LOOK AT THE PRICE: THE FEAR OF SURPLUS, CONSUMPTION GROWING IN THE WORLD AND PRICES INCREASING, CONSUMERS MIGHT "FLEE". THIS IS THE ALARM THE FIRST 2013 RABOBANK REPORT LAUNCHED

For years the wine world has had to find ways of reducing the risk of overproduction that pushed prices down. Now, however, after a particularly difficult 2012 harvest, at least in Europe, it has to face the opposite problem: consumption is growing globally, and prices are growing fast and uncontrolled so the fear is that consumers will “escape” to cheaper alcoholic beverages, such as beer.
This is what the first Rabobank report in 2013 reveals and explains that, "consumption cannot continue to exceed production as it has been doing now for six years. Inventory is now below the 2006 threshold by 75 million hectoliters. Decline in production and depleting stocks, make it obvious that consumption will be under pressure because of rising prices”, with significant consequences for both consumers and producers. To make this point clear, Rabobank used data on exports of Spanish bulk wine that fell 20% in 2012, right when the average price rose 33.7%. And the first “shut off” came from the markets that will be the future of European producers, Russia and China, which have reduced imports from Spain, respectively, 110 and 12 million liters. Russia is the real wake-up call, especially for Italy: the drastic cut on the purchase of Spanish bulk wine, accompanied an increase in quotas imported from countries such as South Africa, Brazil and former Soviet countries. Russia is not the only country sensitive to pricing, though. Germany, the second largest trading partner of Italian wine, may choose to contact the producers of the New World, or, and it would be the worst option, accept a decrease in imports. The Rabobank report offers dire predictions and concludes by explaining how "it will be important to test the reaction of the more sensitive markets to price policies on the next prices; that is, if they will accept higher prices, or will turn to beer and other alcoholic beverages".