First quarter 2025 difficult for wine in the U.S.: -9.9% in volume and -10.5% in sales

A 2025 of suspense is involving the wine world as it awaits the evolution of events, facing a scenario that sees U.S. duties on EU products frozen, as of today, at 10%, until July 9, waiting for the evolutions of diplomatic negotiations (barring twists and turns that cannot be ruled out a priori) and with wine shipments resumed, at least in part, after the halt due to the threat of 200% tariffs. Economic concerns compounded by those related to social developments with wine no longer seeming to be central, as it once was, to the preferences of many consumers. A state of apparent calm, then, while waiting for clearer scenarios even if, from the first analyses of the current year, difficulties emerge and a slowdown in purchases that gives pause for thought. Particularly in the United States, the first trading partner for Italian and French wine, where the latest SipSource data, the tool of the Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America that monitors how much comes out of importers’ warehouses and actually ends up on sale, reveal that both wine and spirits faced a difficult first quarter 2025, with an across-the-board decline in volume and revenue. In fact, according to late March data from SipSource analysts, spirits volume fell -6.3% and revenues dropped -5.1% in Q1 2025. Figures on a 12-month rolling basis at the end of the first quarter were -3.8% for volume and -3.9% for revenues. Wine also suffered with volume down -9.9% and revenue at -10.5% in the first quarter. According to SipSource analysts, previously encouraging trends for low-priced table wines have reversed, while premium wines above $50 are experiencing growth in volume, but also continued weakness in revenue, with suppliers clearing inventory backlogs, SipSource explains.
The latest SipSource data also show an important reversal in premiumization trends. After years in which revenue growth outpaced volume growth, volume trends have outpaced revenue trends for wine in recent months, while spirits revenue has recently rebounded above volume growth.
Looking ahead, the SipSource Spirits Forecast expects the 12-month volume of Core Spirits to stabilize in negative territory, closing the second quarter at -3.83%. The alertness, for what is the world's top wine market, remains high, even among the U.S. trade, which, in the meantime, seems to have filled its warehouses with European and Italian products in particular, as evidenced by the +19.6% in value and +4.5% in volume of Italian wine exports to the U.S. in January 2025 over the same figure for 2024 (Istat data analyzed by WineNews).