Allegrini 2018

Wine in the U.S. in 2020 of the pandemic: consumption volumes stable, but values falling

Wine Intelligence forecasts, considering a second wave of Covid-19 in the second half of the year
Wine in the U.S. in 2020 of the pandemic: consumption volumes stable, but values falling

In 2020, in the U.S., the first wine market in the world, and the first partner for Italian wine, will drink more or less the same amount of wine as always, with the collapse of volumes outside home (the estimate is -29% at the end of the year) that will be completely absorbed by the growth in domestic consumption (+10% year on year). What will change, however, will be the overall value of turnover, which will decrease significantly, with consumption moving more and more to wines that wink at the quality/price ratio. It is the forecast of Wine Intelligence, which has cross-referenced its data and surveys with those published by other research agencies such as Iwsr, Nielsen and Wines & Vines Analytics. All this, of course, if there is not the second wave of Covid-19 in the US, which, in the worst-case scenario, if it would lead to a hypothetical new lockdown between October and November 2020, would lead to an overall drop in consumption of -2/-3%, with domestic consumption that, therefore, would not be able to balance even in quantity a further drop in consumption outside the home, which could reach -50% year on year.
Forecasts to be taken with the springs, especially in a scenario like this that changes day by day, in a market that, all things considered, to date, for Italy has substantially held, thanks to a sprint start for the fear of duties (which, in the meantime, is being discussed again), frustrated by the collapse of March and April 2020, with the balance which, according to the Vinitaly-Nomisma Wine Monitor, in the first 4 months of 2020, was +10.8%, for 613 million euros.
“In line with what was observed during and after the global financial crisis of 2008/2010, the volumes of wine consumed in the US are substantially stable,” commented Lulie Halstead, CEO of Wine Intelligence, “but the market mix will shift to less expensive brands, favoring the larger ones, both for domestic production and imported wines. The increase in duties on some important wines and the dominance of domestic wines in Direct to Consumer sales have already put pressure on many wineries and brands in the American market, and will continue to do so in the coming months.

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