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Allegrini 2018
COVID SCENARIO

Italian wine, export at -4.6% in 2020. Bad, but better than -10.5% worldwide, and France: -18%

The estimates Vinitaly-Nomisma Wine Monitor, today, at Wine2Wine. Damage is contained mainly in the USA and Germany. But it is alarm on prices

The Italy of wine holds up to the impact of the pandemic in 2020, at least on the export front, where it will be declining, but contained. In a shocking picture at Covid, bubbles, on the whole, are worse than still wines, and this has not happened since the economic-financial crisis of 2009. This is confirmed by the estimates of the Vinitaly-Nomisma Wine Monitor, presented today at Wine2Wine by Veronafiere & Vinitaly, according to which, for Italy, which will close its exports in 2020 with -4.6% in value (6.1 billion euros) compared to the previous year, the effects will be lighter overall than the global trend (-10.5%) and even more so on the main player in the sector, France, forced to give up 17.9% of its exports. A comforting picture if we consider the increase in market shares gained by the Italian vineyard; alarming if we consider the asymmetry of general data that hides strong declines in different segments, starting from small companies with a high quality rate. In absolute terms, the contraction in the value of world wine imports estimated (on a customs basis) will be more than 3 billion euros compared to 2019, mainly due to the lack of sales for more than 1.7 billion euros of its market leader, France. The forecast for Italy, on the other hand, stops at -300 million euros, also due to the boom (+15%) in exports in the first two months of the year, which has mitigated liabilities.
“The general data on forecast estimates - underlines the VeronaFiere DG, Giovanni Mantovani - shows how Italy has been able to oppose effective antibodies to the crisis. The quality-price ratio, a more varied diversification of sales channels and the escape of the danger of additional duties in the United States have made it possible to reduce losses abroad, but the flip side of the coin is made up of many small and medium wine companies that, unlike the others, have lost their commercial references - particularly in the on-trade - and are paying a much higher than average. It is this segment, decisive for our made in Italy, that will need to be safeguarded right from the start”.
In detail, in fact, it emerges that they keep, and sometimes increase, the Italian companies most present on the sales channels of the large-scale distribution, often medium-large companies with important numbers. On the other hand, there is a decrease, even more than 50%, of small and medium sized companies oriented towards retail and on-trade channels. And the sparkling wines, (-5.7%) a symbol of out-of-home and partying, are worse than the standstills (-4.5%) for the first time in 11 years (2009). Down the average export price of the entire category by more than 9%, while the stops lose 2%.
“One of the main risks arising from the reduction of imports in the most important outlet markets, combined with the decrease in demand on the domestic market - underlines the head of the Vinitaly-Nomisma Wine Monitor, Denis Pantini, who, at WineNews, estimated an overall drop in turnover of -15% for Italian wine, with losses mainly on the domestic market - is that of a decrease in the sales prices of our wines that would frustrate all the efforts made in recent years for a better price positioning of our products, with knock-on effects on all companies and denominations. A concrete risk, if you think that almost 2 companies interviewed out of 10 in the qualitative survey have declared that to contrast the reduction of purchases and supplies they are thinking about discounts/promotions to attract customers”.
As said, in any case, the Belpaese seems to have contained the damage compared to its competitors. The -4.6% in value for Italian wine, estimated by the Vinitaly Nomisma Observatory, is the result of forecast estimates on the main markets of the world wine trade, in addition to the focus in some of the main buyer countries analyzed (USA, Germany, UK, China, Japan, Russia and Australia). The country will be able to contain losses and significantly increase market shares in its 2 key markets - the United States (-2% in value, at 1.7 billion euros) and Germany (-3%, at 918 billion euros). A result that represents a half victory if one considers that the general drop in US imports (-10.1%, with France at -23%) is 5 times higher than the Italian figure, while for Germany the average change in imports is -7.7%. Significant stop instead in the United Kingdom, increasingly far from European supplies, with producers in Italy and France losing respectively -12.1% and -16.7%, against a positive variation in demand on the “New World” of almost +5%. The contraction of the Chinese market continues (-32% on the Italian product, -29% the total variation) and of the Japanese market, which will turn negative (-15.1%) after the 2019 exploit, as well as Canada (-7.7%). Down also the Australian (-3.8%) and Russian demand, which with an expected value of 279 million euros will mark a drop for the tricolor wine of 7.5%. Finally, the Italian performance is generally less deficit compared to competitors thanks to the resilience of some weighty markets, such as Switzerland (+4.3%) and Sweden (+2.2%) among the very few to present green light.

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