WHAT IS THE 2011 WINE FORECAST? THE SIGNS ARE POSITIVE, MAINLY THANKS TO EXPORTS, ACCORDING TO THE MEDIOBANCA SURVEY OF ITALIAN WINERIES WITH MORE THAN 25 MILLION EUROS TURNOVERS. THE BIGGER ISSUE IS RECOVERY OF PROFITS

There is growth in 2011, though slight, compared to 2010 that could mean recovery of the 5% turnover that the top 103 Italian wineries scored in 2009: the wineries that have a turnover of more than 25 million euros per year and represent 55% of Italian wine production. They forecast further increases abroad.

That is the sentiment that emerges from the 2011 “Survey on the wine sector”, conducted by the MedioBanca research department (for the full version click here), today in Milan. 53% of respondents were optimistic that revenues would increase more than 3%, while 41% said it would stay stable (sales between zero and +3%) and only 6% forecast a slight decline (variation of sales between zero and minus 3%). Almost all respondents agreed that exports would increase and they expect a “plus sign” for 95% of the wineries. In 2010, exports for the biggest wineries had already increased by 8.5% compared to 2009. In keeping with the trend so far, sparkling wines sparked the greatest enthusiasm: 40% expect strong revenue growth; 60% at least a slight increase. Among these positive points, there is also a solid capital structure, where the ratio between debt and equity is less than one (84.7%).

Investments, however, have decreased. In 2010 they increased by 3% compared to 2009 but did not cover the minus 35% in 2009 compared to 2006, the record year. The most obvious problem was net profitability, which in 2009 stopped at 2.9%, less than half of 2005 (6.3%), and well below the beverage sector companies, at 9.7%. This means that the average price of wine sold is unable to recover points, partly due to disposing of surplus product, and partly because many companies, in order to maintain their market share, during the hardest years of the recent economic crisis, have lowered the prices of their products.

Who are the top performers in the wine market? There are three cooperatives: Cantine Riunite & Civ, at 449 million euros; Caviro, 245.9 million euros and Mezzacorona, 144.8 million euros, followed by two historic names of Italian wine: Antinori, 140 million euros and Fratelli Martini, 138.3 million euros.