Wine & spirits, positive signs from world horeca, but with “moderation”, looking at 2025

After a period of crisis and consumption slowdown, the out-of-home channel shows small recovery signals in countries such as China, Germany, Italy, the UK, the US, donating a little hope for the global market of alcoholic beverages. With categories such as sparkling wines, but also spirits and Scotches, that seem to be the main beneficiaries of this trend, mainly thanks to the improvement of the economic conditions of American Millennials, making one look with a little more serenity at 2025, which is just around the corner. This is the panoramic taken by the latest data by Bevtrac Wave 2 2024 of Iwsr - l’International Wine & Spirits Research, detecting the consumption in the global market, considering the 15 key markets (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, Spain, Taiwan, the Uk, the Usa).
It has to be said that it’s not about an awaited boom because consumption moderation became a key concept, mainly amongst young people, and no alcohol beverages increasingly influence a divided and competitive market. But, anyway, underlines Iwsr, a positive turnaround is registered after a not short period of negative signals.
As already said, consumption moderation seems to be evident both in horeca sector and off-trade, however, one continues to drink ore out of home. Ivana Mitic, Senior Insights Manager for Bevtrac in Iwsr explained that “horeca sector is a key motor of growth, and its slowdown, driven by price increase and change in consumer behavior, hindered Tba (the total of alcoholic beverages, ed) as a whole. The last Bevtrac data of Iswr shows a growing recovery of horeca for some markets offering the much-needed boost for the sector. With the return of consumers in coffee shops and restaurants, we assist to a renewed attention towards premium experiences, and diversified offers, laying the foundations for future growth. The global market of alcoholic beverages is going through a period of deep change. Moderation is settling in consumer habits, whilst no-alcohol offers, and premium categories are gaining ground”.
Even if income improvement of families in North America and Europa hasn’t translated into an increase in alcoholic beverage expense yet, emerging markets such as India (+4% of volume variation in the first semester 2024 compared to 2023), Brazil (+4%), and South Africa (+5%) are showing a strong increase in volumes in the first semester 2024.
Overall, consumers choose to reduce consumption, rather than abstaining completely. An evident “moderation sentiment” in almost all the markets, so that Europeans are increasingly more likely to affirm that they are reducing alcohol consumption. “Low-frequency” drinkers became the largest group in terms of consumption levels in Europe, North America, and Apac (Asia-Pacific), and per capita consumption of no-alcohol products is growing in North America, India, and China. Germany and Spain show higher penetration rates in this category (40%), whilst in the US, “no-alcohol” spirits are gaining ground. But, despite the leap, the category remains price-sensitive.