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Allegrini 2018

WINE SUPPLY WORLD WIDE IS GREATER THAN DEMAND, AS THE 2015 VINTAGE IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, WHILE THE SOUTH IS FALLING, REVEALED THE RABOBANK REPORT ANALYZED BY WINENEWS

In the last few months, the wine world has been split down the middle: the southern hemisphere has been summing up its 2015 vintage, while in the North which is heavier volume wise, due to the wine producing countries Italy, France, Spain and United States, has been watching the upcoming harvest with optimism. As a result, the supply and demand of wine in the world, in the wake of 2014 and up to April 2015 still faces a product glut compared to consumption, albeit less than in 2013.

These are the findings in the "Wine Quarterly 3 2015" report by the Dutch institution Rabobank, as analyzed by WineNews, which producing countries and territories should take into account, in order to adjust, where necessary and possible, the levels of product to be placed on the market or stocked. According to the report, all indicators speak of a poorer harvest in 2015 than 2014 in the southern hemisphere: Australia (1.67 million tons of grapes against 1.70 over the past eight years, according to the Winemakers Federation of Australia). New Zealand (326,000 tons, 27% less than 2014 for the New Zealand Winegrowers); Argentina (11% less than 2014) and South Africa (1.5 million tons, down 1.1% according to the South African Wine Information System). The only notable exception is Chile. Official data is still lacking, but there is talk of a far more abundant than average vintage 2015, which raises fears of further pressure to lower prices since there is already so much Chilean wine on the market.

The northern hemisphere instead is waiting for the decisive climate trend in the next 2-3 months, while signs for the 2015 vintage show growth in the most important countries, with quantities at historical averages but well above the troubled 2014 vintage. At the moment, vineyards promise better volumes (and some even better quality) in France, especially in Bordeaux and Languedoc, in Italy (watch list Veneto and Prosecco), and also in Spain, in particular in Rioja, the most important region of Iberian viticulture. And even in the US, especially in California, where the harvest is expected to be slightly above the historical average in the state that produces more than 80% of all wine in the States. These are only temporary forecasts and evaluations for now, but it is necessary to keep an eye on them because, in the wine world like in any other sector at the mass consumption level, the relationship between demand and supply is critical to the price of wine and consequently to turnovers of wineries around the world.

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