Key trends in world alcohol consumption in 2023 by Iwsr: how much will the economic crisis weigh on

The world coming out of the pandemic is rediscovering itself a bit more fragile, especially from an economic point of view, than before, and it is about to face a long, and in some ways tough, period of adjustment. The beverage market, like every other consumer sector, will also experience major changes, and entirely or partially new consumer trends, as told by the eight key trends that will drive markets from 2023 onward, which emerged from Iwsr data.

First, premiumisation, a trend that is far from new, but one that is bound to find new interpreters: if during the pandemic in key markets such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany it was the Millennials who led the upswing in consumption, bringing them into the home, with the current economic fragility it will be those who enjoy greater stability and less debt, and thus the older generations, who will sustain growth. In China, for example, Iwsr consumption data show a decline in alcohol consumption among the population who are between 18 and 24 years old, presumably linked to 20% unemployment among recent college graduates.

Speaking of China, the Dragon is most likely in danger of losing its leadership in the consumption of luxury spirits, overtaken by both the United States and India, propelled by a booming economy, rising per capita income, and newfound consumer confidence, at the peak of a trend that began even before the pandemic. On the other hand, China, on the other hand, has to deal with the Beijing government's willingness to reduce alcohol consumption, the stalemate in its economy, and the structural decline in consumption among young people, although, on closer inspection, the country is still waiting for the post-pandemic rebound, which could balance the negative trends in the near future.

For beer, the most promising growth opportunities lie in India, Latin America, and Africa, where, according to Iwsr, global consumption volumes will grow at a rate of 1% per year through 2026, thanks mainly to Mexico, South Africa, Colombia, India, and Brazil, which is set to become the leading market for on-trade beer consumption. The other side of the coin is the decline that shows no sign of stopping in such key markets as China and the United States, with the 2020 figure (-7%) being the worst ever globally, partly due to consumption bans enforced in South Africa and India and production disruptions at so many plants in Mexico.

On the fourth point, a confirmation: sparkling will continue to spur growth in the wine category, which will continue in its well-established trend of declining volumes consumed, with the exception of just Prosecco and Champagne, but it will be all the high-end bubbles that will do well. In general, after the collapse of the pandemic period, with restrictions on celebrations and venues, sparkling wine consumption has found itself even stronger, thanks to a consumption that is now decontextualized from formal events alone and has become everyday. Growth in premium and higher-end Prosecco is driven by strong demand in the United States and the United Kingdom, where volumes grew 8% and 5%, respectively, in the first half of 2022 (over the first half of 2021), while Champagne growth is concentrated in the U.S. and Australia.

The Ready-to-drink category will also experience a premiumization process, and in fact, according to Iwsr forecasts, value growth will be +7% per annum between 2022 and 2026, significantly higher than the volume growth rate over the same period: +5%, compared to +14% in the 2016-2021 period. Momentum will remain higher in the markets of Japan and China, but the reference market, namely the U.S., looks set to stabilize. Over the past two years, globally, the premium ready-to-drink segment has grown more than any other, thanks to new products linked to top brands, which for many consumers represent an upgrade over beer.

Slowing, after the boom of the pandemic period, growth in online alcohol sales. Past lockdowns and closures, it is back to performance similar to that of the pre-pandemic period: from +40% in 2020, it is back to +16% in 2021 in the 16 major markets, still higher than the +12% in 2019, and online sales growth is therefore expected to normalize in the coming years. However, the trajectory remains positive, with alcohol e-commerce expected to contribute an additional $10 billion to the alcoholic beverage industry’s sales between 2021 and 2026, reaching $40 billion annually by 2026, when a quarter of online sales will be beer, cider, and Ready-to-drink, with the share of wine, the category most sold online, shrinking slightly from the total, but certainly not in an absolute sense.

Just as we saw in the pandemic years, economic difficulties will return centrality to domestic consumption, with out-of-home consumption limited to fewer occasions, in a scenario where businesses far from tourist centers and cities will increasingly struggle, amid declining customers and rising operating costs. The recovery of alcohol consumption in the on-trade channel will therefore be slower than expected, although pre-pandemic volumes are likely to be recovered by 2026, at least globally.

Finally, moderation in consumption, which will not be dictated by health reasons, but more by economic reasons, and thus by the need to cut household spending. Moderation, both as a lifestyle choice for health and well-being and as an economic strategy in the face of rising inflation, is taking different forms: from reducing the number of occasions on which alcohol is consumed, replacing it with non-alcoholic beverages, or avoiding midweek aperitifs, to reducing the number of alcoholic beverages consumed on a specific occasion, drinking less or, in some cases, combining the consumption of an alcoholic beverage with a non-alcoholic or low-alcohol beverage. Half of all adult drinkers in the top 17 markets surveyed at Iwsr on the price issue in the second half of 2022 expressed an intention to moderate alcohol consumption, a trend particularly strong in European markets where confidence in the economy is lower, such as the United Kingdom and Germany. The established trend toward moderation as a health and wellness choice continues, especially among those with higher incomes, in countries such as the United States, Canada, Australia, and China. Germany remains the largest market for non-alcoholic and low-alcohol products, however smaller markets, such as the United States, Canada, and Australia, will show more dynamic growth, higher than Germany.