Listening to the market while maintaining one’s identity: the future of wine according to producers

The conclusion is that one must be able to listen to the market while maintaining one’s own identity. In a baseline scenario that sees exports, for Italian wine, growing in 2023, and thus amounting to 7.8 billion euros, but with volumes up only for sparkling wines (5 million hectoliters), reds down sharply (5.3 million hectoliters) and whites down slightly (4.5 million hectoliters); imports, which, globally, are down on 2022 in value (but up sharply on 2010) and virtually stable in volume, with prospects for strong growth for sparkling wines looking ahead to 2027, with slight improvements for rosés and whites, but a steady decline for reds. All this, without forgetting the data from the Unione Italiana Vini-Vinitaly Wine Observatory, which predicts consumption to fall to 20 million hectoliters in the 2030/2039 decade, with the 25 to 64 age group “thinning out” and per capita wine consumption already down to 40 liters in 2023: the gap that beer once had, once deep, now glimpses breakeven (36 liters). With wine consumption curves outlining a transition increasingly oriented toward a contraction in volume and a concomitant greater focus on the premium segments of global, and particularly Italian, supply. An expenditure of global wine demand, Vinitaly notes, that has grown much more than the quantitative trend. A separate discussion, however, for the sparkling wine phenomenon, which, in particular with the “locomotive” Prosecco, has also seen export volumes rise by more than 200% in the last 13 years; a phenomenon to which the global trend of aperitifs and mixology are contributing in no small part, and which have generated a substantial and unprecedented balance among the Italian types destined for export. For the future, according to the Observatory, the challenge will be increasingly linked to the updating of wine consumption occasions in a context of strong competitiveness, with a beverage world that is proving to be more ready to embrace the changes of a less conservative demand than it once was. Data that are not all exciting with the wine world wondering about a tomorrow where there is no certainty, but nonetheless strong in a background from which to start again, net of phenomena that are now well known and where recipes for “recovery” leave questions, from climate change to the new “health” wave. The sector is sending a clear message that it is opening its doors to the outside world, to the demands and evolution of the market and consumers, but with flexibility, in some respects a necessary one, that must not undermine the style and history of Italian wine and its appellations, of that background that has taken the Italian wine sector to the top in the world, proving to be a vital asset for the entire national economy. Many themes were discussed in the institutional “session” “Which future for wine - Which wine for the future”, at “Wine2Wine”, the business forum by Veronafiere and Vinitaly, staged today and tomorrow in Verona, which has as its focus the theme of Artificial Intelligence.
Taking a snapshot of the sector are a number of “premium” and prominent producers on the Italian wine scene, such as Marina Cvetic, at the helm of Masciarelli Tenute Agricole, a symbolic winery of Abruzzo wine and one of the most important in Italy; Aldo Vajra, at the helm of one of the most significant realities of Barolo, G. D. Vajra (of which he is also winemaker); Alberto Lusini, CEO Angelini Wines & Estates, among the largest groups in Italian wine; and Silvia Franco, daughter of Primo Franco, at the helm of Nino Franco, the family label from Valdobbiadene that has written pages of Italian sparkling wine history.
And while the U.S. market remains the main one for everyone, wine is increasingly global and therefore must look to areas that have not yet been explored, or that have been explored minimally, this is the case with Africa, as Franco and Lusini pointed out. Expanding borders, at a time like this, can give interesting prospects.
One of the crucial “knots” for producers, however, remains that of the decisions to be made, and thus whether to follow new paths in production and in the marketplace, dictated perhaps by climate change and new consumers, or whether to remain strictly faithful to tradition and the standards that have been established over time. A “mix” of the two philosophies is perhaps the solution that many are looking at with greater interest. For Marina Cvetic, the conviction remains to “continue to be in love with the vineyard and to build the vineyard of the future by involving new generations while trying to make sure that the vineyards can last a hundred years”. Alberto Lusini also addressed climate change, pointing out that we have to deal “with a sudden change in conditions”, but he notes a contradiction from a “health” consumption issue perspective because “those of spirits are increasing and those of wine are not. So there is reflection to be done, we need to listen better to the consumer and communicate better before abandoning the product. This also looks at other aspects that have been somewhat neglected, such as direct sales and hospitality, which in Napa Valley and France work better than in Italy. On wine-related trends, we are in a period of moving back toward a traditional style, and on that aspect we feel fortunate”.
Silvia Franco explained that Italy is a challenging market (for Nino Franco, it is worth 30%), because “there is a lot of demand even for sparkling wines that are not Prosecco”, and for the future, from a general perspective, what is important “is to maintain our identity because it has been one of our business successes. Of course, the consumer has to be listened to, to hear what they are asking for, but we have to maintain authenticity”. The wind of change has affected even the most important appellations, Aldo Vajra says that “the trend is to favor a more delicate, ready-to-drink Barolo. We did some research, finding a recipe from 1606 from which we produced a Nebbiolo that looks at freshness. But regarding climate change as well, we are winemakers, our job is to adapt, following nature”.
Among the contributions that emerged were also those via video from entrepreneurs such as Marco Caprai, the architect of the rebirth of Sagrantino di Montefalco, and its territory, with the family business Arnaldo Caprai, and who opens up to the new market innovations that see alcohol free wines on the rise as well, but on one and only one fundamental condition: that of “making products of excellence”. And then Antonio Rallo, at the helm of Donnafugata, one of Sicily’s most important oenological entities, as well as president of Doc Sicilia, who spoke of a market situation that “has changed”, but with supply and demand likely to find balance in 2025. Elena Fucci, one of Basilicata’s leading young wine entrepreneurs with the winery that bears her name, explains that wine must relaunch on “concreteness” rather than looking to social networks and a certain type of communication that has been done in recent years. Because, in the end, planning for the future means keeping up with the times and knowing how to listen, without forgetting those foundations that gave birth to a worldwide success story like that of Italian wine.
“We wanted to give companies a voice because Vinitaly is an integral part of the promotion of this fundamental sector of our trade balance”, said Veronafiere’s managing director, Adolfo Rebughini. “In this perspective, the “One Veronafiere” business plan has incorporated many strategic indications coming precisely from our exhibiting companies starting with the recent debut of Vinitaly USA in Chicago. With the next two stops, in Almaty, Kazakhstan - this year's new entry - and Vinitaly Wine Vision by Open Balcan in Belgrade, we are beginning the journey towards Vinitaly 2025 (Verona, April 6-9, with the prologue of “OperaWine” with the 131 wineries selected by “Wine Spectator” in partnership with Veronafiere-Vinitaly, on April 5, ed.), which will also have new features in terms of product segmentation. In fact, we are closing an agreement regarding raw wines, so natural, organic and biodynamic wines. In fact, we are closing a deal regarding raw wines, so natural, organic and biodynamic wines. Following the market data, mixology is confirmed, a trend that is beginning to have an effect on both consumption and turnover curves, while we are making evaluations on alcohol-free wines. In addition, 2025 will mark the standalone debut of the Oil show, which will debut as Sol2Expo, March 2-4”.