The 2025 scenario under pressure for Italian wine: most remain stable, many suffer (slight) losses

In a difficult 2025 for the wine market, more than half of Italian wineries defended themselves, balancing their financial statements on 2024 (which, it should be remembered, was a record year, at least in terms of exports, with €8.1 billion), while more than 4 out of 10 companies saw a decline in turnover, albeit limited to a few percentage points. Meanwhile, for 2026, which has just begun, despite an uncertain and variable scenario, from tariffs on a key market such as the US to health trends and more, 70% of companies are divided between those who expect stability or a slight recovery and 30% who, on the other hand, expect a further, albeit slight, decline in turnover. To mitigate this decline, the vast majority of companies will maintain stable investments in communication, marketing, and image, while a significant portion, 4 out of 10, will invest even more in sales support. This is the picture that emerges from the WineNews survey on the end of 2025 and the outlook for 2026, with the views of 25 leading Italian wine companies, which together have an aggregate turnover of more than €2.5 billion (representing over 17% of the sector’s total production turnover), with a varied sample consisting of small prestigious companies, large groups with prestigious wineries and brands, and cooperatives that have long focused on quality and the creation of important brands that are well positioned on the market.
Overall, in general terms, 2025 ended on a balanced note for 53% of companies in terms of their balance sheets, but with a decline (varying in magnitude, mainly between -1% and -5%) for the vast majority of the others (with residual, almost unique, positive signs, and in any case of very few percentage points). Although there are some small signs of optimism, or attempts to glimpse them, at the start of 2026, which for 70% of companies will be marked by stability or growth compared to 2025 (with opinions divided exactly in half, 35% each).
Looking in more detail, some differences emerge between the performance of the Italian market and that of global markets. In Italy, 58% of wineries that responded to the survey report stability, while, again, more wineries report a decline (26%) than growth (16%), in both cases with variations of mostly between 1 and 3 percentage points. The situation is more varied in exports, where 42% report stability, 37% a decline (ranging from -3% to -15%), and 21% an increase in exports (but, in these cases, the increase is essentially between +1% and +3%).
In short, 2025 was undoubtedly a complex year, perhaps more so for exports than for Italy, as confirmed by the data available to date, such as Circana’s data on national large-scale distribution, which show a -0.5% decline in value and a -3.1% decline in volume, or Istat's data on exports for the first 11 months of 2025, which show a -3.6% decline in value and a -2% decline in volume compared to 2024.
As mentioned, at the start of 2026, in a scenario marked by wars, tariffs (with a big question mark hanging over the US, after manufacturers and traders had somehow become accustomed to managing the “certainty” of 15%), health issues, climate change, rising costs, and regulatory complications, and therefore a consequent decline in consumption, there are still many uncertainties, but companies are striving to look on the bright side, albeit with realism. In fact, as mentioned, net of 37% of the sample that expects 2026 to be in line with 2025, and 26% that predicts a further decline in turnover (between -3% and -5%), 37% expect a year of growth (expectations are mostly between +2% and +4%, which seems more like a hope for recovery than real growth).
However, despite the difficulties in the market, or perhaps precisely in order not to lose further ground at this stage, few companies are planning cuts in marketing and communications. No one, on the other hand, will be cutting budgets to support their sales networks, with several companies increasingly inclined to invest more resources. On the communications front, 79% plan to maintain the same budget in 2026 as in 2025, while for the remaining percentage, although plans to increase spending are sporadic, others are planning significant reductions, ranging from -5% to 20%. These financial resources will probably be diverted to sales support, whether through their own network of agents or external partners, compared to 2025: while 63% plan to maintain the same budget, 37% will invest more, on average around +5% (with peaks of +10%), precisely to support the purely commercial phase.
The sentiments of the companies (with a turnover of over €2.5 billion) that responded to the WineNews survey clearly show the complexity of this phase for the wine market and the awareness that the near future will certainly not be easy for the Italian wine sector, which, it must be said, is suffering after years of significant growth. While 2025 has been difficult to manage, it should also be remembered that the sector has enjoyed years of consecutive growth, sometimes even double-digit growth, which, as many entrepreneurs point out, could not continue indefinitely, and in any case, not without some slowdown. Considering, moreover, that 2025 came after a record-breaking 2024, especially in exports, which followed a positive 2023 and still benefited from the tail end of post-Covid euphoria.
With a view to the recent past and the near future of the sector, which therefore tells of an Italian wine world that is aware of the undeniable difficulties, but which “bends but does not break.” And which seeks to look to the future, strengthened by its history and the great appeal it enjoys, in any case, in markets and on tables around the world. Finally, among the interesting findings that emerge from the WineNews survey is the attitude towards non-alcoholic and low-alcohol wines: while 26% of the sample is already investing in them or plans to do so, for 74%, at least for now, it is out of the question.