Two billion of export at risk, consumption to be refound: wine challenges of “year zero” of duties

Hit by duties wanted by the Usa of Donald Trump, which are not a promise anymore, but a reality to be analyzed, evaluated, and, at the same time, and to which one has to react, and by the wind of young consumption which is changing fast, and to which the sector is called to act changing, first of all, its approach to become more accessible, and increase its appeal towards new generations, wine copes with what can be defined “year zero”. But, a new beginning means also opportunity and alarmism can and must be canceled in favor of effective pragmatism and an overview with the conviction that Italian wine can continue to write its history with success and prestige. Usa duties and radical transformation of consumption among young people were discussed at meeting “Tra dazi e rivoluzione dei consumi: il vino a una svolta storica?” - “Between duties and consumption revolution: wine at a historical turn?”, organized, today, by Federvini at Vinitaly 2025, in Verona, with the participation, together with president Federvini Micaela Pallini, senator Luca De Carlo, president permanent Commission industry, trade, tourism, agriculture, and agri-food production of the Senate Albiera Antinori, president Gruppo Vini Federvini Bruna Boroni, director Industry away from home Tradelab Stevie Kim, managing partner Vinitaly Alberto Mattiacci, full professor of Economics and business management at the University Sapienza of Rome, and of Denis Pantini, responsible Agrifood & Wine Monitor Nomisma.
The theme of duties which is catalyzing the attention of the sector was obviously central. According to data elaborated by Nomisma Wine Monitor for Federvini, the export of Italian wine to the Usa is worth almost 2 billion euros a year with a net prevalence of Pdo wines: Us market represents 24% of world export of Italian wine by itself and, the introduction of duties up to 20% would put at risk the competitive balance of made in Italy for Federvini with an increase in average prices to the import of Pdo wines which could vary of +0.90 euros/liter for Prosecco, and up to +2.60 euros/liter for Piedmontese red wines, and +2.40 euros/liter for Tuscan red wines. All are at risk, but the weight is different: among the most exported wines in 2024 to the Usa, white wines from Trentino and Friuli affected for 48% for the value of total export, followed by red wines from Tuscany (40%), red wines from Piedmont (40%), white wines from Tuscany, and Veneto (29%), Prosecco (27%), red wines by Sicily (20%), region in which white wines are worth 14%, red wines from Veneto (12%), Asti (10%), and white wines from Lazio (8%). Considering that, Federvini makes that notice, “from the customs to the shelf, wine price increases on average by 4 times (at the light of Us distributional system, which, according to the law, establishes three intermediate passages – importer, distributor, retailer – before arriving to the consumer), and in a market context where countries such as Chile, Australia, and Argentina, but mainly Californian producers, offer wines at lower prices (without forgetting the “strength” of white wines from New Zealand on the market, hit in a lower measure from duties, ed), the risk of disintermediation of Italian wine from distributional channels is concrete”.
With Trump duties, import average prices change, explained Denis Pantini (Nomisma-Wine Monitor), from 6.47 euros per liter to 7.77 for Italian wine in the category of still and sparkling wines, while, for France, leader in value, from 10.97 to 13.17 euros. For sparkling wines, Italy passes from 5.16 to 6.19 euros, France from 21.52 to 25.82 euros. In “off-premise” channel, and, therefore, from the great distribution, very important in the Usa, and on which price factor affects much, Italy, for still wines, in 2024, took 7.6% of sales, second country in the world behind only to “masters of the house” of California (66.8%). Which, now, this is the fear, it can increase still more, drawing on a still higher competitive price (in 2024, 0.75 liter bottle had an average price of 8.93 dollars against 11.48 of Italy). The “consumer servery” on the main concurring wines of Italy sees France leading (43%), Usa (39%), and New Zealand (22%) for white wines, France (47%), and the Usa (37%) for red wines, the Usa (42%), France (41%), and Spain (22%) for rosè wines. But, if France has to “pay off” the same duties of Italy, it is easy to imagine that American wine share can grow, and remove space to Italian and European wine. Therefore, with the new duties, the shelf price in off-premise would raise to 13.2 dollars (0.75 liter bottle) for Italy, and to 19 dollars for France, while the gap with New Zealand would reduce (which passes from 13.4 to 14.2 dollars). Obviously, Californian wine would remain at 8.9 dollars, and, in 2025, with the duty, price differential would pass from +17% to +48%. It is not good news, considering that, from 2019 to 2024, Italian wine in the Usa grew in all its types apart from red wine (-2%) with a strong exploit for sparkling wines (+32%), and good results for sparkling wines (+6%), and white wines (+2%). On the contrary, the good news is that “an other half of our exports – said Denis Pantini to WineNews – finishes in on-premise channel, that of restoration, and, here, Italian restaurants will replace an Italian wine with a competitor in wine-list difficultly”, even if, even if “it can happen that those wines which don’t have a very strong brand risk to be replaced by wines of the same denomination, but cheaper”.
Then, Federvini made notice that “the growing preference for no alcohol and low alcohol wines is modifying consumption trends. Particularly, the sales of no alcohol wines in Germany, and in the Usa increased significantly with a growth in value in the last three years of 23%, and 54% respectively. An evidence which has to be read in a framework of a general reduction of who consumed wine at home, and out of home in the age range between 23 and 35 years in the last 12 months compared to three years ago (-32% in the Usa, -37% in the Uk, -39% in Germany, and -24% in France). Consumption declarations collected by Nomisma for the next 12 months highlight a growing a number of young consumers (23-35 years old) who will prefer low/no alcohol wines compared to traditional wine: 34% in the Usa, 25% in the Uk, 26% in Germany, and 20% in France”. On the contrary, regarding “the decisive factors for wine purchase in the last years, it emerges how the driver linked to green characteristics was important for 41% of British consumers aged between 23 and 35 years old, 35% of Americans, 32% of Germans, 38% of French people, and 34% of Spanish people. Price in Spain (for 50% of interviewed) becomes more relevant in the purchasing choice of a wine, as well as in France (40%), while in the Usa, and in Germany, brands stand out as leading among the criteria respectively for 37% and 35% of consumers. Anyway, it is interesting to notice that in all markets, for younger consumers, wine sustainability overcomes the interest towards organic”. The “frequent users”, people aged between 23 and 35 years who consumed wine 2-3 times a week are 18% in the Usa, 19% in Great Britain, 21% in Germany, 29% in France, and 27% in Spain, an other signal that tastes change.
Chapter “youngsters & wine”. Data highlighted by the surveys conducted by TradeLab for the Federation shows a deep transformation in the bond between youngsters and wine. In Italy, consumers aged between 23 and 34 years represent today 20% of the market in value, and 19% of overall visits in out of home. A range of age which generates 18% of the consumption of alcoholic drinks – preferring cocktail and smooth spirits (24%) compared to wine (13%) and bubbles (16%) - and, almost 30% of no alcohol consumption. However, during evening consumption, significant growth opportunities are seen for the consumption of wine and sparkling wines, especially during dinners and happy hours. When it comes to choose wine, youngsters tend to make it autonomously (95%) with a particular attention to price and sustainability, factors which most influence their decision compared to other criteria such as food pairing, or wine origin. Moreover, the interest towards low alcohol or no alcohol wines grows signaling a trend towards a lighter and more accessible beverage with 43% of Italians who declared to be willing to consume them, while 70% already know no alcohol or low alcohol wines.
President Federvini Micaela Pallini, always about duties, recalls that “Europe has already passed this moment, we hope that it is a temporary measure. Compared to 2018-2019 (Italy, differently from a country such as France, was not hit by duties, ed), we are in front of a different phase, American consumer lost his/her purchasing power. The situation is worrying, but we have to talk with a unique voice. In the meantime, protest voices begin in the Usa, let’s see what it will happen”. But, Pallini also underlined how, “at the same time, the audience of consumers is changing, and, with them, also product choice criteria. We have to be able to intercept and brace the tastes in evolution to be capable of ensuring an offer in line with the new trends”. To cope with the transition and maintain competitiveness, Federvini “states how an unitary diplomatic action at an European level is crucial to stop Usa duties which threaten denomination wines, symbol of Italian wine identity. It is necessary to adopt immediate fiscal measures as incentives for companies investing in innovation, sustainability, digitization, and internationalization. Moreover, it is fundamental to launch a new season of institutional promotion abroad to present Italian wine as symbol of quality, Mediterranean lifestyle, and awareness. In order to involve the new generations, it is fundamental to offer innovative and inclusive consumption experiences supported by stimulating and significant educational and cultural paths”.
Albiera Antinori, president Gruppo Vini Federvini, states that duties “will affect American consumers who will have less purchasing power. But, it is difficult to give a judge now, it is necessary to be able to negotiate. We don’t have to panic, but, rather, stay strong with supply chains. French wines had a collapse of 24%, but, then, they recovered, we don’t have an asset on which we don’t slip, and seeing also the ongoing of stock exchanges, who knows if there will be a rethinking about duties”. Antinori added that “today, our sector copes with great challenges: on the one hand, the risk of loosing market shares abroad, on the other hand the difficulties to communicate in an effective way with new generations. These are two fronts that can’t be ignored. We must be able to innovate language, use right channels, and involve young people in an authentic narration which is capable of raising emotions, and make people understand what there is behind a bottle of wine: origins, peculiarities of each territory, artisanship of processes, the footprint of the man in the research of style and quality, and the unrepeatable uniqueness of every vintage. Only in this way, we can build a solid and competitive future for our sector”.
Senator Luca De Carlo underlined how duties “on certain types of products will not have the hoped effect. But, those which are not at a high added value, and this is not the case of agri-food, will suffer. For this reason, it is necessary to find good agreements, and then, new markets, not to do a trade war”.
Matteo Zoppas, president Agenzia Ice announced the publication of an informative note (see focus) for companies, a tool replying to the most frequent questions and doubts. “Now – comments Zoppas – we are in the lowest point of negativity, but we can raise again. Now, buyers don’t give a millimeter, but a balance will have to be found where everyone can gain”.
Alberto Mattiacci, full professor of Economics and business management at the University Sapienza of Rome, more than about duties “which will pass”, is worried “for healthy attack. And, about young people, I say that they are disenchanted today, simplicity and lightness are necessary to conquer them again”.