From moderation to new markets, and to occasional consumption: 2025 trends for alcoholic drinks

The new strategies to be implemented to cope with the new trend characterized by consumption moderation, and, the meantime, in developing markets, which, however, are increasing their purchasing volumes of drinks; from the rise of occasional consumption, another phenomenon to be monitored, to the slowing down of premiumization, up to the recovery of on trade channel which deserve ad hoc actions. These are, very briefly, the five key trends modeling the opportunities of alcoholic drinks in 2025, according to the last survey by Iwsr (International Wine & Spirits Research). A scenario described as “weak but rich in opportunities”, that of 2025, and which arrives after a 2024 characterized by persisting inflation, geopolitical tensions, and different levels of trust of consumers. An economic uncertainty which will accompany us also in the next months, but with “promising growth occasions”.
No/Low-Alcohol sector is destined to take major spaces and to reshape consumption standards, and this because moderation is becoming a “mainstream” trend rather than limited to a category of consumers. “Light” drinkers, i.e. with a low frequency and/or intensity of consumption are now the greatest segment in 15 key markets covered by research about consumers by Iwsr’s Bevtrac overcoming “medium” and “heavy” drinkers. Let’s just think about the fact that, in India, 72% of the wealthiest drinkers in 10 great cities declared to abstain for a period, and, in South Africa, Mexico, and Brazil, over half of consumers have similar behaviors. Moreover, consumers choose increasingly more to limit to just only one type of drink in a specific occasion, often reducing the quantity they drink.
In the 10 key markets covered by strategic study No/Low-Alcohol by Iwsr, it is foreseen that No/Low volumes will expand to a Cagr (compound annual growth rate, ed) by +4% between 2024 and 2028 with No-Alcohol leading with a Cagr of +7% in volume. The forecast is that the only category of No-Alcohol will produce an incremental growth of over 4 billion of dollars by 2028.
For the companies, it will be important to enlarge their radius of action to new destinations. As Iwsr explains, developing markets of alcoholic drinks, rather than mature destinations (excluding the Usa), for which, marginal growth is forecasted, or even a contraction, will lead the growth in terms of value in the next five years. The earnings will be largely linked to high population density countries such as India (where bureaucracy is “loosen”, China, and the Usa, followed by Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Vietnam, and Nigeria. A leap whose push arrives by the presence of younger, by the increase in earnings, and by the expansion of medium classes.
The increase of occasional and “informal” consumption is another trend not to be underestimated. Iwsr makes notice that, in the Usa, Prosecco and ready to drink are turning out to be popular during brunches, barbecues, and informal meetings replacing more expensive options such as Champagne. In Italy, the culture of happy hour and post-work socialization fostered the growth of Prosecco, bitters, and cocktails. And, also in China, drinking gains leap following a structural change in bars, together with the drop of consumers, economy continues to fight. Ready to drink products, particularly, continue to thrive as a result of the trend of occasional consumption, and it is foreseen that they will continue to grow mainly in more consolidated markets such as Japan, the Usa, Australia, and Canada.
Prices are an other variable to be considered in this particular historical moment. “High” price range slows down with few exceptions. The competitiveness of premium-plus beer and cider prices (the price range higher than “premium”, ed) is turning out to be an advantage in the current macroeconomic panorama with volumes increasing by +2% in the first half 2024 against a drop of -3% for alcoholic drinks, and premium-plus wine. But, all the key markets signal a drop in sales both in terms of volume and value among low-income consumers, while high-income consumers have major probability to reduce the volume without descending in terms of value. “Status spirits” - products of over 100 dollars per bottle – continue, even in their niche to expand their share covering 5% of total market.
The recovery of “out-of-home” is an other trend that producers don’t have to underestimate together with the dynamics of world digital offering increasingly more occasions. Data about consumers by Iwsr regarding the second half of 2024 shows an increase of on-trade consumption on an annual basis. One drinks more in exiting consumption even if moderation is evident both in on-trade market and in the off-trade one. A particularly strong inclination among Millenials in the Usa with Scottish whiskey, spirits and sparkling wines among the major beneficiaries. Horeca-trade channel is giving recovery signals in key countries such as China, Germany, Italy, Mexico, the Uk, and the Usa giving a breath of optimism. In the meantime, digital platforms are playing a fundamental role in guiding offline sales with increasingly more consumers addressing to the web to guide their purchases in the shop. In the end, according to Iwsr, 63% of online buyers of alcoholic drinks carries out in depth research before purchasing, an increasingly more reclaimed trend by “offline buyers”.