Fine wines: 50% of professionals expect market recovery starting in 2027

The wine market is experiencing a very challenging moment, and even the fine wines segment, which until a few years ago seemed immune to the crisis, has suffered. According to the majority of industry insiders, recovery will take at least until 2027. Among the most prominent Italian territories, Piedmont, a bastion of classics, and Sicily, no longer an emerging Region, are making their way, and are in the spotlight more and more often. These are the results of the “Wine Lister Leagues” 2024 survey that interviewed more than 50 big players in the high-end wine market. The survey was carried out by Wine Lister, the portal specializing in collectible and investment wines, of the “Le Figaro” Group.
According to the survey, only 25% of industry insiders say the fine wines market will return to growth in 2025. Twenty-six percent (26%) expect a return in 2026, while the majority, 49%, indicate 2027 as the real horizon to aim for. There are, however, clear differences in the categories. For instance, 67% of auction house professionals think there will be growth in 2025, while the largest group of retailers and importers in the world (46% and 47%) each indicate 2026, as well as 67% of professionals in the “Place de Bordeaux” system.
There are also significant differences in sentiment in the various areas around the world. In Europe, 51% indicate 2026 as the year of recovery, while 27% are already aiming for 2025, and 22% for 2027. In America, 40% indicate 2025 and 40% indicate 2026, while 20% are thinking about 2027. The forecasts of professionals in Asia are more pessimistic, though. No one is thinking about growth in 2025, but 43% indicate 2026, and 57% say 2027 and later. To help stimulate the market, according to the professionals, “ex winery” prices need to be lowered (as clearly seen at the last Bordeaux en primeur), as well as recovery of Asian markets, lower interest rates, and greater political stability.
The territories expected to grow over the next five years, in spite of the difficulties of recent years, indicate, somewhat surprisingly, that Bordeaux is the most suitable territory. Then follows the Loire, Piedmont, Burgundy and Beaujolais, while some are also setting their sights on, among others, Champagne and Sicily. One of the wineries to keep an eye on, according to “Wine Lister”, in Italy, is the prestigious winery in Chianti Classico, Isole e Olena, which recently became part of the EPI Group of the Descours family. EPI also owns Biondi-Santi, the “cradle” of Brunello di Montalcino, as well as Champagne Charles Heidsieck, among others, and the majority of Folio Fine Wine Partners, a historic name in wine distribution in the USA, founded by the Mondavi family. There is also Chiara Condello, a small and young company led by the producer herself, Chiara Condello, in Emilia-Romagna. Furthermore, the“ Wine Lister” indicated one of the “ hidden gems” in Italy, Tenuta Sette Ponti, one of the most famous wineries in the Val d’Arno di Sopra area and beyond, of the Moretti Cuseri family.
Indications and ideas, all to be verified, in the near future, in a world that is changing ever more quickly and suddenly, in the wine sector, too.