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Allegrini 2018
PREVIEWS

Iwsr: sparkling wines boom in 2018, but wine will continue to grow at least until 2022

At Vinexpo, previews on the trends and numbers of the wine trade of the future: still wines slow down, but not premiumisation
IWSR, SPIRITS, TREND, Vinexpo, WINE, WORLD, News
Wine in 2022

The economic dynamics and political tensions experienced by giants such as Russia and China influence the global wine & spirits market, which in 2018, as reported by the latest study by Iwsr - International Wine & Spirits Research, “Trends in the wine & spirits market: 2013-2022”, anticipated at Vinexpo in Bordeaux. The category with the highest growth in terms of sales in the world, is that of Whiskey, whose sales, led mainly by the U.S., have risen by 10.8 million cases (9-liter), but also do well Other Wines, that is wines, not from grapes, typical of Japan and other Asian countries (+5.55 million cases) and, above all, sparkling wines: +4.39 million cases (+2%). “The growth of bubbles - says to WineNews the custom analytics director of the Iwsr, Thorsten Hartmann - is excellent news for the Italy of wine, with shipments of Prosecco that, limited to the production potential, will export more and more volumes on the markets”. Very bad, regarding spirits, the vodka, crushed by the difficulties of the ruble and Russia, the first consumer, which leaves 14 million cases on the field.
Still wines showed a negative trend (-4.73 million cases shipped in 2018 compared to 2017), mainly due to the sudden but sharp slowdown in China, with a positive element, however, that of premiumization, “which rewards countries that produce high-quality wines such as Italy,” adds Hartmann. Overall, the volumes of the categories with the lowest added value, “Low Price” and “Value”, collapsed, while “Standard” and, above all, “Premium” grew. In terms of value, on the other hand, growth is even more significant, with the “Standard” category, which in 2018 generated $800 million in turnover, and the “Premium” category, which grew by $1.4 billion. The growth of sparkling wines was more constant, both in terms of volume and value, but also in this case “Standard” (+300 million dollars) and “Premium” (+250 million dollars) are the driving forces.
For the future, the forecasts of the Iwsr speak of a continuous growth between now and 2022: at the end of this year, sales of still wines will reach 312.88 million cases, and those of sparkling wines 36.66 million cases, while in 2022, the world will consume 338 million cases of still wine and 40.1 million cases of sparkling wine, with a growth, albeit slow, in the shares of the “Standard” and “Premium” sectors, which in 2019 will be worth, respectively, 32% and 11.3%, while in 2022 will reach 32.5% and 12.1%. Overall, sparkling wines will grow by 6% in volume and 11% in value between 2018 and 2022, while still wines will grow by 1.7% in volume and 5.4% in value. Among the trends that will influence the future of wine & spirits consumption, identified by ISWR, is the impact of Generation Z, namely those born from 1995 on, showing interesting peculiarities. In fact, they reduce consumption opportunities, leave home a little, are very attentive to the quality/price ratio, are often a teetotalers, all too aware of the negative effects of alcohol on health, and drinking a glass of wine is more a moment to share a picture on social networks rather than for passion or simply to enjoy the palate. A glass of wine, as well as a dish, a cocktail, a restaurant, must be shared on Instagram. Health consciousness is perhaps the most evident trend, with markets such as Germany, which in 2018 consumed 2.61 million cases of non-alcoholic wine, while in the U.S. wines with low alcohol content reached a turnover of 2.45 million cases, and those of wine without alcohol 298,000, but something is moving, in an interesting way, even in Australia, Spain and Great Britain.
And then, there is the impact of the legalization of the use of cannabis, already evident in some U.S. States and Canada: it has a strong appeal among young people but not only, it is well “combined” with new rhythms of life, where you live a lot at home, perhaps with TV on demand, but becomes increasingly used in the creation of new drinks, which opens a whole new front, even for the world of wine. Certainly, large groups, like Constellation Brands, show a huge interest in the sector, with an investment of as much as 4 billion dollars to acquire Canopy Growth.

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