Wine, 2026 still complex, but young people and the premium segment give hope

What are the scenarios for the world of wine in 2026? Forecasts certainly point to another challenging year, and this is nothing new. However, on the horizon, there are also opportunities for growth, driven mainly by two factors: emerging markets and engagement with younger consumers. New generations, until now considered a problematic issue in their relationship with wine, are once again emerging as the most interesting prospect and a source of hope for the sector. This is evident from an Iwsr research, which reiterates that the wine industry continues to face long-term structural challenges, from economic and regulatory pressures to the acceleration of moderation in consumption. Yet, the glass should not be seen as “completely empty”: there is clear resilience in premium price segments and growing enthusiasm among younger age groups. At the same time, interest continues to rise in no- and low-alcohol wines, sustainability-oriented offerings, and sparkling wines, including Prosecco. These are the most promising trends. Young people, explains Iwsr, are gaining a larger share of the regular wine consumer base. In Germany and the United Kingdom, within the legal drinking age - Lda group up to 34 years old, they now account for 22% of wine consumers; the figure is 23% in the United States and 27% in Sweden. This growth spans several markets and is driven by curiosity, experimentation, and openness to new experiences.
The ongoing effects of alcohol regulation, customs duties, and residual inflation continue to put pressure on wine prices and trade flows, leading to cautious consumer spending and uneven demand for premium wines across global markets. Sentiment, notes Iwsr, varies considerably from one market to another: while consumers in France remained cautious at the time of the survey (autumn 2025), those in the United States and the United Kingdom showed greater positivity in spending behavior and financial outlooks. Australia, India, and Brazil have demonstrated resilience, while economic uncertainty among upper-middle-class Chinese wine consumers has increased significantly over the past 12 months.
Another key factor for the present and future is moderation, driven by health-conscious trends: according to Iwsr consumer research, 40% of those who are drinking less wine across the 14 main markets say they are doing so as part of a broader reduction in alcohol consumption; 28% mention reduced spending on wine, and 25% say they are taking care of their personal well-being. However, this trend is not universal: consumers in France, Canada, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Germany report a significant decline in wine consumption, while levels are instead increasing in China, India, and Brazil. “Wine consumers in mature markets say they are drinking less wine than the previous year, while consumers in some emerging markets tend to drink more”, affirmed Dan Mettyear, Head of Research - Emea (Europe, Middle East, and Africa), adding that “these highly populated markets continue to offer opportunities”.
Another significant development is that, despite overall moderation, higher price tiers are proving more resilient. While the low, economy, standard, and premium price segments of still wine recorded global volume declines (Cagr) of between -3% and -5% between 2019 and 2024, the super-premium and prestige segments saw Cagr growth of +1% and +2% respectively.
A further positive aspect for the wine world is that the growing influence of young regular consumers is opening up new opportunities. These wine lovers offset their relative lack of wine knowledge with high engagement. In the United Kingdom, 66% of regular wine consumers aged between 18 and 34 are classified as “highly engaged”, meaning they show strong interest in the product, say wine is important to their lifestyle, and spend time choosing a bottle. According to Iwsr market research, this figure is significantly higher than in other age groups, with similarly high levels also recorded in Italy (49%) and the United States (44%).
In terms of purchase drivers, wine consumers overall continue to be more influenced by brand awareness and grape variety, while younger consumers tend to rely more on recommendations and food-pairing potential. “These younger age groups are more confident, more engaged, and more willing to experiment, and they are prepared to spend more per occasion than the average consumer - adds Mettyear - their openness to a wider range of styles and formats, and their use of online channels, create opportunities for brands to position themselves in premium segments and innovate within the category”.
Among the emerging growth areas are no- and low-alcohol wines, low sugar/calorie wines, sparkling wines, and products with strong sustainability credentials, as well as the ready-to-drink category, which represents both a “threat” and an opportunity (for mixology, ed) for the wine sector. “Wine brands are focusing on developing new products, particularly lighter wines, as consumers become increasingly calorie- and sugar-conscious, and health-minded drinkers take alcohol content, sweetness level, and overall calorie intake into account in their purchasing decisions”, points out Mettyear. According to Iwsr data, volumes of non-alcoholic wine more than doubled in the United Kingdom and the United States between 2019 and 2024, with significant increases also seen in Germany, Canada, and Australia. Sparkling wines are also showing strong momentum: globally, volumes grew at a Cagr of +2% between 2019 and 2024, driven by Prosecco (+5%) but also by non-alcoholic sparkling wines (+12%), compared with a -4% Cagr decline recorded by still wine over the same period. “Sparkling wine consumption - concludes Mettyear - is becoming more informal across all markets, shifting from celebrations to more everyday occasions, partly thanks to the spritz trend. Younger consumers, with lower alcohol consumption and a greater willingness to experiment, are driving this change by trying flavored sparkling wines and other styles”.