In the US, after nearly half a century, sales of spirits in volumes will be higher than wine

The change in wine and spirits consumption is no doubt profoundly significant at this moment in history. Understanding its dynamics and real trends is not easy, though. Therefore, the numerous analyses, over the past few months, have pointed to a decline in overall consumption linked partially to young people's shift away from alcohol as well as a growing health concern. Now, instead, not only young people themselves, i.e., Gen Z, are starting to consume more again—not overindulging, though—rather, more and more preferring beer, ready-to-drink beverages, and even spirits to wine, as the IWSR reported. Further, in the United States, pending developments regarding tariffs between the US and the EU, which are expected by August 1st (the alcohol sector potentially being saved, according to the latest rumors), some people are predicting that by the end of 2025, for the first time in almost half a century, total alcohol sales, by volume (thanks largely to ready-to-drink beverages), will be higher than wine sales, which will decline even further, as a statement from “The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken's Impact Databank Review & Forecast” confirmed. According to the report, following 3% decline in wine consumption in the US in 2024, there will be a further 4% decline in 2025. However, some wine segments, such as wines priced at and above 15 US Dollars per bottle on the shelf, wine-based RTDs, dealcoholized wines, and so-called "better-for-you" wines (essentially, organic and biodynamic wines plus those at reduced alcohol and calorie content), will continue to grow. The report further emphasized that overall declines are expected through 2030, but at a rate of less than 3% per year. Impact Databank also explained that “the higher-priced segments continue to be supported by Prosecco—particularly La Marca and Mionetto brands—and still wines at 15 US Dollars and up. In the year-to-date period, ending June 15th, on Circana channels, the fastest-growing table wine brands included New Zealand's Kim Crawford and California wines, Meiomi and Decoy by Duckhorn, as well as Josh Cellars, although total table wine volumes have declined nearly 6% year-to-date on the off-premise channel”.Wine-based cocktails are led by the Austin-based Beatbox Beverages, which grew nearly 80% last year, to more than 5.4 million cases Wine-based RTDs , instead, added nearly 2 million cases to the overall market, according to Impact Databank. Dealcoholized brands are expected to reach nearly a total of two million cases by 2025, led by Trinchero's Fre and Opici's Giesen 0%. The fastest-growing low-calorie brand on the market is Avaline—Cameron Diaz and Katherine Power's organic wine—which grew more than 50% last year.
In general , the report underlined, while it cannot be denied that the wine market is currently facing enormous challenges, it's also true that looking at the long term, sales volumes have more than doubled in forty years, and the total value of wine has quadrupled over the last thirty years.