“With 15% tariffs on wine, the damage amounts to 25 billion dollars, even for the U.S. Economy”

Tense hours on Usa-Eu axis, as August 1st approaches, with the official list of European products subject to 15% tariffs from the United States still pending, along with the list of those spared under the “zero-for-zero” agreement, which many hope will include wine. This hope, as it has been repeatedly written in recent days, is shared by both Europe and States. As reiterated by Unione Italiana Vini - Uiv, “tariffs will not only affect consumption but will have a severe impact on the U.S. economy, with total damages estimated at 25 billion dollars”, said Uiv president Lamberto Frescobaldi. This estimate, elaborated by Uiv Observatory, is based on the direct, indirect, and induced spin-off of the entire wine sector in the U.S. during the distribution, retail, and transportation phases alone. According to the “2025 Economic Impact Report” by WineAmerica, this value amounts to 144.4 billion dollars, a figure including not only sales revenue but also the value generated along the distribution chain, the positive effects of wages and purchasing power, and increased demand for goods and services in related sectors. “A spillover effect that, according to Uiv calculations, would be inhibited by the 15% tariffs on European wines, resulting in a 25 billion dollars loss”. “Wine - Frescobaldi continued - must be included in the package of European agricultural products eligible for zero or reduced tariffs currently being negotiated. This is a request not only from us but also from our American partners, as confirmed by communications we’ve received from the US Wine Trade Alliance and our overseas importers”. According to Uiv Wine Observatory, the tariffs would lead to a 3 billion dollar drop in consumer value for Italian, French, and Spanish wines, which in turn would create a major shortfall for distributors and retailers. The reduction in consumer value is just the tip of the iceberg of a snowball effect that would impact the overall socio-economic footprint of the wine business in the U.S., with clear consequences for wages, demand for goods and services, and employment, even beyond the wine sector. According to Uiv analysis, explains a note, the 15% tariffs would reduce the total (direct, indirect, and induced) economic impact of wine in the U.S. from 144.4 billion to 120 billion dollars within a year, a -17% drop compared to the current value. Within this scenario, the decline in the value of Italian wine consumption alone would account for 13.5 billion dollars of that loss. In terms of consumer value, Italian wine is expected to see a 20% drop within a year, while domestic wines, already in decline for over three years, are projected to fall by -13% by August 2026. Similarly, negative trends are expected for other Eu wines (-19%) and non-Eu wines (-16%) - Argentinian, Australian, and Chilean - which are also already declining and now subject to new tariffs.