THE WORLD WINE MARKET RESISTS THE CRISIS: ACCORDING TO A VINEXPO/IWSR STUDY 2009 WILL BE AN ATYPICAL YEAR BUT IN 2012 EARNINGS WILL RISE TO 166 BILLION DOLLARS, +14% IN CONSUMPTION, ITALY WILL BE THE LEADING EXPORTER, CHINA AND RUSSIA TOP CONSUMERS

The economic crisis has not been able to hold back the global wine market, whose production, between 2008 and 2012, will continue to grow (+3.83%), reaching over 3 billion cases. Forecasts are also looking good for consumption rates, which, in five years should register a growth of 6% with 313.8 million cases consumed. Earnings will stabilize in 2012 at 166.1 billion dollars. These are the estimates that were made by a Vinexpo/IWSR study (The International Wine & Spirit Record), which also revealed that more than half of world wine production continues to be dominated by three countries: France, Italy, and Spain.

Naturally, 2009 will be an anomalous year, confirmed by the study that covered 28 producing countries and 114 consumer markets, and the repercussions for global consumption of wine and alcohol are a subject of discussion.
But the trends for the 2008-2012 period, demonstrate that the consequences of the current crisis at a global level will be so limited that consumption will still grow by about 6%, with 2.8 billion cases sold. Over ten years (from 2003 to 2012), the increase will have reached a total of over 14%, equivalent to 347.3 million cases (equal to the annual production of the U.S., which is the fourth largest producer in the world).
In 2007, Italy became the top consumer of wine (299 million cases), beating the out the historic leaders, France. By 2012 it will lose its position to the U.S., which will reach a consumption level of 313.8 million cases. Within the top ten consumer countries, Russia now enters high on the list (eighth place with 69.8 million cases), and China (ninth place with 63.6 million cases). These two countries will absorb more than 58% of world growth by 2009. By 2012 Russia and China will consume more wine than Spain.

As for per capita consumption, only six countries (France, Portugal, Austria, Argentina, and Spain), have registered a decrease between 2003 and 2007 while the other 108 countries that were included in the Vinexpo/IWSR study registered a regular increase. The most promising countries, like the U.S., Britain, and China, are still very far from the so-called mature markets like France.

For overall earnings, this will be equivalent to an increase of 8.9% between 2008 and 2012, stabilising at 166.1 billion dollars, with an average forecast of a +1.8% increase per year, versus a +2.46% increase between 2003 and 2008. The study has revealed, therefore, that earnings from wine sales continue to increase more rapidly in respect to consumption volumes for this period (+1.8% per year versus 1.2%). With 21.8 billion dollars spent on wine acquisitions in 2007, Americans are the leading buyers. Growth in earnings on the U.S. market will stabilize around 13.8% between 2008 and 2012, reaching 25.5 billion dollars. Since 2005 the British have spent more than the French in wine acquisitions. As for the Russians, who have almost doubled wine acquisitions (+84.9%) between 2003 and 2007, they should reach a total spending of 6.45 billion dollars by 2012.

The Vinexpo/IWSR study demonstrated how one bottle out of four that are consumed worldwide is imported. The top market worldwide for wine imports is Great Britain. But countries like Russia are catching up, taking fourth place among the top ten wine importing countries worldwide. As for wine exporting countries, the largest volume is shipped from Italy (170 million cases) while, France remains the leader in value (9 billion dollars in 2007, up 26% from 2003).




Vinexpo/IWSR Study on Italy

The Italian wine market has definitely made its way into the top ranks. While in 2008 Italy was the top producing country in the world, in 2007, the country became the top world market of still wine consumption with 299 million 9 liter cases consumed, that is, the equivalent of 3.5 billion. Italy’s exports increased by 40.7% in volume between 2003 and 2007 and by 45.2% in value.

Between 2003 and 2007, wine consumption in Italy increased by only 1.23% and actually fell in 2008 by 0.3%. According to the Vinexpo/IWSR forecasts, consumption should increase by 0.56% between 2008 and 2012, reaching 311.5 million cases (3.7 billion bottles). As for the ten-year dynamics (2003-2012), consumption of red wine (50% of total consumption of Italians in 2007) should increase by over 3 million cases (37.1 million bottles).

For the same period, the consumption of sparkling wines should increase by 334,000 cases (4 million bottles), reaching 11.6 million cases by 2012.

There was a noteworthy increase in the consumption of rosé wines between 2003 and 2007 (+20.5%), which represents, however, only 1.3% of total consumption in Italy.
Italy holds only fifth place for earnings from still wine sales, while it holds first place for volume. This sum reached over 9 billion dollars in 2007, with a progression of 2.4% in respect to 2003 and should continue to grow by 1.15% between 2008 and 2012.

And, finally, certain difficulties have also emerged from the study with wines sold for more than 5 dollars (3.75 euros) and those sold for more than 10 dollars (7.5 euros) per bottle. Only the segment of wines that cost less than 5 dollars (3.75 euros) per bottle has had a significant increase in this period (+1.59%) and should continue to increase between 2008 and 2012 by 0.36%.