Wine in Eu until 2035: in the next decade production, consumption and export estimated in drop

Until 2035, wine production and exports in the European Union are expected to decline, as well as consumption, mainly due to health-conscious trends and competition with other beverages. Younger generations, in fact, tend to drink less alcohol, and there is also a widespread preference for higher-end wines, which, however, are consumed less frequently, another possible reason for the slowdown in consumption. The largest decreases concern countries traditionally with high wine consumption (such as France and Germany), while the overall decline in demand for red wines is confirmed, alongside a growing demand for fresher, lighter, and easier-to-drink wines, such as sparkling and white wines. Meanwhile, sales of wine-based beverages, including non-alcoholic and low-alcohol options, are increasing, although volumes remain limited. This is estimated by the European Commission latest report on EU agricultural outlook with market projections up to 2035.
Regarding wine, the report states that consumption in the EU will fall by -0.9% per year until 2035, reaching about 19.3 liters per capita (down from an average of 21.2 liters on average in 2021-2025). Conversely, “other uses” (such as distillation or processing into finished products) should remain relatively stable at around 30 million hectoliters per year. Domestic consumption is the main outlet for the wine sector, accounting for 66% in 2021-2025, while exports represent 20%. Some of the main markets, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, are beginning to show consumption trends similar to those in the EU. As a result, wine production in the European Union could further decrease by -0.5% per year from now until 2035, meaning that by that date production will have fallen to 138 million hectoliters. Another decisive reason supporting the estimated production decline - assuming weather conditions and average yields remain stable, explains the report - could also be the projected -0.6% reduction in vineyard area by 2035.
In light of ongoing developments regarding U.S. tariffs and the high market uncertainty linked to them, the EU is temporarily affected by a drop in shipments to the United States, its main destination. At the same time, demand from the United Kingdom, the EU second-largest export market, is also decreasing. New markets in Latin America and Africa could offer opportunities, but their current shares remain too limited to significantly help stabilize EU exports. Overall, exports are expected to decrease by -0.6% and imports by -1.9% per year from now until 2035. But there is not just wine. And, in general, the EU Commission agricultural outlook indicates that production should slow during the considered period, partly due to adverse weather conditions, but should maintain self-sufficiency in cereals, meat, and dairy products, with an increase in net exports of certain types of fruit and olive oil. The latter sector is recovering thanks to higher yields and global consumption growth driven by the popularity of the Mediterranean Diet: conversely, table olive production seems to be slowing, although consumption remains high. Meat production, on the other hand, is expected to decline slightly, driven by consumers increasingly preferring white meat over red meat for reasons such as convenience, price, and concerns about sustainability and health. As for production, growth is expected for eggs (although at a slower pace than in the past 10 years) and also for apples, thanks to yield improvements despite reduced cultivated area (which, instead, negatively affected peaches). Tomato production will show, according to the report, opposing trends: while fresh product consumption is decreasing in some regions, processed products are expected to expand (thanks to investments and policy support), with increased consumption due to convenience, as well as growing demand for fresh tomatoes (due to the popularity of snacks) and higher imports and exports in a context of global competitive pressures.