Italian wine, in 2023 the turnover will drop by -16%. And there are 3 million hectoliters in excess

2022 will probably still be a positive year of growth for the balance sheets of companies, at least of the leading ones, of Italian wine. But the scenario for near future, with a horizon of 2023, is decidedly gloomy. Between soaring costs items and falling sales, collapsing profitability, recession anxiety. For Italy of wine, fresh from year of important growth on world markets, despite the difficult and complex period of the pandemic, now the “big cold” ha arrived, and this time for real. And it will be felt throughout 2023. This is stated in the economic survey by the Uiv/Vinitaly Observatory, presented today at the Veronafiere wine2wine, in the supply chain conference that opened the event dedicated to wine. According to the study, the surplus of costs recorded this year by Italian companies – 1.5 billion, 83% more, deriving only from increases in energy prices and dry raw materials, such as caps, glass and paper – will complicate the 2022 financial statements of companies. Starting with the Ebitda, expected to be 10% this year, down from 25% in 2021 and even worse than the 2020, when the profitability indicator found was 17%. But a wet blanket will be in 2023; in a recessive scenario, the Ebitda will go into free fall (4%), with a turnover, at -16%, which in many cases will not be able to cover decreasing costs (-11%) but however relatively high. In monetary terms, the reduction in the Ebitda expected for next year is 900 million euros, thus setting at 530 million euros against the 400 million euros in 2022and 3.4 billion euros in 2021.
Regarding to the market, the Observatory of Unione Italiana Vini (Uiv) and Vinitaly expects a year end with general sales down by 1% in volume (41.4 million hectoliters), for an increasing value, thanks to horeca and direct sales, by 6%, to 14.3 billion. Abroad in terms of value dynamics is much better (+ 10% versus + 1% of the Italian market), while volumes are expected to be stable in Italy and slightly down on international markets, in particular the USA, Germany, but also China and obviously Russia. The data of the value - notes the analysis - must not be misleading: the increase, completely inflationary, of 7% on the average price is not enough to cover the costs, as demonstrated by the requests of the companies to the distribution to increase the price lists an average of 12%.
For the Ceo of Veronafiere, Maurizio Danese, on stage together with the representatives of the reference associations of Italian wine (from Luca Rigotti, coordinator of the wine sector of Alleanza delle Cooperative, to the president of Assoenologi, Riccardo Cotarella, from Cristiano Fini, president of Cia-Agricoltori Italiani, to the councilor Coldiretti Francesco Ferreri, from the vice president of Confagricoltura, Giordano Emo Capodilista, to the president of Federdoc, Giangiacomo Gallarati Scotti Bonaldi, from the president Federvini, Micaela Pallini, to the director Fivi Andrea Pieropan, from the president of the Unione Italiana Vini - Uiv, Lamberto Frescobaldi, to the president of Veronafiere, Federico Bricolo), “Italian wine is not only a flagship product but a healthy sector that contributes significantly to the economic and social development of the Italy. Tackle the dynamics of a sector in its evolutionary phases with seriousness and attention is a service that Vinitaly will want to pursue. On the one hand to put these studies at the service of companies and stakeholders, on the other because it is from the analysis of needs and priorities that the new course of an event that aims to be increasingly pragmatic and in line with the reality of the sector”.
Overall, in a year kept afloat by our local and international horeca as well as by direct sales, 2022 will close worse than it started. In this sense, neither the 10% drop in retail volumes of the first 3 foreign markets (USA, Germany and UK) in the whole of September helps, nor especially all the average values of bulk wine, relating to a new harvest above 50 million hectoliters, down by 15% -20%. The analysis focuses on this point, because the economic difficulties exacerbate the growth crisis of an oenological superpower that produces too much wine, and the unsold also drags down the value of the “healthy” product. “A reduction of 3 million hectoliters – says the analysis - would help to lighten the surplus supply chain, releasing energy on the healthy part and put on the market”. The overproduction generates surpluses both among the common wines and among the Dop-Igp; for this it would be necessary to order the system of certified products: out of a total of 458 Dop-Igp only 90 have a bottled-up rate claimed above 80%, while 270 (60% of the total) denominations are under the 60% bottled