“No-Lo” wines in 2024 are worth 2.4 billion dollars (1.2% of total) in world. But, they will grow

A market that is still a niche, but destined to grow with interesting perspectives also in Italy, and to be seen not only as “antagonist” to traditional wine. To do that, a rapid turn is needed requested by wine world to ease its production, Zero alcol e attese dal mercato” - “Zero alcohol, and waiting from the market”, the focus on scene, today, at Vinitaly 2025, in Verona, with Unione Italiana Vini – Uiv in first line, and the contribution of experts from the productive world to importers, from distribution to horeca, turned the spotlights on the market of “No-Lo” (no and low alcol). A global market that is currently worth 2.4 billion dollars aiming to reach 3.3 billion of dollars in 2028 according to the analysis by Wine Observatory Uiv-Vinitaly basing on Iswr data, presented by Carlo Flamini, responsible of the Observatory. Figures which are still low if considered in an overall optic of product wine, but which can’t be ignored also considering the evolution of production, the choice of consumers, and the investments of entrepreneurs.
For no and low alcohol, a Cagr (compound annual growth rate) in volume of 7% is foreseen in the period from 2024 to 2028 differently from a -0.9% of total wine. And, still, +8.1% in value of “No-Lo”, and +0.3% of the total wine always in the same period. The effect of “No-Lo” wines on total wine passed from 0.6% of 2019 to 1.2% of 2024, and it is foreseen that it will be 1.6% in 2028. Out of 2.4 billion of dollars in value, two thirds (1.6 billion) arrive from sparkling wines (0.8 from still wines), and the forecast is that these will raise to 2.1 billion in 2028 against 1.2 billion of still wines. Cagr 2024/2028 marks +2.1% for traditional sparkling eines, and +6.4% for “No-Lo”, +0.1% for traditional still wines, and +11.3% for “No-Lo”. Looking at “share” in value, in 2024, low alcohol (63%) are more popular than no alcohol (37%), leaded by low alcohol sparkling wines (47%), the favorite category overall in front of no alcohol wines (19%), still no alcohol wines (18%) and still low alcohol wines (16%) even if for these last ones, a higher Cagr in value is foreseen (2024-2028), +14.1%. Regarding consumption in single countries, in 2024, the Usa dominated the share in value with 63%, followed by Germany (10%), which has already an advanced market compared to others, the Uk, and Australia (4%), France and Canada (2%). Flamini highlighted how brand Stella Rosa “produced an exceptional pressure on American market” of no alcohol marking their beginning deeply.
Consumption in Italy is still very marginal, we are obviously at the beginnings with “No-Lo” which are worth 0.1% of the total wine sales for a counter value of 3.3 million dollars which – according to Iwsr estimates – should reach 15 million in the next 4 years with an awaited Cagr of 47.1% (49.5% only for “no alcohol”). In Italy, in 2024, “no alcohol” overcame “low alcohol” by a great deal in the share in value: 87% against 13%.
Regarding “No-Lo” consumption for single beverage, the monitored countries are the Uk, the Usa, Germany, France, Canada, Japan, Spain, and Australia, beer takes 67% of market, strong also of a longer history, while wine is in second position with 16%. “No-Lo” represents 5% of the total for the category of beer, and 2% regarding wine. For consumers, the main barriers to “No-Lo” wine consumption are given by availability (46%), other alcoholic/“No-Lo” drinks (39%), taste/quality (28%), and cost (22%). For the non-consumers of these products, the first reason is the preference of alcoholic drinks (44%), followed by other “No-Lo” wines (30%), and from taste (23%). The first three reasons for the choice of a “No-Lo” product regard preferring a healthy lifestyle (34%), reducing alcohol (31%), and for the effects of alcohol (31%), but there is also a 26% who mention driving. Reduce alcohol, healthy lifestyle, and alcohol effects are the first three reasons in the purchase of a product of “low” type.
But, if at this point, no alcohol wine is reality, worries don’t miss in Italy. “The production of no alcohol wines in Italy continues to accumulate delay – explained secretary general Uiv Paolo Castelletti – if the Ministry of Agriculture doesn’t intervene on fiscal arrangements foreseen by the Ministry of Economy and Finances, businesses will have to wait until 2026 before starting the production. A bridg rule is needed which allows to define the fiscal framework for the production during this transitory phase. It is unthinkable that companies which invested for dealcoholization remain blocked for a law hole in which the right hand of public administration doesn’t know what left hand does”. Among the criticality elements, underlined Uiv, also the law regarding the promiscuity of spaces which foresees the obligation of separation of spaces, and that regarding the possibility to produce no alcohol gasified sparkling wines. “On both the matters, we are having a dialogue with the Ministry – added Castelletti – they should be solved with an amendment to the decree in rapid times. Currently, we pay the reckoning to have much higher productive costs compared to Spanish, French, and German”.
According to president Unione Italiana Vini Lamberto Frescobaldi, “on no alcohol wines, today, the sector is stable with 4 turn signals: we have to solve fiscal and law junctions, and we have to begin to produce”. Frescobaldi is positive about the interest of no alcohol wines: “would we have ever thought to talk about no alcohol wines at Vinitaly some years ago? It is a good signal. From outside, there is who sees us as a “dusty” sector, but we have always been bright. Openness is needed, I don’t like the word tradition, it is the melting pot of our fears. But, now, for no alcohol wine, we need to anticipate the law procedure on fiscal service. I’m not worried about quality because we have “very severe” clients”. And, when there will be the clarification on how to make the product, quality will grow much, and in short times”.
Castelletti states that “we have to analyze the phenomenon with lucidity as an additional opportunity, certainly not resolution for Italian wine. So high growth rates reflect a numerical calculation starting from very low figures, but the tangible data of an interest for a market which can represent an important ally for Italian wineries remains”.
The president Veronafiere Federico Bricolo explained that “there is a much interest in this sector. Today, it is a niche, but it will grow, it is a trend which couldn’t be brought to the greatest Italian wine fair in the world”.
Francesca Benini, commercial and marketing director Cantine Riunite & Civ talks about an interest for “No-Lo”, which, “from the part of horeca channel increased in Italy. I believe that it is a niche in value destined to grow, a category which can supply replies to emerging needs, but it doesn’t substitute traditional wine. No alcohol wine can have a road mainly on blending, low alcohol wine its road”.
During the conference, project “Dewine” was presented by Eugenio Pomarici, professor at the University of Padua in collaboration with the universities of Naples Federico II, Foggia, and of Basilicata: the aim, throughout the realization of surveys, is to transfer to the sector an updated framework about the evolution of the phenomenon of “No-Lo” wines. By Autumn, the publication of the results of quantitative surveys is foreseen.