Trade war underway: the first aims are Canada, Mexico, and China. Worry in the Eu

He promised that during the campaign, and he didn’t lose time: Donald Trump announced that, in the next days, the first duties towards Canada, Mexico (both 25%), and China (10%), first target-countries of trade war of new Usa President, who threatened the European Union to be the next one on the list, will enter into force. And, if the first effects of this announcement are a drop in world stock exchanges, and of cryptocurrencies, the Eu is already preparing its countermoves, although in the awareness – as the Eu High Representative for Abroad Politics Kaja Kallas said – that, in trade war there are no winners. Eu president Ursula von der Leyen explains that, if American president won’t change his mind, the revenge with “unfair and arbitrary” measures will be stationary. Although many analysts state that Trump announcements are only a weapon to sit at wider negotiation tables, the effects of eventual duties about made in Italy are about to be evaluated. The value of Italian export in the Usa, in 2024, was 66.4 billion euros with mechanics, fashion, and agri-food sectors leading. The Usa are the third market of destination of Italian products after Germany, and France. In the classification of European countries with a trade excess towards the Usa, i.e. those which have a major probability to be hit by Trump duties, Italy is at the third place with 43 billion dollars (at the first place, there is Germany with 80 billion, followed by Ireland). According to Matteo Zoppas (Ice) Agency “made in Italy can take a hit: pay attention to fashion, wine and mechanics”. The estimated loss fluctuates between 4 to 7 billion dollars according to a study by research society Prometeia. While the trade war got, at this point, into the thick of things on the North-American front, and on the Asiatic one, Europe, in the middle, prepares to cope with it with a hard response: “there are no winners in trade war, China laughed. The Eu and the Usa are linked, we need them, and they need us. Duties are not okay for workplaces, and for consumers”, declared the High Representative Eu for the Abroad Politics Kaja Kallas. “Both the Usa and Europe take advantage from the exchange of goods and services – said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the informal Eu summit in Brussels – if duties make all this difficult, the Usa and Europe would be negatively affected. One thing is clear: as a strong economic area, we can manage autonomously our affairs, and reply to duties with duties. This is what we have to do, and will do. But, the forecast, and the aim should be that we proceed in a way based on cooperation”. The most exposed sectors – basing on data by Ministry of Foreign Affairs of 2023 – are Machinery and equipment (12.4 billion); Pharmaceutical products (8 billion); Other means of transportation 6.15 billion (ships, military means, etc.); Motorcars/trailers 5.8 billion, followed by Food products with over 4 billion. At a geographical level, it emerges how over the half of exports depends on only 3 regions: Lombardy (14.3 billion), Emilia-Romagna (10.4 billion), and Tuscany (9.1 billion). Regarding, specifically, food & wine sector, Italian export in the Usa in the first 11 months 2024 is worth 7.8 billion euros (compared to a total of 70 billion euros on international markets). Although our first country of reference for agri-food export remains Germany, the takeoff of food is connected particularly to the specific push of Usa market, which marked a +18.4% compared to the same period of 2023. Matteo Zoppas, president of Ice Agency, dealing with the promotion of Italian businesses abroad, affirmed that, due to duties, “made in Italy can take a hit” with a particular reference to fashion, wine, and mechanics sectors. Supposing American duties of 10% on imports, loss risk goes from 4 billion to over 7 billion of dollars, basing on the numbers of taxed sectors – according to the simulations realized by consultancy and economic research society Prometeia – which would add to the current value of duties on Usa market, equal to almost 2 billion dollars in 2023. Exactly Zoppas, in the last days, would have had a series of meetings about theme duties with Minister for Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani, and with American Embassy. After Mexico and Canada, Italy is the third country from which the Usa import more agri-food products and beverages. Italian food & beverage export to the Usa overcame France in 2023, removing it from the podium of most suppliers. Going into detail, in Italian agri-food exports to the Usa, wine leads, which, in 2023, touched a value of 2.1 billion dollars. Olive oil confirms to be a synonym of Italian quality with 706 million of export, and, in third position, sauces and other food preparations are found with 633 million. The fourth commodity product type, which is the most sold overseas, is pasta (597 million of dollars), the fifth is cheese (468 million), bakery products (445 million) are in the sixth position, water at the seventh (309 million). Eighth position for vegetal preserves (302 million), ninth for spirits (256 million), and tenth for worked meats (240 million). An other characteristic product of made in Italy, coffee, collocated at the eleventh position with 137 million of dollars of exports. Overall, the plan announced by Trump is to make use of duties to finance the Usa financial balance, but in reality, the American themselves would pay off the effects: Usa importers will release on consumers (mainly those with a lower income) the new duties that they will have to pay. Duties will regard mainly cars, electrical appliances, food sector, and building material: fruit and vegetable arriving from Mexico, a country in which also most components of American car sector are produced, will, therefore, increase in price, so that experts foresee that the price of a Ford, or of a General Motors could increase, due to duties, also by 3,000 dollars.