From “boomerang risk effect” to “instability” danger. Italian reactions to rejected US duties

The news that the tariffs imposed by Trump a little less than a year ago on products from around the world, including the European Union (and wine), are illegitimate, has generated, as expected, a series of reactions from voices in the sector. The Supreme Court decision, stating that the American president “can’t impose tariffs based on the International Emergency Powers Act, the one the president invoked to justify the “Liberation Day tariffs””, effectively opens a new chapter, one whose developments are currently indecipherable in a “soap opera”, that of the tariffs, which seems never-ending.
“Paradoxically, the wine industry can’t celebrate the Supreme Court rejection of the legitimacy of the tariffs. A reimposition of the tariffs through alternative legal means appears more than likely, along with the strong risk of uncertainty that this decision may create in trade relations between Europe and the United States”. These are the words by Lamberto Frescobaldi, president of Unione Italiana Vini (Uiv), following the Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump use of emergency tariff powers. Frescobaldi added that “considering the damage inflicted on the sector in recent months, we hope that the stalemate can be resolved soon so as not to further disrupt commercial and monetary dynamics”. According to Unione italiana vini (Uiv) Observatory, the second half of the year has proved complicated for Italian wine in the United States due to the tariffs but also because of a decline in consumption habits which has been underway for several years. Uiv projections based on export data to the U.S. forecast a significant drop for Italian wine, with an expected full-year 2025 close at -9% and a contraction of 177 million euros compared to the previous year (-225 million euros estimated in the second half compared to the same period in 2024). “The tariffs - affirmed Uiv secretary general Paolo Castelletti - add to an already difficult U.S. market, with wine consumption in 2025 down (-5%) for the fifth consecutive year. This ruling, which we agree with on the merits, risks a boomerang effect, creating further uncertainty and a halt in orders as we await clearer regulatory guidance from the American administration”.
The United States is by far the top destination for Italian wines, with a value in 2024 of 1.93 billion euros, accounting for 24% of total Italian wine exports worldwide. Regarding exports to the U.S., in 2025 Italian wine, according to Istat data analyzed by WineNews, recorded -8% in value (1.62 billion euros) and -5.7% in volume (312.2 million liters) from January to November compared with the same period in 2024.
Among the reactions, there was also that of Confagricoltura president Massimiliano Giansanti, who described the news as “unexpected” but also “a strong decision by the U.S. Supreme Court, which dismantles the entire legal basis on which President Trump tariffs were founded. All this generates deep instability at a time when we need certainty and have begun a path with our American importers. I believe and hope that an agreement with the U.S. president can be quickly reached to understand which tools he may use in relation to previously defined arrangements. On the contrary, if Trump wants to remove the tariffs, as it was the case in the past between the EU and the U.S., this would obviously be highly desirable for us European producers”.
The news of the Supreme Court overturning Trump tariffs opens a new scenario of uncertainty for Italian and European agri-food exports, but represents a watershed moment to restore balance in the EU-U.S. market if Brussels acts courageously and promptly to seize the opportunity of this ruling. This was stated by Cristiano Fini, president of Cia-Agricoltori Italiani, who added that “the Court confirms what had long been in the air. Generalized tariffs can’t be imposed using economic emergency powers (Ieepa) without explicit authorization from Congress. It remains necessary to monitor developments on unilateral and global tariffs, the 10% duties applied to nearly all trading partners and at the heart of the Court decision, which effectively renders Trump action illegal”. Now the matter moves to Congress, and Cia-Agricoltori Italiani hopes for rapid action that does not further jeopardize EU-U.S. exports. According to the association Studies Office basing on Istat data, “there is no denying the collapse of agri-food exports in 2025, a first for Italy, with -5% at year-end and December posting the worst figure at -27%. Not even the boost from early 2025 was enough to balance the situation. Last year, still recalls Cia-Agricoltori Italiani, American consumers purchased 353 million euros less in Italian-made food products. This collapse occurred domestically between June and December, when national agri-food exports fell by 668 million euros”.
Coldiretti and Filiera Italia “welcome the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Trump tariffs, which caused a significant slowdown in Italian agri-food exports, with losses nearing 400 million euros in total and peaks in some sectors, such as wine, of over -8%. Now, as Coldiretti and Filiera Italia leaders have consistently emphasized, it is essential to build dialogue, not confrontation, between Europe and the U.S., to support our economies and avoid the chaos that the announcement of Trump upcoming moves is already creating”.