ProWein Business Report 2018: The future of the wine is in China. The USA resists

China is the future destination for wine exports, followed by Japan, Hong Kong, Scandinavian countries, the USA and Canada, according to the protagonists of the international wine industry (2.400 producers, exporters, importers, retailers, convinced, in 82% of cases, that the wine trade will continue to grow), as emerges from the ProWein Business Report 2018 signed by the Institute of Wine and Beverage Business Research of Geisenheim University, and presented in Shanghai on the eve of the Chinese stage of the wine fair in Düsseldorf, from tomorrow to November 15, with dozens of Italian brands protagonists of masterclasses and tastings guided by the association of German sommeliers, the De.Sa., led by Sofia Biancolin.
The main factor driving China up from the position no. 9 of 2017 to the first of tomorrow will be the growing demand for imports, with significant increases in both volume and value, especially from Australia, France, and Chile. It is also worth to mention the growth of Japan (from the position no. 6 to no. 2), Canada and Australia, which are part of the "G7" of the wine industry, while the USA and Scandinavia remain at the same level as in the past.
The 2017 Report showed that Russia, China, and Brazil as the most attractive countries for the wine industry, an expectation that was partially fulfilled, but that is always exposed to political and economic instability (especially in Russia and Brazil), from now until 2021 the growth estimations are expected mainly in China, South Korea, and Poland, followed by Russia, Hong Kong, Japan and Australia, with Canada, and the USA, closing the ranking.
There are different dynamics, from economic growth to consumption and industry trends. For this reason, if on the one hand, Asia shows the greatest potential, on the other hand, Great Britain, which will leave the European market in March 2019, is by far the recommended industry, even compared to France and Italy, which are not the main target for those who export and sell wine. Regarding the potential, the perception of the risk that each country has with it, is also interesting: China, Russia, Brazil, Great Britain, and Italy are in fact considered the most unstable, for mainly economic and political reasons, such as Chinese centralism, the fragility of Brazilian democracy, Brexit, the Russian economy, the threat of the Italian sovereign government to the stability of Europe.
Which of the emerging industries are ready to grow over the next 5 years? We have to consider Singapore, the Czech Republic, and Taiwan as the countries that are quite easy to negotiate, at least in bureaucratic and economic terms. However, there are also the Arab Emirates, which are increasingly interested in top food and wine, moreover, we also expect a lot from the economies that are now running, such as Vietnam, India, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia, despite the cultural differences that certainly do not facilitate the world of wine. For Italian companies, Singapore, Taiwan, and the Czech Republic are on the podium, just like French and Spanish. It is essential to know where producers and exporters would like to go in the next few years and also which wines they want to sell to the retailers around the world. First of all, 49% of them want to expand their offer to different territories and denominations, especially Portugal, South Africa, Argentina, USA, Australia, Spain, Austria, New Zealand, Chile, Germany, Greece, Slovenia. France and Italy are not in the top positions, an aspect that immediately emerges but which has a precise reason since the presence of labels from the two wine world’s leaders is already very rich. By dividing the market in large areas, and highlighting the importance of geographical proximity, Scandinavia focuses mainly on Spain, South Africa and Germany, Central Europe on Portugal, South Africa and Slovenia, Germany on Portugal, Argentina and South Africa, Eastern Europe on New Zealand, Germany and Australia, Southern Europe on South Africa, Australia and the USA and North America on Spain, Chile and New Zealand.
E-commerce deserves a special chapter since it has always had a complicated connection with wine. 75% of producers sell their wine online, but the percentage of sales volumes barely reaches 5%. The retail side is different, with 40% of retailers, also present on the web, for a 28% sales percentage. At the same time, only 20% of producers rely on platforms specializing in online sales, such as Amazon, or Tannico. It is hard to predict the future, certainly, the number of e-shops will grow, but for the producers, it does not seem to be a priority, especially, concerning the investments that are unlikely to be paid off. To sum up the current situation and the future situation, the expectations of the productive world show important differences: the most optimistic are the small producers, while the big ones do not expect a spectacular growth from now to next year, however, the cooperatives show, a worrying pessimism. As far as the producers of all over the world, the Italians are the most optimistic.