Slight drop in Central-North, rise in the South: harvest forecast by Accademia della Vite e del Vino

The usual premise is, as always, necessary. With the current climate situation, predictions are difficult, everything can change quickly, as seen in recent years. This applies to one of the most anticipated and important phases of Italian agriculture, the grape harvest. Meanwhile, the first grape bunches in Italy are beginning to be collected, and there is a “historical background” to consider, namely, winter and spring seasons, which have an impact on the expected yield. Accademia Italiana della Vite e del Vino- Italian Academy of Vine and Wine provides an overview of the situation, an institution founded in Siena on July 30, 1949, following a proposal by the National Viticulture Committee. Its goal was to create a center to promote the progress of Italian viticulture, and today it includes over 550 members across various categories. The Italian Academy of Vine and Wine has analyzed the state of grapes across Italy for the territory with an update on August 3. Forecasts for the 2025 wine-growing season in Italy “indicate variable weather conditions from North to South, but generally favorable, with some regional differences in vegetative cycles, phytosanitary management, and production estimates”. Regarding Veneto, one of Italy’s “big” wine regions, the report mentions “slightly above-average temperatures in March and June, rainfall similar to 2024 with brief drought periods, delayed bud break and flowering, early varieties expected to be harvested from late August, slightly higher yields and good quality anticipated”. Moving to Friuli-Venezia Giulia, after a “rainy May, June and July were hot and dry, requiring irrigation; hailstorms were limited. Bud break occurred 4–5 days earlier than usual, and Merlot is expected to be harvested 10 days earlier. Glera is behind in veraison but is currently catching up. Ribolla is among the varieties showing the most advanced veraison. The traditional mid-August harvest of new resistant varieties will be followed by Pinot Grigio, expected for around August, 20th”. Positive outlooks are reported for South Tyrol, where, according to the Academy, “temperatures were above average in the early months, with no late frosts. June was very hot, while July was cooler and wetter, recording the highest rainfall of the year. Vineyards show good vegetative health, thanks to a balance between growth and climate conditions. From a sanitary perspective, the situation is under control: downy mildew and powdery mildew are not a concern, while some botrytis has appeared due to the high humidity in July. Flavescence dorée and esca disease are within normal levels compared to last year. In terms of quality, the 2025 harvest appears promising, although much will depend on the conditions in August and September. Production estimates suggest a slight increase of 2–3% compared to 2024, mainly due to the low impact of downy mildew. Newly introduced grape varieties do not significantly affect overall volumes”. Coming to the Northwest, and, therefore to Piedmont, Liguria, and Lombardy, the Academy reports that “spring 2025 was the sixth wettest in the past 60 years in Piedmont, with an average rainfall exceeding 450 millimeters. Early in the season, downy mildew pressure was very high, but thanks to precise monitoring systems, control efforts were effective and damage was limited. The harvest is expected to begin about 10 days earlier than in 2024, with a projected production decrease of 10–15% compared to last year”. Descending to Central Italy, in regions such as the Marche, Emilia-Romagna, and the Abruzzi, spring was “colder, causing delays in vine development. Veraison was delayed in Marche and the Abruzzi, while it was early in Emilia. Spring rains were frequent but not problematic. The striped grape moth is present and should be monitored. Overall, vineyard productivity appears to be very good, with expected increases compared to 2024 for Lambrusco (+10%), Trebbiano Romagnolo (+5%), Trebbiano Toscano or Bianchello (+10%), Verdicchio (ranging from +5% to +15%), and Montepulciano (+10%). Production estimates are slightly down for Ancellotta and Pignoletto, the latter affected by flower drop and poor fruit set”. In Tuscany, “the beginning of the year saw January, February, and March which made the higher temperatures compared to the average, and the highest ones register in the past 70 years. Winter was rainy, and the second half of June brought a heatwave; bud break and flowering occurred early, veraison is within the normal range, and fertility is slightly below average. For Sangiovese, production in 2025 is expected to be in line with the 10-year average, but lower than in 2024. A slight decrease is also expected for other varieties. The harvest will begin in mid-August for early varieties and in early September for Sangiovese, starting from the coast and ending in early October in inland areas. Also for Umbria and Lazio - comments the Academy of Vine and Wine - a decrease in grape production compared to the previous year is forecasted. In Umbria, downy mildew attacks have been reported, while in Lazio, vines may have been affected by the heatwave between late June and early July”. Descending to South, and, therefore to Puglia, Basilicata, and Calabria, “the exceptional weather patterns of this vintage have left their mark. Bud break occurred under ideal conditions, with sunny days and temperatures moderated by northern winds. The climate was ideal for bud development and regular phenological phases, with scorching but breezy heat, excellent phytosanitary conditions, and an almost complete absence of fungal diseases. Only a few light hailstorms were reported. Harvest operations for early varieties such as Chardonnay, Sauvignon, and Pinot (used for sparkling bases) will begin in early August, followed by native grapes. Based on initial estimates, the 2025 harvest is shaping up to be a good vintage, with healthy vineyards and a balanced grape load, exceeding both 2023 and 2024, and in excellent phytosanitary condition. Production is expected to increase by 20% compared to last year. If September and October months proceed favorably, these estimates could even be revised upwards”. Chapter Sicily,where forecasts vary by area. In the northwestern part, there is “stable weather with brief heatwaves, slightly delayed but normal phenology, increased downy mildew pressure due to morning fog, and a slight rise in production with heavier berries”. In the southwestern part, “bud break was delayed, and downy mildew was more aggressive in coastal areas. The central-southern zone shows delayed phenology and increased yield. On Etna, delays are significant, with strong impacts from downy mildew and powdery mildew, leading to losses of up to 35%, a postponed harvest, and a 20% drop in production”. Passing to Sardinia, here, “winter was mild with little rainfall, while spring brought abundant precipitation which supported vegetative growth. A hot June limited cryptogamic diseases, with only mild water stress in the Nurra and southern parts of the island. Phenological phases are slightly ahead of 2024 but consistent with previous years. The phytosanitary status is positive, with some localized downy mildew, minor powdery mildew, and leafhopper presence, all manageable with limited treatments. Grape production is estimated to increase by 5% over the three-year average (2021–2023: 666,137 quintals; 2025 estimate: 701,857 quintals), especially in Ogliastra, Sulcis, and southern areas of the island, with grape quality expected to range from good to excellent”. President of Academy of Vine and Wine Rosario Di Lorenzo specified how “we do not intend to issue a bulletin on the quality of the 2025 harvest, as we are fully aware that the final phase of ripening will be crucial for the health, quantity, and quality of the grapes. We know that quality will also be determined by the work carried out during the final ripening period, which is why we will return at the end of the harvest with a report that reflects reality even more closely”. The contributions were made possible thanks to the collaboration of Academy members Vincenzo Gerbi, Vittorino Novello, Emilio Celotti, Angelo Costacurta, Oriana Silvestroni, Paolo Storchi, Leonardo Palumbo, Mariano Murru, Maurizio Bottura, and Rosario Di Lorenzo.