The challenges the secondary market of fine wines has experienced during the first 9 months of 2023 as Liv-ex data has shown, and that WineNews analyzed recently (here), are still far from over, but we have been seeing some positive signs, such as the the Liv-ex 100 limited the decline in September to -0.1%. The Liv-ex 1000, the index that measures the performance of investment wines from all over the world, however, is still navigating in troubled waters. Since the beginning of 2023, it has lost 10.4%, and, in the last part, it registered a further -1% drop.
The Liv-ex analysis, included in “The fine wine market in Q3 2023” report has revealed several other interesting aspects related to the fine wine market performance. For instance, in the third quarter of 2023, the largest increases in value on the Liv-ex 1000 - according to average prices registered on the index – were Château Coutet 2010 (+26.1%), Châteauneuf-du-Pape Vieilles Vignes Domaine de la Janasse 2016 (+25%) and Fontodi’s Flaccianello delle Pieve 2017 (+24.2%), just ahead of Bartolo Mascarello’s 2016 Barolo (+24%). Those wines preceded a trio of 2013s from Bordeaux: Château Climens 2013 (+23, 9%), Château Rieussec 2013 (+21.7%) and Château La Conseillante 2013 (+20.3%). Next, there are Barolo Falletto Vigna Le Rocche Riserva 2000 by Bruno Giacosa (+19.4%) and Barolo Monfortino Riserva 2004 by Giacomo Conterno (+18.8%).
Regarding market shares, Bordeaux has maintained its leading position, and even though it moved down from 41.6% in the second quarter to 38.3%, it was still higher than the 2022 average (35.1%), considering that the En Primeur campaign has left more than a few doubts among wine merchants and investors, while demand for Bordeaux wines continues to be fueled by European and American buyers. Burgundy and the United States also marked a drop in their shares over the quarter, while all other regions, including Champagne (15.2%), Rhône (3%), Tuscany (8.8%) and Piedmont (3.6%), registered increases in their trade shares in the third quarter of 2023.
The rebound in Champagne wines is noteworthy, because since the index has lost 16% since October 2022, many have seized the opportunity to purchase large bottles at relatively low prices, stimulating a market that is still very lively for Champagne, especially in summer and end-of-year holidays, when peak consumption is reached. As a matter of fact, Dom Pérignon 2013 has maintained its position as the most traded wine, in volume and value, from the beginning of the year through the third quarter, at the currently standing market price of 1.700 Sterling pounds per case. In second place, one of the most traded labels in this period in value was Louis Roederer's Cristal 2015 (average price 2.136 Sterling pounds per case), followed by Tenuta San Guido's Sassicaia 2019 (2.639 Sterling pounds per case).
In terms of volumes, instead, behind the usual Dom Pérignon 2013, one of the most traded wines in the period was Saffredi 2020 by Fattoria Le Pupille, ahead of Taittinger’s Comtes de Champagne Blanc de Blancs 2012. In position number 5, once again, Sassicaia 2019 by Tenuta San Guido. The ranking, instead, of the most sought after wines based on the number of offers received during the quarter, places Château Pontet-Canet 2019 and 2016 at the top two positions and then Antinori’s Tignanello 2017 in third place, while the 2020 vintage is at number 6 and Sassicaia 2019 by Tenuta San Guido at number 7. Finally, among the most searched wines on Liv-ex Château Lafite Rothschild takes the first two positions with its 2019 and 2020 vintages, ahead of Dom Pérignon 2013.
The financial context, instead, shows that the gap that divides the performance of the Liv-ex indices from those of the stock markets, is widening. The S&P 500 index, as well as the Dow Jones Industrial, have registered positive performances over the past year, and growth +17.7% and +16.7% on an annual basis, respectively. During the same period, the fine wine market, represented by the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50, registered 12.1% drop, which in the first quarter of 2023 was only 0.9%, meaning that the sell-off took hold only in the second and third quarters. Regarding other financial indices, only one has performed worse than Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 since the beginning of the year, and that is, Hang Seng, the stock index of the Hong Kong stock exchange, which fell 13.1% over the same period.
The geography of investments changed as well, by virtue of more or less favorable exchange rates among the different currencies. Starting from the US dollar, which outperformed the principal currencies such as the British Sterling pound, the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar. This means that whoever invested in US dollars benefited from the possibility of purchasing bottles at more favorable prices than those who trade in British Sterling pounds. And, as a matter of fact, in the third quarter there was an equal percentage of buyers from the United States and the United Kingdom on Liv- ex, at 32.3%, with a significant increase in US purchases compared to the first two quarters of 2023. The Euro registered an inconsistent performance in the third quarter, but Liv-ex Fine Wine 50, both in Euro and in Swiss francs, remained stable throughout the quarter.
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