Italians’ shopping cart gets “heavier” in value, but lighter in quantity. Wine declines

Italians’ shopping carts are getting “heavier” in value (+4.4%), but lighter in quantity. Clear and direct effect of inflation, which has weighed in the first 9 months of 2022 and will also affect the end-of-year holidays, a key moment for the budgets of food companies and wineries. In a historical phase in which, more than ever, convenience and Italianness of products are key values in purchasing choices. Putting this in black and white is data from the Ismea NielsenIQ Observatory on food consumption. From the generalized cuts in the quantities purchased, which range from -1% in milk to -31% in fresh fish, to the shift in preferences toward products with a lower unit value, from the partial abandonment of the digital channel to the greater orientation toward discount stores and private label products, there are many countermeasures taken to limit the impact of the inflationary push, which is confirmed at 11.8% in November.
The foods that consumers tend to lean toward, the report explains, are consumer staples such as pasta and eggs, which are among the few references that have not experienced reductions in the quantities purchased, despite price increases. For pasta, volumes remain stable against 22% higher outlays, while egg consumption is up 3.3% in quantity and 10.1% in value. In contrast, ethnic foods, various types of “free from” (gluten-free, lactose-free, salt-free, and so on) and ready-made foods suffer a setback.
On the other hand, looking at the dynamics of spending at large-scale retail outlets, decreases are noted only for fish (with peaks of -6.9% for fresh fish) and spirits. More specifically, purchases in value of wine (-4.6%), sparkling wine and champagne (-1.9%) and, to a lesser extent, beer (-0.8%) are down, partly reflecting the return of eating out occasions. Suffering the most are young families with very young children, who experience the greatest economic difficulties, while more mature families are less sensitive to the crisis, keeping their shopping carts almost unchanged by absorbing an increase in spending. Looking at individual sectors, spending on oils (+15.5%) is up sharply, followed by that on soft drinks (+11.2%) and cereal derivatives (+8.9%). Also important are the increases in spending on meats (+7.7%).
Among distribution channels, the supermarket remains the predominant channel with 40% share and a positive performance that compared to pre-Covid makes it gain 2 percentage points. Discount with 22% share gains 4 percentage points over 2019 with sales increased by almost 25%. According to Nielsen’s Inflation Observatory, however, Discount is also the channel where inflation is highest: close to 20 percent at the beginning of October.
Down, however, is the number of households using digital channels to make grocery purchases, after booming in 2020 and 2021, in fact, the choice of the physical channel returns to prevail over the nearly 1 million households that had tried digital in the previous year. In fact, however, purchases through digital channels remain 80% higher than pre-Covid, but 6% fewer households did so in 2022 than in 2021.