Fine wines and fine dining are worth €58 billion. And they can grow further, especially in the East

Fine wine is a niche yes, but up to a point. Because the market for fine wine labels (still mostly French, but with Italy growing strongly) is worth 30 billion euros worldwide, rising to 58 billion, with fine dining’s 28, a value reached thanks to a 27% growth from 2022 to 2024, of which Europe, hosting half of the approximately 14,000 high-end restaurants in the world, for which wines represent, in some cases, up to 40% of revenues, worth 6-7 billion. And it is a market that grew steadily over the years, until the pandemic stopped, and then experienced a major rebound, at least until 2024. And even now that the economic turmoil is stronger than ever, and the scenario as uncertain as ever, it is a sector that seems destined to hold out better than others, perhaps, and even to grow again, between now and 2030, provided that companies know how to stimulate demand, responding to that increasingly strong demand for experiential luxury, and to expand toward the East a market that is still predominantly Western, between Europe and the U.S., with a need to broaden the horizon made even more pressing by the tariff issue. It emerges from the first Altagamma-Bain Fine Wines and Restaurants Market Monitor, presented at Vinitaly in the presence of Matteo Lunelli, chairman of Altagamma and president and Ceo of Ferrari Trento, leader of Trentodoc, and Maurizio Zanella, Altagamma vice president for Food and president and founder of Ca’ del Bosco, an icon of Franciacorta, Claudia D’Arpizio senior partner and global head of Fashion and Luxury at Bain & Company, and with comments from Giampiero Bertolini, ceo of Biondi-Santi, the historic winery that gave birth to Brunello di Montalcino, Enrico Buonocore, ceo and founder of Langosteria Group, and Stevie Kim, managing partner of Vinitaly, moderated by Sole 24 Ore journalist Sebastiano Barisoni.
“Despite representing only 1.5% of the total volume of the wine market”, explained Claudia D'Arpizio, among others, “high-end wines generate 11% of the value. Although smaller than other luxury sectors such as fashion (20-25%) and cosmetics (15-20%), fine wine maintains a primary role in the high-end sector. Although mostly the preserve of French wines, especially on the bubbly side with Champagne, and this is something to work on a lot. Just as very important is to work on opening up the Asian market, where penetration is still very low, and where the most interesting growth margins are”. Net, of course, of an upheaval in the world economic picture, linked to the most stringent current events. Not least because, after a decade of steady growth, the fine wines sector, the report explains, has seen a slight decline of -2/-3% in 2024, the first real slowdown outside the pandemic period, mainly due to increased caution in consumption, driven by inflation, and the rise of trends such as moderation of alcohol consumption among the younger generation.
“Fine wines”, added Matteo Lunelli, ”are confirmed as a pillar of the high-end worldwide. A sector that has grown from 18 to 30 billion euros in value in the last 15 years and that, despite a slight decline in 2024, is estimated to increase by 4-6% annually until 2030. Fine dining is also experiencing strong growth and significant format transformation since the pandemic due to the increasingly experiential demand for luxury. Italy must continue to seize the opportunities offered by these sectors aware that fine wines and fine dining are a great opportunity for our country and irreplaceable ambassadors of our culture, our territories and our lifestyle in the world”.
“Fine wine is at the crossroads of luxury, celebration and investment”, Claudia D’Arpizio further added, “it is an integral part of daily pleasure for the wealthy, a symbol of special moments for many consumers and a collector’s item for investors. It is more than just a drink: it represents prestige, passion, joy, conviviality and a love of quality”.
In particular, the study reveals, the fine wine market is a fragmented, tradition-driven and still Western market. The fine wine industry, Altagamma and Bain explain, is composed of both large brands and a myriad of small producers. The top 10 brands (almost all French) hold 35% of the market, a share similar to that of personal luxury (39%) and high-end design (29%), but there is a “long tail” with more than 400 players. Despite its tradition, the market is still strongly Western-centric: in 2024 Europe produced 75% of fine wine, and Europe and the Americas absorbed 80 % of consumption. Asia-Pacific and the Middle East account for only 5% of production and 20% of demand, but show strong growth potential. Again, looking at the main trends, it emerges that he last decade has seen a marked process of premiumization in fine wine consumption, with the focus increasingly on quality over quantity. This trend, reinforced after the pandemic, makes fine wine a “resilient” resource, even in times of economic uncertainty. Looking at Italy, in particular, it emerges that between 2015 and 2024 the big Italian brands maintained Ebit margins of 15-17%, despite the turmoil. Despite France’s dominance-nine of the top 10 brands and a 95% share of retail value-Italy's diversity offers unique growth potential and storytelling opportunities, with 20 wine regions and 1,000 grape varieties (versus France’s 13 regions and 250 varieties). Looking ahead, the high-end wine market is built on a solid foundation and is expected to grow steadily. The total value is expected to rise from an estimated 30 billion euros by 2024 to around 35-40 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of between 4% and 6% from 2025. However, rising trade tensions and the introduction of new tariffs, especially on European exports to the United States, could slow some of this growth. In particular, the entry segment of the high-end wine market could be affected. Western markets will remain central, but emerging regions such as Asia and the Middle East will offer new opportunities. Meanwhile, the consolidation process will continue to transform the industry. Looking at high-end dining, however, the report shows that the high-end restaurant segment is on the upswing, growing by 27% between 2022 and 2024, worth 28 billion. Europe leads the way, with more than half of the world’s 14,000 high-end restaurants. While traditional formats still dominate, immersive experiences (combining food, entertainment, conviviality and sociability) are on the rise and could account for 15-20% of the market in 2024. Wine remains the protagonist: in some starred restaurants, wine pairings account for up to 40% of sales, with an estimated total of €6-7 billion in 2024. More than 50% of wine consumed away from home is sparkling wine (both champagne and other varieties) - largely associated with celebratory occasions, but also increasingly integrated into wine tourism experiences. Post-pandemic, in paaticular, customers seek authenticity, sharing and emotional engagement, turning restaurants into cultural and social hubs.
What emerged from the debate, in particular, was the great predominance of French wine, in the luxury segment, with Italian wine now having a recognized quality of the highest level, on a par with that of French wines, but still lagging behind in terms of prestige and especially values. To be made up, according to all, with an old recipe that has never been put into practice: change promotion strategy, and move more compactly, especially in new and distant markets where the reputation of Italian wine is all to be built. “The difference between Italian wine and French wine, is the same between the Italian people and the French people: the Italians are more individualistic, they do a very fragmented communication, while the French move and tell their stories together, at least in appearance”, Stevie Kim commented. Certainly, the complexity of Italian wine, compared to French wine, journalist Sebastiano Barisoni also mentioned, does not make things easier, and finding a solution is not easy. “Indeed, perhaps it is impossible” Maurizio Zanella, patron of Ca’ del Bosco, said for his part. Stressing, however, that “it is true that in the short term simplicity pays off and that communicating variety and complexity takes more time and effort, but in the long run it pays off. After all, even the French have been telling the value of their great appellations for a long time, but today what creates value is the corporate brand, as in the case of Burgundy, where the brands win more than the appellation. What is certain is that Italy must unite at the global communication level: you cannot see regions competing with each other, without first having done a coordinated promotion of the country. What is missing is a control room that avoids wasting money and resources. But a great impulse,” Zanella added, “could come from the Unesco recognition of Italian Cuisine, which will be extraordinarily important, and will push all operators, I hope, to work with a stronger quality standard than in the past. “If we want to go to countries like Asia, where we are undersized”, said Giampiero Bertolini, “we have to make a group effort, and we are not very good at that, even at the consortium level. These are different countries, many buy the label, and not the quality of the wine, so if there is no strength of the brand we will not go very far”. But there is also another aspect, which starts from the inside, as Enrico Buonocore of Langosteria pointed out, “If we look at our catering, Italian wine lists are full of French wines. There are practically no Italian wines on French restaurant lists. There is a cultural issue: today if a customer asks for a great wine in a restaurant, the sommelier often goes to a French wine, even in Italy. We tell ourselves that we are good at “home”, even with a certain pride, but then ... Langosteria wants to bring to the world “an organized Italianness”, becoming a brand means having organization, which is what is missing. Italian hospitality is No. 1, how Italian welcomes no one, and we need to bring it to the world, but we need more managerial education. We need to build people, who can manage the ristornati as if the property managed them. Location becomes important, we are already in Paris and St. Moritz, we will open in London and Madrid in spectacular locations. But we have to remember that our industry cannot detach itself from humanity, it can be managerialized but not standardized, otherwise it becomes Mc Donald’s. Training is key, investing in analysis of what’s going on in the restaurant is key, next profiling customers, but everyone is different: the first 3 minutes are when you create the conditions to grow the spend: a good welcome, escorting the customer to the table, having the waiter immediately present. If all this works in the right world, you create the conditions to work better. And also to sell more wine, or more premium bottles, because the customer is comfortable and is willing to reward themselves and the experience they are having”.