World wine market slows down in the first half of 2025: -2.3% in value at 16.7 billion euros

It is no surprise, and the impression is that, with the 15% U.S. tariffs set last month of August, the following semester could see an even deeper “red.” After a record-breaking 2024, 2025 is proving to be a challenging year for wine, with consumption, and consequently orders, struggling to gain momentum, at least compared to a year ago. According to customs data analyzed by the Interprofesional del Vino de España (Oive), the first half of 2025 was negative for global wine trade, which saw a decline of -2.3% in value, reaching 16.7 billion euros, and -3.7% in volume to 4.6 billion liters, with an average price of 3.57 euros per liter.
Compared to the first half of 2024, global wine trade dropped by 180.8 million liters and 387.7 million euros, despite a 6-cent increase in the average price per liter, demonstrating product declining demand. Difficulties, both in value and volume, which affected nearly all categories: bottled wine, the most traded type globally, totaled 11.3 billion euros (-3.1%) and 2.3 billion liters (-4.8%), leading the overall decline with 366.8 million euros and 119.4 million liters lost compared to the first half of 2024. Even sparkling wines, though with a smaller drop and close to stability, declined to 3.72 billion euros (-0.3%) and 479 million liters (-0.4%), meaning 13 million euros and 2 million liters less compared to the same period in 2024. Bulk wines, while losing 5.7 million euros and 40.2 million liters globally, fell to 1.2 billion euros (-0.4%) and 1.6 billion liters (-2.4%), but showed signs of resilience. As for bag-in-box wines, the trend was also negative, and, therefore, -1% in value to 345 million euros and -5.3% in volume to 175 million liters.
In terms of imports, the United States remains the leading country with 3.2 billion euros in the first six months of 2025, +6.5% compared to the same period in 2024. However, as Oive points out, this increase may be linked to strong purchases of French, Italian, and Spanish wines at the beginning of 2025, in anticipation of tariffs which were later set at 10% in April and 15% in August. The UK, the second-largest importer by value, did not fare well, with 1.98 billion euros (-5.4%), followed by Germany (+6.9%), just below 1.3 billion euros. Positon No. 4 for Canada (836.1 million euros, -5.2%), ahead of Japan (709.4 million euros, +4.3%), which performed well thanks to sparkling wine purchases (+14.6%), allowing it to surpass the Netherlands (687.6 million euros, -4.4%). Position No. 7 for China (651 million euros, -1.2%), followed by Switzerland (604.6 million euros, +5.8%, curiously the top importer of bag-in-box wines), Belgium (553.2 million euros, +3.4%), and Sweden (453.4 million euros), which overtook France, which stopped at 433.8 million euros (-0.8%).
In terms of volumes, in the first half of 2025, Germany leads with 647.9 million liters (-1.1% compared to the first semester of 2024), followed by the United States (645.4 million liters, +1.9%), the UK (551.9 million liters, -6.4%), France (284.4 million liters, -0.3%), Canada (187.2 million liters, +5.3%), the Netherlands (176.8 million liters, -12.5%), Belgium (158.4 million liters, +16.6%), Italy (129.2 million liters, -28.5%, the steepest drop among top producers, losing 51.6 million liters compared to the first semester of 2024), China (114.1 million liters, -12.6%), and Japan (111.3 million liters, -0.9%).
What will happen in the coming months remains to be understood, but concerns persist. The United States, the undisputed leader in wine imports (including Italian wine), after strong growth in the first semester of 2025 (+30.8% in January, +20.2% in February, +14.7% in March compared to the same months in 2024), began to decline in April (-1.5%), continued in May (-16.8%), and slightly recovered in June (-3.1%). So far, compared to the first semester of 2024, the increase in value has been 197.1 million euros. But, the “weight” of the 15% tariffs could become a significant obstacle to the “health” of the wine trade balance. Concerns also extend to the UK, the first European wine importer and second globally: June 2025 saw a discouraging -47.3% in import value compared to 2024, and overall, the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 shows a loss of 113.6 million euros. While Japan is showing promising signs thanks exclusively to sparkling wines (+36.3 million euros in this category in the first semester 2025 compared to 2024), the decline in Russia, historically a key partner for Italian wine, should not be forgotten: bottled wine volumes dropped to 68.6 million liters (-37.1%), and even sparkling wines, despite remaining in the top ten, saw a value drop of -25.7% in the first semester of 2025 (total imports amounting to 84.3 million euros). All these factors have to be considered for a wine market that, despite its challenges, remains afloat, but with many questions for the upcoming months.