Wine, export drops (-34% in 2026), but new markets grow among Mercosur (+45%) and India (+165%)

2025 was a year marked by considerable challenges also for Italian wine: exports worldwide closed at -3.6% in value, recording a decline of almost 300 million euros. The most significant figure concerns the United States, where imports fell by 12% in value, due to the tariffs introduced a year ago. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy continues to weigh on performance also in the first two months of 2026 (-34% in value compared to pre-tariff levels in 2024). Despite this, the Italian sector has demonstrated its full resilience, performing better than major global competitors such as France (-4.4%), Spain (-5.1%), Chile (-10.2%), or even the United States itself, whose exports collapsed by 36%: these figures clearly show how tariff barriers, which ultimately represent a form of taxation, harm economies as a whole, as well as workers and consumers. One year after the introduction of U.S. tariffs and against a backdrop of strong geopolitical tensions, this is the scenario analyzed by the Federvini Observatory, developed in collaboration with Nomisma and TradeLab, and presented today at Vinitaly 2026 in Verona during the event “Il vino in un mondo che cambia: il valore del modello italiano oltre i dazi e lo scenario geopolitico” - “Wine in a changing world: the value of the Italian model beyond tariffs and the geopolitical scenario”. The event was introduced by Federvini president Giacomo Ponti, together with the Minister for Enterprises and Made in Italy Adolfo Urso, undersecretary of health Marcello Gemmato, members of the European Parliament Stefano Bonaccini and Francesco Torselli, Italian Trade Agency president Matteo Zoppas, Veronafiere president Federico Bricolo, Nomisma president Paolo De Castro, and Albiera Antinori, president of the Federvini Wine Group.
According to the Observatory, new opportunities are opening up for the sector thanks to the acceleration of EU-promoted free trade agreements, which promise more dynamic and accessible markets. From May 1st, the agreement with Mercosur will provisionally enter into force, opening access to a market of 260 million inhabitants with a combined Gdp of 3,000 billion dollars. In this area, wine imports have grown by 45% over the last 5 years, with Italy already protagonist holding an 8% market share, and where Italian red wines, particularly those from Tuscany and Piedmont, are consolidating a steadily rising reputation. The agreement reached with India is strategic as well, a country of 1.47 billion inhabitants, where Prosecco exports have increased by 165% over the past five years, and where the reduction of federal tariffs, historically set at 150%, to levels of 20-30% promises a true revolution in trade flows. The recent agreement with Australia -  a country with one of the highest Gdps per capita in the world, also completely removes customs duties, opening new opportunities for Italian wines in a market already worth over 540 million euros in total imports, although the chapter on the protection of Geographical Indications doesn’t appear fully satisfactory yet.
Federvini president Giacomo Ponti, one year after the launch of U.S. tariffs, highlighted the factors of instability which continue to affect the European and global economy, starting with the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. A complex and uncertain picture, only partially mitigated by the growth prospects linked to the new free trade agreements signed by the European Union with Mercosur, India, and Australia. “Despite an overall mixed outlook - said Ponti - looking ahead it is essential to emphasize the resilience our companies continue to demonstrate in generating value. We are undoubtedly among the main standard-bearers of made in Italy worldwide, ambassadors of a culture of quality and a distinctive lifestyle. We are entrepreneurs, and we have the responsibility, as well as the duty, to look to the future with optimism, the same spirit with which we have built the value of our brands over time. Along this path, it is crucial to continue finding, at both national and European institutional levels, attentive interlocutors who understand our needs”.
Within this context, in 2025 the large-scale retail (Gdo) market, analyzed by Nomisma for the Federvini Observatory, remained stable at 3 billion euros, despite a slight contraction in volumes (-2.8%). Sparkling wines led the way, growing both in volume (+3.1%) and value (+2.7%), while PGI wines held their ground, maintaining stable values. Quality and ties to territory confirm themselves as drivers of resilience for the sector, in a climate of general consumer caution. At the same time, TradeLab analysis of out-of-home consumption highlights a total market worth 102 billion euros, growing by 1.5% in value, despite a slight decline in visits (-1.1%). Consumption is also becoming increasingly polarized: while wine overall recorded a -6.6% decrease, sparkling wines showed greater resilience (-2.3%), particularly appreciated by Boomer generations and in high-end dining. At the same time, there is a cross-cutting trend toward moderate and aware consumption, driven by evolving dietary regimes that especially influence the choices of young adults.
“The consumption picture portrays a market which is changing not so much in size as in the quality of demand. Values remain largely stable, while selectivity in choices increases. This evolution rewards categories with a stronger identity and reinforces the role of quality and territories as competitive levers  - concluded Albiera Antinori, president of the Federvini Wine Group -  in out-of-home consumption in particular, attention to the experience and to product quality is growing, alongside the search for more conscious consumption. The Italian style of consumption, characterized by moderation and deep roots in national culture, is once again confirmed, as emerged from the study commissioned by Federvini from La Sapienza University of Rome, presented on March 25th in Rome. Italy must continue to work on a strategy aimed at promoting the model of responsible and moderate consumption together with the equally virtuous model represented by Italian cooking, which has been included among Unesco Intangible Cultural Heritage”.