Italian wine exports go negative, but don’t collapse: -0.86% over the first four months of 2024

The most difficult months, with the “bogeyman” of tariffs, an issue still evolving, will probably have to come. But, albeit with its complications, Italian wine exports continue to be alive even if, for the first time in a long time, it is preceded by the negative sign. Globally, in the first 4 months 2025, it marks 2.5 billion euros in value, down -0.86% on the same period 2024, and -3.67% in volume, at 665,436,632 liters. This is according to Istat data released this morning and analyzed by WineNews. The two main markets for Italy, the United States and Germany, still remain positive in value. Russia, on the other hand, collapses, and the United Kingdom also goes down: their slowdown has had an important weight, especially the Russian one, for the economic “balance” of Italian wine.
There was fear of a minus sign coming from the United States, after “precautionary” stocks of late 2024 and early 2025 to anticipate the dreaded announced duties. And if the backlash, in the four-month period ended with April, the first month in fact with the certainty of the duties imposed by Trump (for a few hours at 20 percent, then at 10 percent from April 5) was not of the “deadly” kind, the growth, compared to previous months, is nevertheless at a much slower rate: +6.59% on April 2024 for a value of 667.2 million euros.
Germany, which remains the European leader in imports, is stable, but still with a positive sign at 376.6 million euros (+0.2%), unlike the United Kingdom, which loses about 15 million euros in the comparison with the first four months of 2024, stopping at 227.2 million euros (-6.3%). Switzerland, on the other hand, holds its ground at 131.2 million euros (+0.41%), which is ahead of Canada (125.5 million euros, +8.4%), a country that shows good growth and could have potential for Italian wine in light of the almost total freeze in U.S. wine purchases after tensions with the Trump government. The drop, albeit marginal, also affected France where it fell below 100 million euros, and thus 99.5 million (-0.9%). Good news, however, came from the Netherlands (+1.6%) at 80.5 million euros, and Belgium (+4.3%) at 72.8 million euros. Staying in line in comparison with a year ago is Sweden, which touches 63.2 million euros (-0.6%).
Among those going down is Japan at 54.5 million euros (-10.8%) and, above all, Russia, whose figure weighs heavily on Italian exports in the first four months: the value of 46.1 million euros means -55% compared to twelve months ago (more than 56 million euros less). Also down is Austria (-4.4%) to 47.8 million euros, and China, which continues its descent in purchases of Italian wine (-17.6% to 24.1 million euros). From the eastern market a recovery, albeit “timid”, comes from South Korea (+2.6%) to 17.5 million euros.
There has been a slowdown, that is beyond doubt, and in the coming months, it is easy to see that things will get even worse. Without forgetting, however, that 2024 was hailed as a record year for Italian wine exports. The stalemate in volumes, with so many Italian wineries suffering from unsold inventories and a harvest now just around the corner, still gives pause for thought. But the scenarios in the coming months cannot yet be predicted; the U.S. duty rate (with the “nightmare” of 30% from August 1, while negotiations with the EU go ahead) is the decisive variable that can turn the tables, in a phase that is unquestionably among the most complex in recent history for the wine market.