728,000 hectares of vineyards overall (+0.8% compared to 2023). Among the seven greatest vineyards in the world, Italy was the only one to register a positive growth. At the third place, there is continental China with 753,000 hectares (-0.4%), in front of Italy, Turkey (402,000 hectares, -1%), the Usa (385,000 hectares, -0.7%), Argentina (200,000 hectares, -2.4%), Romania (187,000 hectares, +0.1%), India (185,000 hectares, +1.8%), Portugal (173,000 hectares, -5.1%).
At a productive level, in 2024, according to Oiv report, the global production of wine, excluding juices and musts, is estimated at 225.8 million hectoliters with a drop of -4.8% compared to that of 2023. It is the second year in a row characterized by a strong drop, and the lowest production level since 1961 (219 million hectoliters) when spring frosts hit the main vineyards of Southern Europe, particularly in France. As in 2023, extreme or atypical weather events affected in a determining way the global production with untimely frosts, strong rainfalls, and prolonged drought which had a dramatic impact on the productivity of vineyard. Moreover, in some regions, this low production reflects also the drop in consumption volumes. 2024 data considers the volume of production of wine grapes harvested in the first semester of 2024 in the austral hemisphere, and in the second semester of 2024 in Southern hemisphere.
The production in the European Union, in 2024, was estimated at 138.3 million hectoliters (-3.5% compared to 2023), the lowest production volume registered at the beginning of the century, lower also compared to that of 2017 (141.5 million hectoliters). The impact of climate change was significant. Italy confirmed to be the greatest wine producer in the world, and one of the few countries with positive sign thanks to 44.1 million hectoliters (+15% compared to 2023), even if the volume of 2024 is still lower of 6% compared to five year average. The adverse weather conditions affected most Italian wine regions, particularly in the North, where a significant part of vineyards was hit by hailstorms.
France, second in world classification, produced a volume of 36.1 million hectoliters in 2024, but 11.1 million of hectoliters (-23.5%) went lost compared to 2023 (-17.9% on five year average, the lowest production level since 1957). The drop of French wine production in 2024, said Oiv, is, still another time, attributable to the adverse weather conditions all over the country from the blossoming to harvest, which had an impact on wine regions with problems such as continuous rainfalls, epidemics of fungal diseases (first of all mildew), scarce blossoming, drought, and hailstorms which reduced the yields. Spain maintains its position of third wine producer in the world with a production volume, in 2024, of 31 million hectoliters (+9.3%) but lower by 11.1% compared to five year average. This increase, leaded by relatively positive harvests in Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura, represents a partial recovery of serious droughts in 2023, but ongoing water stress continues to represent a challenge for vine growers. Italy, France, and Spain, put together, represent the half of wine production in the world (49.3%). At the fourth place, there are the Usa (21.1 million of hectoliters, -17.2%, data influenced by the harvest of California, the scarcest one since 2004) preceding Argentina (10.9 million of hectoliters, +23.3%), Australia (10.2 million of hectoliters, +5.3%), Chile (9.3 million of hectoliters, -15.6%), South Africa (8.8 million of hectoliters, -5.1%), Germany (7.8 million of hectoliters, -9.8%), Portugal (6.9 million of hectoliters, -8.2%).
The world consumption of wine, in 2024, always reports Oiv, is estimated at 214,2 million hectoliters, -3.3% compared to 2023. If this estimate is confirmed, it would be the lowest volume registered since 1961 (213.6 million hectoliters). 2024 confirmed the negative trend of wine consumption registered in 2023. The drop in the demand in main markets, combined with high average prices, leaded by low production volumes, and persisting effects of occurred inflation made the year difficult. Without forgetting that the progressive decrease of consumption was influenced also by the evolution of lifestyle, by changed social habits, and generational changes. The result is that fifteen out of the first twenty markets in the world registered a reduction of consumption in 2024 compared to 2023. The EU represents a wine market of 103.6 million of hectoliters corresponding to 48% of world consumption (-2.8% compared to the previous year, and -5.2% compared to the five year average).
In the Usa, the greatest wine market at a world level, consumption decreased by -5.8% compared to 2023 attesting at 33.3 million of hectoliters. France, in 2024, remained the leader in wine consumption in Europe with a consumption estimated at 23 million hectoliters dropping by 3.6% compared to 2023, and by 4.9% compared to five year average. Italy, second consumer of European wine, and third in the world, registered a level of consumption of 22.3 million of hectoliters in 2024, a volume in line with 2023 (+0.1%), and lower than 3.6% compared to the five year average. Germany, third market of the Eu, has a consumption volume estimated at 17.8 million hectoliters in 2024 (-3% compared to 2023). Consumption down also in the Uk (12.6 million hectoliters, -1%), but not in Spain (+1.2% at 9.9 million of liters), and in Russia (8.1 million hectoliters, +2.4%), while the hemorrhage of consumption in China (consumer No. 10 in the world) decreased to 5.5 million liters in 2024 (-19.3% compared to 2023): in 2019, consumption in the country of the Dragoon was at 15 million liters. The global volume of wine exports in 2024 remained at the lowest level since 2010 attesting at 99.8 million hectoliters with a moderate drop of 0.1% compared to 2023. The value of global export of wine is estimated at 35.9 billion euros (-0.3%). Analogously, the average price to export maintained itself stable at 3.60 euros per liter showing a marginal drop of -0.3% compared to 2023. The overall level of prices, in 2024, remained relatively high. A result, which, according to Oiv, derives from a combination of different factors: on the one hand, the tendency to premiumization began some decades ago which became increasingly more pronounced in the last years; on the other hand, the low volumes of production, and persisting global inflation pressures, in the last years, contributed significantly to the high price levels observed compared to pre-pandemic period. It is worth underlining that sparkling wine registered a drop by 3.7% in terms of trade value, while volume slightly decreased by 0.3% compared to 2023.
Italy, the biggest world exporter of wine in volume reversed the downward trend, began in 2021, growing by 3.2% at 21.7 million of hectoliters, and by 5.6% in value reaching 8.1 billion euros. It is the highest third volume of export in the history of Italy. A positive performance mainly leaded by sparkling wines, particularly by Prosecco, which increased by 12% in volume, and by 9% in value. Also bottled wine registered a good performance in 2024 thanks to a +4.1% in volume, and a +4.8% in value. Spain maintained the second position among the greatest wine exporters in volume in 2024 but, compared to 2023, it decreased by almost a million of hectoliters attesting at 20 million, the lowest level of the last ten years. Despite this drop in volume, the value of exports increased by 1.4% reaching 3 billion euros. At the third place, considering export volumes, France is still another rime leader in value of exports. In 2024, it exported 12.8 million hectoliters (+0.7% compared to 2023) generating 11.7 billion euros of turnover from exports (-2.4% compared to 2023). While bottled wine registered a very similar ongoing to the previous year, sparkling wines decreased by 2.4% in volume, and 6.5% in value with a drop of price of 4.2%. Chile, fourth world export of wine, registered a strong recovery in 2024 with export volumes increasing to 7.8 million hectoliters (+14.4%), and a volume of 1.5 billion euros (+6.1%). Australia wine recovered significantly in 2024 with an increase of 6.9% in volume at 6.5 million of hectoliters, and an increase of 30.6% in value at 1.6 billion euros. In 2024, the volume of wine exports of South Africa grew by 3.4% reaching 3.6 million hectoliters, while the value of exports reached a yearly increase higher than 5% reaching 600,000 million euros. In the top ten of exporters, there are also Portugal, Germany, New Zealand, and the Usa. On the down side, looking to import countries, in 2024, Germany, the Uk, and the Usa maintained their leader position in import representing overall 38.3% of total volume of imported wine at a world level, and 37.2% in terms of value. Particularly, Germany confirmed the greatest wine import in the world in volume with 12.7 million hectoliters, dropping by 6.9% compared to 2023, the lowest level in the last twenty years. Drops in volumes in all categories were observed, particularly among sparkling wines (-17.2%). Germany is at the third position for overall value of import with 2.5 billion euros (-8.8%) compared to 2023. The Uk, second import market, interrupted the negative trend which began in 2020 reaching 12.6 million of hectoliters (+2.4% compared to 2023). The value of imports remained stabl e at 4.6 billion euros with a slight drop of 0.7%. After a significant drop in 2023, the Usa are third for volume of wine imports with 12.3 million hectoliters (+0.1%/2023), and at the first place for value of wine imports with 6.3 billion euros (+1.6%/2023). The bottled wine is the main imported category, representing, respectively, 56% and 71% in volume and value. But, imports of bulk wine in 2024 (representing 37% of the imported total volume) reduced significantly by 13.3% in volume, and 12.4% in value. France and the Netherlands, the major importers in volume inside the Eu after Germany, showed downward trends in 2024. France reached the lowest volume since 2016 with 5.4 million of hectoliters (-9.7%), mainly due to the drop of bulk wine (-11.9%) with a consequent drop in value at 900 million of euros (-8.4%). The Netherlands imported for less than 4 million hectoliters for the first time since 2016 with 3.9 million of hectoliters (-10.7%) for a value of 1.5 billion euros (-2.2%). Canada, seventh importer in volume at a world level, stops at 3.8 million hectoliters (+0.7%) for a value of 1.9 billion euros (+4.2%).
In 2024, Italy imported 2.9 million of hectoliters of wine with a substantial increase of 65.6% compared to 2023. In value, one talks about 500 million euros, +10.4% compared to the previous year. Bulk wine represents a significant share (86%) of the total of imported volume with an increase of 74.2% in volume, and of 84% in value compared to 2023. The volume of wine imports to continental China concluded a decrease lasted 6 years reaching 2.8 million hectoliters (+13.7% compared to 2023) for a value of 1.5 billion euros (+37.6%). Belgium, with 2.8 million hectoliters for a value of 1.2 billion euros, registered a drop both in volume (-6.7%) and value (-0.2%), with reductions registered in all wine categories apart from the value of sparkling wine imports (+7.4%). In 2024, Japan imported 2.4 million hectoliters (+2.9%), but the value decreased by 7.7% to 1.5 billion euros. Sparkling wine, which represents 39% of the total value, remained stable in volume, but decreased by 12.6% in value. Portugal registered a strong drop of 28% in the volume of wine imports in 2024, descending to 2.1 million hectoliters. The overall value of imports dropped to 152 million euros (-20.2%/2023).