ProWein “Business Report” 2025: rising costs worry, sparkling wines and whites drive sales

Inflation, healthism, economic crises, alternative beverages and wars, both military and commercial. The global wine industry is in a complex phase, and the sector needs immediate answers to overcome the moment: declining consumption, for one reason or another, is a reality. The latest “Business Report” by ProWein, the international trade fair in Dusseldorf (March 16-18, 2025, in Germany, investigated the issue with the report “The Future of Wine”, returning a useful global picture for wine insiders around the world: through the University of Geisenheim, 1,300 industry professionals including exporters, importers, producers, wine-specialized merchants and operators in the restaurant and hospitality sectors were interviewed, and representing more than 30 countries and their important wine regions in Europe and beyond.
The factor they believe will impact wine-related business the most in the coming years will be rising production costs, the most pressing challenge for 65% of respondents. Although the percentage has dropped (last year it was 73%, ed.), this is the element that worries industry experts the most, especially producers in Germany, the United States, South America and Spain, and, likewise, retailers in Great Britain. But connected to this, affecting the wine trade globally, there is also the issue of declining customer purchasing power and the global economic slowdown: issues deemed decisive for 59% and 56% of insiders, respectively. For 49%, however, consumption is falling due to increasing healthiness, with 46% also pointing to a shift to alternative drinks as a diriment factor-a point, the latter, felt particularly in North America and among producers in Austria, Portugal and Germany. Also of concern is the tightening of alcohol policies, which are increasingly stringent for 43% of respondents, especially in Belgium, Britain, South America, Austria and Portugal. To address these challenges, the report says, coordinated industry efforts, better communication and strategic adaptation of products to portfolios are needed. Meanwhile, international trade restrictions remain a constant concern (36&): the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, who has promised duties on EU production, and China’s global trade policies are seen as major risks, especially for French wine producers.
Yet, in 2024, the economic situation of wine worldwide presents a mixed picture: going into more detail, the drop in consumption on 2023, was particularly pronounced in Germany (the continental no. 1 for Italy, with 866.9 million euros, at +4.6 % in the first 9 months of 2024), but less so in Portugal and South America, which together with Spain, France, the Netherlands and Great Britain say they are optimistic looking ahead to 2025, with Italy, Austria, Switzerland, Eastern Europe and Germany itself, on the other hand, predicting a less economically favorable new year.
But in addition to declining sales volumes, most producers have also observed a shift toward lower price ranges, particularly in Portugal, France, South America, Britain, Scandinavia and North America. And, among the changes in consumer behavior, notable, and in some ways confirmed as also recently analyzed by WineNews, is the increase in purchases of sparkling wine, but also of whites, rosés and low or no alcohol content, another of the fastest growing trends in the last time frame. Professionals, interviewed by the report, agree that these trends will persist in the coming years. It is sparkling wines and whites that lead the international markets, with low/no alcohol, on the other hand, showing significant regional variations: while low alcohol is particularly popular in Southern and Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, alcohol-free wines show strong potential in the Netherlands and Germany and Austria. Red wines are generally perceived as less trendy, except in some southern and eastern European markets, where they still remain popular. Natural wines and orange wines, on the other hand, are growing in trend, especially in Britain, Southern Europe and the Netherlands, while fortified wines and proxies (fermented botanical beverages) are still struggling to emerge in consumers’ choices, with flavored wines, on the other hand, gaining appreciation in Eastern Europe.
For the premium sector - which, over the past two decades, has driven the success of the wine industry by enabling growth in value despite stagnating global volumes - experts are, however, increasingly questioning the sustainability of this segment: while half of producers and retailers believe that this type of wine is resilient to economic downturns, another 50% recognize that current prices for super-premium wines have reached unsustainable levels, thus limiting their growth potential. The research proponents’ advice to the wine industry in this regard is to develop innovative strategies to attract younger people, the generation charged with taking the place of current premium wine consumers. Most industry experts also agree that adapting marketing and communication strategies will be key to engaging new types of consumers.
“The wine industry is at a crucial crossroads”, says Simone Loose, director of the Institute for Wine & Beverage Business at the University of Geisenheim, editor of the report and today’s protagonist of the online “Business Talk” featuring Italian producer Piero Mastroberardino, and Maren Lahm, Henkell Freixenet Group’s chief marketing officer for Germany, “although the worst effects of rising costs for producers seem to have been overcome in most countries, wine producers and retailers now face the challenge of adapting to rapidly changing consumer preferences. Developing new products and finding innovative communication strategies will be essential to ensure that wine remains competitive with other beverages”, he continues, “and for the industry to create value, it is critical to continue to communicate the benefits of premium products to both today’s consumers and those of the next generation”.