Allegrini 2018

The global wine market will reach, in 2028, a turnover of 685.99 billion dollars

Growth of 6.4% per year, sparkling wines are still leading, but still wines are worth 84% of value trades
The growth of wine in the world starts from large-scale distribution

The global wine market will reach, in 2028, a turnover of 685.99 billion dollars, at least according to the forecasts of the latest report signed by Grand View Research, according to which the sector will grow at a rate of 6.4% per year starting from 2021. This is the effect, definitely positive, of the growth of wine in the preferences among all age groups and in all markets of the world, at the expense of spirits. An important trend, which also concerns the growth of wine consumption, and in general of low alcoholic beverages, in clubs and parties.
The composition of consumption will not change much, with still wine, white and red, destined to confirm a share of 84% of the market. Affordable costs and availability are two fundamental aspects, especially in order to attract younger consumers. The most sustained growth rate will concern sparkling wines, destined to grow by 6.6% per year between 2021 and 2028. Driving the demand for sparkling wines is the culture of aperitifs and spritzes, which has now spread from Italy to the rest of Europe, supporting the growing popularity of Prosecco.
The privileged channel is by far the off-trade: the shelves of wine shops, supermarkets and hypermarkets represent 89% of wine sales, destined to remain the same in the next years as well. In geographical terms, it is not surprising the primacy of Europe, which is worth 46% of wine consumption in the world, with countries such as Portugal, Italy and France on the podium for average per capita consumption.
Certainly, today wine has been able to reach every market, on a vast scale, of the world, becoming popular everywhere as an “accessible luxury”: the refined taste and the average cost definitely within reach, together with the boom of e-commerce, which has broken down distances, and the help of technology in communication are the main drivers of this phase, but certainly not the only ones. A fundamental role is played by off trade channels, which make available, in every corner of the world, hundreds of labels, making the daily consumption of wine more and more usual, even in markets that are far away from production areas. On supermarkets’ shelves, accessible prices are, it is good to say it again, a fundamental lever to get new consumers.
Big companies, in the meantime, which control important portions of the market, must be good at foreseeing and riding trends and fashions, such as the one for rosé wines, second only to bubbles in terms of growth rates and popularity among young consumers. A trend exploded, as it almost always happens, in the United States, which has rewarded the wines from Provence. At a strategic level, instead, in order to increase geographical coverage, reduce competition and expand market shares, companies are increasingly adopting strategies such as mergers, acquisitions and partnerships. For example, in 2020 Accolade Wines acquired Australia’s Katnook Estate, 160 hectares planted with vines in Coonawarra, from Wingara Wine Group.

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