The wine market is slowing down in 2025. Uiv: “Extra-EU exports down almost 9% in the first quarter”

We had been aware for some time that 2025 could turn into a difficult year for the wine world due to duties, uncertainties, declining purchasing power, choices. Now, even the numbers seem to outline a not at all encouraging scenario. And, this is not taking into account positive data, which of course needs to be analyzed, such as in February 2025 when Italian wine exports were positive even though there was a clear slowdown in January, as per WineNews analysis. The Observatory of the Unione Italiana Vini (Uiv) also highlighted these critical issues in the sector, noting that the “global market for Italian wine” was “in sharp decline in the first quarter of the year. The negative spiral has long been evident in the outlook for real consumption, which is now reflected in export data that so far has been boosted by the US rush to pre-duty stocks”. UIV commented, “exports to non-EU countries closed the first quarter in a decline, at almost-9% (-0.1% value), in spite of +4% in the USA (which, however, closed March in decline). Had it not been for the performance of the United States, the decline in the markets, which according to some people should act as a counterbalance to the commercial closures overseas, would be close to -17%”.
According to the president of the Unione Italiana Vini (Uiv), Lamberto Frescobaldi, “over the last six months we have witnessed an apparent paradox. That is, Italian shipments to the United States seemed to be stable or even growing in some sectors, but real consumption data tell a different, much more troubling story. The pre-duty rush has misled the markets, as actually the situation is quite different. Final consumption is falling or at best, is stagnant. It is, therefore, crucial not to confuse outputs (exports) with real consumption, because real analysis must focus on the behavior of the final consumer, not just on customs data. The risk is a false perception of market solidity that can lead to incorrect decisions along the entire supply chain”. There has been an imbalance between shipments and consumption as Uiv reported, that “has been realigning since March. For the first time, due to the threat of tariffs in the middle of the month, the trend in exports to the American market has reversed (volumes at -3.5%)”. The future, under a tariff regime, is quite complicated. “The super premium range - from 15 euros/liter to the winery - represents only 2% of the volumes and 8% of the values of our wine in the USA”, Paolo Castelletti, General Secretary of the Unione Italiana Vini (Uiv), said, “it would be dangerous to cling to the thesis of irreplaceability by virtue of the high positioning of our products. Made in Italy exports are, in fact, based on a centered quality/price ratio. We need to have a discussion with institutions as soon as possible, to activate a proper defense for the sector”.
Regarding consumption, the Unione Italiana Vini (UIV) Observatory analyses, based on Nielsen data, revealed that mass retail distribution, in the top 3 world markets (USA, Germany and UK), “registered -8% (-5.5% in value) trend decrease in volume: the United States -5.4%, Germany -11.8% and the UK -6.4%. Almost all the main denominations, except for Prosecco, are experiencing difficulties, Pinot Grigio delle Venezie, Chianti, Lambrusco, Piedmont reds, Sicilian whites. Italy, in general, is also in a difficult moment, as mass retail quarter volumes decreased 4%, while even larger decreases are expected in the catering sector”.