Italian wine looks forward to 2024, after a positive start of the year, especially abroad

It is decidedly positive, for 2024, the sentiment of the majority of Italian wine companies, which, after the first quarter of the year, see, in most cases, an increase in turnover over the same period 2023, thanks mainly to a growth that, in many cases, is also sustained by exports, against an Italian market in which it is more the turnovers that decrease by a few percentage points, on those that grow. A general picture with which the sector is approaching Vinitaly 2024, now just around the corner, staged in Verona April 14-17 (with the Wine Spectator/Veronafiere-signed “Opera Wine” preview on April 13, still in Verona, and the “Wine Ministerial Meeting” on April 12, in Franciacorta), emerges from the WineNews survey on the economy in the 2024 quarter, with the view of 18 top Italian wine realities which put together an aggregate turnover of more than 2 billion euros (representing more than 14% of the entire turnover, at production, of the sector), with a varied sample, made up of small companies of great blazon, large structured groups with wineries and brands of great prestige, and cooperatives that, for some time, have focused on quality and on building important and well-positioned brands on the market.
In detail, a good 45% of companies report an increase in turnover over the first quarter of 2023, in most cases with increases ranging from 2% to 10%, but there are also peaks of +15% and +27%, to be framed, however, in a context in which, someone points out, the Easter period should be considered, which, in 2024, coincided with the end of the quarter, while in 2023 it was more moved forward to April. In any case, there are also 33% of companies that report turnovers in line with last year, and 22% that instead indicate a decrease, albeit contained within a range of -1% to -4%. The trend in the Italian market is different, with 45% of the sample indicating a drop in turnover, generally between -3% and -8%, although not someone reports a drop of as much as -15%, while it is while 27% are both those who say that Italy turnover is the same as in the first quarter of 2023, and those who report growth, between 1% and 5%, with a sporadic peak of +13%.
Significantly better, however, is the foreign front: more than 61% of the sample declares sales increasing in value, mostly between +5% and +15%, but there are also those who declare increases around 25%. Still, 16% report stability on the first three months 2023, while 23% report declines in exports, by value, contained between -1.5 % and -7%. In any case, although the world’s economies have still slowed, inflation continues to rise (albeit at a slower pace over the past few months) and the many ongoing wars, around the world, amid general and widespread uncertainty, there is a desire to look forward to the continuation of 2024 with optimism and confidence, so much so that 72% of businesses declare a positive sentiment, compared to 12% who do not expect that they expect 2024 to be similar or identical to 2023, and to 16% who, instead, put a worsening in the situation.
Without giving in to excessive euphoria, therefore, a picture emerges, however, of an Italian wine sector that, at least with its more established, structured companies with an established image, is looking to the future again with the ambition to return to growth, overcoming the impasse and worries that characterized a difficult 2023, but, however, not as dramatic as it seemed toward the middle of the year, with exports closing substantially at 2022 levels from recod, at 7.7 billion euros (-0.8%), according to Istat data, and an Italian large-scale distribution that lost something in volume (-3.3%) while growing in value (+2.5%), according to Circana.