Wine in the world accepts the change of challenge: winning card of “ProWein Business Report” 2026

Despite the many challenges, the wine sector, from production to trade, is approaching 2026 with full awareness of the difficult moment, but also with the determination to do everything possible to spark a new phase which may bring a renewed, even if modest, growth. And while the general “barometer” for the year which has just begun points to “stability”, there is no shortage of those who expect a slight recovery, looking with some optimism also toward 2027. Among the many wine categories, still white wines are once again considered the healthiest and the ones expected to deliver the best performance overall. Many, however, continue to bet on sparkling wines as well as on No-Lo wines. The “geography” of the most attractive export markets, those expected to grow the most, is also quite different from the recent past, with Germany, the Netherlands, and Japan on the podium, followed by Denmark and Poland. Major players such as the United Kingdom rank only eighth, while the United States, weighed down by tariff turmoil, fall back to position No. 19, between Vietnam and Hong Kong. These are some of the insights emerging from the “ProWein Business Report” 2026, produced as always by Geisenheim University and analyzed by WineNews ahead of ProWein 2026, taking place in Düsseldorf from March 15th to 17th. The event remains one of the most important in the international wine market, with a particular focus on Germany, second most important market for Italian wineries which will be present in slightly smaller numbers than in the recent past, yet still strongly represented (540 exhibitors, making Italy the second most represented country after Germany with 599, ed). Attention will also be on Northern and Eastern Europe, and not only.
According to industry players, rising costs will be the most significant challenge to face (75%), followed by the decline in the purchasing power of consumers (67%), and by reduced consumption linked to health-conscious trends (59%). This goes hand in hand with concerns over increasingly strict policies on the trade, promotion, and consumption of alcoholic beverages in general (57%). Many (52%) also point to the global economic crisis as a “threat” to market performance, along with shifting consumer preferences increasingly oriented toward other beverages. Meanwhile, issues such as climate change (37%) and labor shortages (30%) fall lower on the list of priorities. Surprisingly, restrictions on international trade (tariffs, non-tariff barriers, etc.) are expected to have a significant impact on the market for only 28% of respondents.
This sentiment comes after a complicated 2025, during which the majority of operators reported a decline in consumption volumes. This was confirmed by 57% of small wineries, 63% of cooperatives, 44% of large companies, and 67% of exporters, as well as 42% of importers and distributors, 62% of wholesalers, and 55% of specialized retailers. Restaurants show a different picture: while 66% report stable volumes, “only” 25% report a decline. A figure which is still three times higher than the 9% who report growth. A similar trend emerges on the pricing front: among producers of all sizes, just over half say customers purchased wines at the same prices as before, yet more than three out of four note a shift toward lower price segments. The commercial side of the supply chain confirms this trend in roughly the same proportions.
Looking at the products expected to perform best between 2026 and 2027, some notable differences emerge between producers and retailers. For both groups, white wines will once again be the strongest category: 69% of producers and 64% of the trade agree. But for producers, the next categories are zero-alcohol wines (54%), low-alcohol wines (49%), rosé wines (also 49%), and then sparkling wines (including Champagne, Prosecco, and Cava, at 48%). For retailers, however, sparkling wines take second place (61%), followed by No-Lo wines (54% and 53%) and rosé wines (51%). Confidence in red wines is very low across the board: only 13% of producers and 26% of importers, distributors, and merchants expect positive performance.
These sentiments confirm the deep transformation underway in the wine market, which is also evident from a “geographical” standpoint. The world largest wine market, the United States, is ranked only No. 19 among the most attractive markets, indicated by just 17% of respondents, largely due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs but not only. Overall, the “ProWein Business Report” 2026 notes that “a strong intra-European focus now dominates export strategies”. Germany is identified as the most attractive market for 2026, followed by the Netherlands and Japan. Next come Canada, Denmark, Poland, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Sweden, completing the Top 10. Brazil and China follow in positions No. 11 and 12, ahead of Belgium, Nigeria, Norway, Finland, Thailand, and Vietnam. All of these rank ahead of the United States, followed by Hong Kong, Singapore, the Czech Republic, Mexico, Austria, other Latin American countries, Latvia, Australia, Lithuania, India, and South Africa.
These themes and trends, highlighted by key players across the wine supply chain, will be under the spotlight at ProWein, where Italy, as it already happened in Paris, will play a leading role, ahead of its own major showcase: Vinitaly 2026, held at Veronafiere in Verona from April 12th to 15th.