Italian wine: export, consumption, prices down (with many downgradings). “Brave choices are needed”

The fact that this prolonged period has become extremely challenging for the global and Italian wine sectors, due to a global context marked by both “physical” and trade wars, widespread economic difficulties, and growing health-consciousness among consumers, is now well established. Likewise, it is a recognized fact that for Italian wine in particular, the “seriously ill patient”, yet an irreplaceable foreign partner, is the United States. Nevertheless, by working to expand into other markets so as to broaden the customer base and offset losses in the U.S., and through even greater synergy among companies, industry organizations, and institutions, while also changing the approach to the Common Agricultural Policy (Cap) so that it increasingly focuses on development rather than income support, this difficult phase “which is neither the first nor the worst”, as Minister of Agriculture Francesco Lollobrigida stated, can be overcome. The sector can weather this storm, perhaps “losing a few pieces along the way”, but still emerge strong. In essence, this was the message which emerged from the assembly of Unione Italiana Vini (Uiv), held today in Rome at the National Council for Economics and Labour (Cnel), chaired by Renato Brunetta (who is also a wine producer in Lazio through the Capizucchi winery). One of the central topics discussed was the long-debated issue of supply regulation, which, according to the organization headed by Lamberto Frescobaldi, should involve suspending the granting of new vineyard planting authorizations for the next 2 years and reducing yields, including for PDO and PGI wines, while rejecting the idea of vine-pull schemes funded through Cmo funds.
The figures presented by Uiv speak for themselves: despite three consecutive “light” harvests between 2023 and 2025, in May 2026, cellar stocks - including both wine and musts - exceeded 53 million hectoliters (at +7.3% compared to May 2025). This corresponds to an entire harvest remaining unsold in storage and represents the highest inventory level since 2022 (although that year inherited the effects of an exceptionally large harvest of nearly 50 million hectoliters). These difficulties in placing product on the market, against a backdrop of stagnating consumption both domestically (-2% in large-scale retail sales from January to May 2026 compared with the same period in 2025) and internationally (wine exports in the first quarter of 2026 fell by -4% in volume and -8.3% in value), are fueling declassifications, i.e. the downgrading of wines into lower categories (for example, from DOCG to DOC, from DOC to IGT, or from IGT to table wine). This entails significant value losses, amounting to 364 million euros (10%) for PDO wines and 152 million euros (14%) for PGI wines, for a total loss of 516 million euros, corresponding to 11% overall. In practical terms - according to the UIV Observatory presented by Secretary General Paolo Castelletti - wineries are moving inventory into the category which is easiest to sell on the market, that of table wine, as a damage-control strategy. The downside, however, is that this continues to erode value levels. Bulk wine prices provide a clear indicator: during the first 5 months of the year, prices fell by 6% for PDO wines, 7% for PGI wines, and 14.4% for table wines, which absorbed 75% of all declassifications and recorded the lowest average price at just 0.54 euros per liter.
This situation therefore requires decisive action. “A wrong decision is better than no decision at all. Under current market conditions - said Uiv president Lamberto Frescobaldi - even a harvest of 44 million hectoliters is no longer sustainable. The time has come to take responsibility for courageous decisions, even if they are unpopular, because inaction is already costing the sector far more than any rebalancing measures ever could. Overproduction is affecting value and profitability across the entire supply chain. We must protect a sector which accounts for 1.1% of Gdp and makes a decisive contribution not only to Italy trade surplus (+7.2 billion euros), but also to the prosperity of local territories and the preservation of the landscape. Italian wine has entered a new phase in both history and its own history”. According to Frescobaldi, “this is a phase which can’t be interpreted using the tools of the past, because it is not only the wine market that has changed. The entire world in which wine is produced, traded, and consumed has changed”.
Italian wine must therefore face this phase with a long-term strategy while also implementing short-term measures, Frescobaldi added, outlining Uiv proposed actions: “Suspend the allocation of new vineyard planting authorizations, reducing them to 0% for 2 years; strengthen traceability and transparency of production potential by completing the alignment of the vineyard register with the Sian database, setting clear deadlines for harvest declarations, and introducing more effective controls on land used for table grapes to prevent market distortions; reduce production yields, including for PDO and PGI wines; and reject vine-pull schemes financed through the Cmo, whose resources should remain focused on investments, competitiveness, innovation, and promotion. At the same time, a vision for the next 5 to ten 10 is needed. A strategy built on two major pillars: adapting production to evolving domestic and international demand, and strengthening the competitiveness of Italian wine on global markets”.
As noted, those markets are under strain. Italian wine exports worldwide remain negative (-8.3% in value during the first quarter of 2026), and the expected rebound in U.S. demand has yet to materialize. Contributing factors include tariffs, the depreciation of the dollar, and, above all, the structural decline in wine consumption in the United States, which has now been shrinking for 5 consecutive years. During the first four months of 2026, export value declined by a further 15.4%, following a -9.2% drop the previous year. “From April 2025 to March 2026 - said Castelletti - our exports to the United States fell by 17%, creating a trend gap of approximately 340 million euros in value. The thesis that Americans will continue buying our products despite tariffs is a nice story to tell, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain in reality. For wine, tariffs were the straw that broke the camel’s back, but we are seeing difficulties across other flagship sectors of traditional Made in Italy products as well. I think about food, machinery, and furniture, for example. Today’s imperative is to multiply our presence in the world largest market through the tools of commerce rather than through the increasingly concerning dynamics of politics”.
According to the analysis of Federico Petroni, Limes Americas Coordinator and Academic Coordinator of the Limes School, maintaining a strong presence in this market requires a clear understanding of the profound transformations taking place in the principal destination market for Italian wine. “In the United States, it is not only a consumer generation which is changing - explained Petroni - but the very composition of America itself, within a structural paradigm shift of which the Trump administration is more a consequence than a cause. As the Baby Boomer era fades, a country with different cultural references is emerging. For Italian wine, this means engaging with audiences that can no longer be reached through the same language and approaches used in the past. New tools will be needed, along with an ever-greater ability to engage with a more pluralistic America, where renewal is occurring simultaneously along generational, ethnic, and geographic lines”. The challenge, therefore, is to reposition and endure, while at the same time seeking to restore greater predictability to transatlantic relations.
Regarding U.S. tariffs, with the technical expiry of the temporary tariff regime introduced under Section 122 of the Trade Act now approaching, Alfredo Conte, deputy director general for Europe and director for International Trade Policy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, commented: “the uncertainty concerns the form more than the substance. In all likelihood, after July 24th, measures of equivalent value will come into force. The final outcome will not change and will not exceed 15%”.
“The Government and diplomatic services are working tirelessly, with particular attention to the Italian wine sector, including through increased funding - said Matteo Zoppas, president of Ita-Italian Trade Agency - these resources must be coordinated and put to use to support companies in their promotional activities, and we are already doing so, starting with the United States itself, including support for participation in Vinitaly.USA. Thanks to the additional funds made available by the Government, we are making participation less costly for companies, while also investing more heavily in incoming buyer programs. We must also continue advancing along the path of trade agreements”.
In this scenario, Italian wine is increasingly more being called upon to reduce its exposure to geopolitical, trade, and regulatory risks through a “de-risking” approach, beginning with the European domestic market, considered a “safe harbor” for wine demand (Italian wine exports to the EU have grown by +31% over the past 6 years, double the average growth recorded in non-EU markets). However, the European market remains too fragmented due to technical barriers, differing national interpretations, and a tendency toward overregulation: “the real cost of Europe is “non-Europe”. European companies bear not only the cost of internal barriers but also that of a fragmented single market  - declared Carlo Alberto Carnevale Maffè, professor of Strategy at SDA Bocconi School of Management -  in the agri-food sector alone, this lack of integration is worth approximately 57 billion euros. It is a hidden cost which falls on businesses every day in the form of duplicated administrative requirements, non-harmonized regulations, differing tax systems, and compliance burdens. For companies competing globally, it is paradoxical to have to deal, in effect, with 27 different markets within the European Union. Truly completing the single market doesn’t simply mean simplifying procedures; it means restoring competitiveness to European businesses and freeing up resources for innovation, investment, and growth”.
Institutional support has also been crucial and has not been lacking, as Minister of Agriculture Francesco Lollobrigida emphasized. He once again highlighted the many measures adopted for wine and for agriculture in general, as well as the initiatives led at European level in support of the sector. He also announced the next phase of the institutional campaign promoting wine culture: “we are currently filming the second commercial following the initiatives launched in recent months. A few years ago, it would have been hard to imagine a government declaring through an advertising campaign that wine and Italy are one and the same. But we had the courage to do it”.
The close relationship between Italian institutions and the wine sector was also underscored by a message from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni: “wine represents an irreplaceable component of our cultural heritage, our history, and our traditions.
Wine contributes to the appeal which Italy exerts throughout the world because it is an iconic product that embodies who we are and what we do best. Wine is synonymous with excellence, craftsmanship, care for the landscape, and love towards the territory.
Together with you and the entire Wine Round Table, which met last year at Palazzo Chigi, we discussed the future of the sector. I personally committed to creating, for the first time, an institutional campaign promoting responsible wine consumption. That commitment, thanks to the work of the Ministry of Agriculture and Minister Lollobrigida, became reality within just a few months. These initiatives reaffirm the Government support for the sector - wrote Meloni - and complement the numerous measures we have dedicated to enhancing and strengthening the agri-food industry, a coordinated effort backed by an unprecedented financial commitment in the history of the Italian Republic, amounting to more than 16 billion euros in less than four years. Promotion lies at the heart of this strategy. We want to continue supporting Italian wine in international markets, promoting the excellence of our products, enhancing our regions, and celebrating the Italian culture of conviviality. This is the richness that your wineries are able to convey, and which attracts millions of tourists and enthusiasts from around the world to wine-producing regions every year. The recognition of Italian Cuisine as Unesco Intangible Cultural Heritage confirms the uniqueness of our values and represents the culmination of this journey”.
Yet, as already noted, the path ahead for Italian wine appears to be more challenging than the decades of uninterrupted growth which now seem like a distant memory, despite having enabled Italian wines to become leaders in many countries around the world. To ensure that this remains the case, “the difficulties of the international environment must not become an excuse for postponing reflection on the sector structural weaknesses. Data - concluded Frescobaldi - outlines a picture which requires attention. Stocks remain high, global demand continues to show signs of slowing, and the mismatch between production and consumption remains one of the sector main unresolved issues. Italy continues to be the world leading wine producer and the only major wine-producing country to have expanded its vineyard area over the past 5 years. At the same time, the global market is experiencing a contraction in trade and increasingly selective demand. This is not about questioning our country vocation for wine production. Rather, it is about recognizing that the wine world is entering a new historical phase”.