Iwsr: decline in wine & spirits consumption may be cyclical, not structural

The worldwide decline in wine and spirits consumption is there for all to see. And while many think that it is a structural decline, linked, on the one hand, to a generational change that sees the “new” generations entering the market not replacing the “old” ones leaving it in terms of volumes consumed, and, on the other hand, to a growing healthism that leads to fewer glasses and goblets, according to others, on the other hand, the slowdown is mainly conjunctural and related to economic difficulties, with inflation hitting a bit all over the world, and the increase in salaries not keeping up, to a greater or lesser degree depending on areas and countries. At least, that’s what the latest Bevtrac report from Iwsr - International Wine & Spirits Research claims, which, having already done so in March 2023 surveyed more than 2,000 consumers in 15 leading wine & spirits markets, such as the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Mexico, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Uk, China, India, Taiwan, Japan and South Africa.
Well, in a nutshell, if in the first half of the year, beer consumption declined slightly, in still wines a -4%, and growing, but by +1%, were the other spirits and ready-to-drinks, the main reason given for this change is related to lower economic availability and greater “prudence” in spending, especially for the younger generation, which is more under pressure due to factors such as rising interest rates, indebtedness, food inflation, tax increases and rising energy costs. But compared to the past few months, reports Iwsr, many are reporting greater economic security than in early 2023, and while the consumption picture is still in the negative for now, however, says Anastasia Timofeeva, Senior Consumer Insights Manager Iwsr, “consumers are reporting high security on the job front, so sentiment for the future remains positive. This suggests that the ongoing changes are not structural and that a rebound is likely in the coming months. The key will be whether real salaries are able to grow sustainably in the next two quarters in Europe and North America, particularly for young “Lda”, or those who, in different countries, enter the bonding age to buy alcohol”.
Predictions that, like all, are based on assumptions that will then need to be tested. One thing, however, is certain, at least in the short term: the growth in consumption of beers, wines and soft drinks. In 2023, volume growth is estimated at +5%, worth more than €13 billion, and the no/low alcohol category is expected to grow by 6% per year, by volume, between now and 2027 (dragged mainly by soft drinks, at +7%, while low alcohol drinks are estimated at +3% per year). With a growing number of consumers, especially among young people, in all areas of the world, to the point that half of those who drank a non-alcoholic beer or non-alcoholic wine, in 2023, did so for the first time.