The 2025 harvest is right around the corner, but stocks and low consumption are a concern in Italy

The first bunches of grapes are beginning to be harvested in Italy. Meanwhile, in the southern hemisphere, it is already time to evaluate the 2025 vintage harvests. According to the “Global Market Report” (July 2025) by Ciatti (one of the largest bulk wine brokers in the world), Chile was below average, Argentina and South Africa stable, and Australia and New Zealand, above average. Quality had been assessed as very positive almost everywhere, in the previous report. In the Northern Hemisphere, instead, only California’s harvest is below-average, primarily due to an extended phase of vineyard closures.
In the meantime, winemakers and wine sellers are generally seeking cash flow and waiting for better times. As a matter of fact, Ciatti highlighted, there are many high-quality wines, which are being offered at lower prices than in the past and that have potential multi-year agreements; the declassified AOP/PGI wines from southern France, wines from coastal California, 2024 New Zealand Sauvignon Blancs and Argentine Malbecs. The global bulk wine market, according to Ciatti, was “slow” from June to early July, perhaps more so than usual, and consumption is not picking up. Over the past three years since 2022, inflationary pressure continued, and health trends plus the rapid spread of alternative products, the report emphasized, contributed to negatively impacting wine sales. More competitive prices, a proven solution, however, have not appeared to stimulate demand. “Wine and grape buyers purchase only when there is a real need”, Ciatti explained, adding “ at the moment, this need is related, in general, to limited volumes”. The forecast, in Italy and elsewhere, is that “production surpluses are likely to be considerable in some areas after the 2025 harvest”. Focusing on Italy, Ciatti explained that before the harvest, “Italy experienced the same intense heatwave as much of southern and western Europe between June and July, due to the African anticyclone that increased temperatures up to over 40 degrees Celsius, forcing some regions to ban outdoor work during the middle of the day. Temperatures were milder in the first week of July, bringing rain to central and northern Italy”. Although “the heat has not yet caused problems for the vineyards, this long-standing drought continues to be a significant concern in Puglia and Sicily, where water reserves are very low, and they are afraid that grape production could be negatively affected if August is as hot as it has been in recent years. Activity on the market of sparkling white wines has started up again; however, the rest of the market, especially red wines in general, is at a standstill”. Positive signs in exports are coming from Prosecco, as well as from Pinot Grigio DOC. “Prosecco DOC bottlings, following a slowdown in May, have resumed growth in June, at +12.6% increase compared to June 2024. Pinot Grigio DOC bottlings”, Ciatti continued, “have shown a positive trend. The 2024 vintage is almost sold out, and prices have increased slightly compared to the final volumes available.
The wine industry is experiencing a decline in sales on most markets; therefore the distribution chain has opted for non-short-term planning. Uncertainty on the wine market is reflected at the macroeconomic level. The euro is continuing to get stronger, penalizing exports. In Italy, just like everywhere else, there will likely be considerable production surpluses in some areas after the 2025 harvest. The good news is that interest rates in the European Union were lowered in June, continuing the gradual downward adjustment starting from mid-2024”. The feeling is that “an economic recovery in the EU would contribute, in some ways, to stabilizing wine sales”.