Liv-Ex, bad the first trimester 2025. With top names of Bordeaux and Italy trying to rebound

Technical attempts of rebound, buried by the effect Usa duties, and, mainly, by the threat, then reentered, of additional tariffs of 200% on Eu wines: it is the possible reading of the first quarter of 2025 of fine wines market, at least according to Liv-Ex observartory, analyzed by WineNews. Overall, the framework remains negative with all the indexes in drop since the beginning of the year, and small positive signals arrived in March only by those linked to Italy, and to top brands of Bordeaux. Liv-Ex 100, the index of reference, in March, marked an other -0.7 month by month, the worst performance ever bringing the balance to -2% since the beginning of the year, and that of 12 months to -10% (index of which, for Italy, Barolo 2019 by Bartolo Mascarello, Barolo Falletto Vigna Le Rocche Riserva 2017 by Bruno Giacosa, Barolo Monfortino Riserva 2014 and 2015 by Giacomo Conterno, Brunello di Montalcino Riserva 2016 by Biondi-Santi, Barbaresco 2019 by Gaia, Sassicaia 2019, 2020 e 2021 by Tenuta San Guido, Solaia 2021 and Tignanello 2020 and 2021 by Antinori, and Ornellaia 2021 and Masseto 2020 and 2021 by Frescobaldi Group, in addition to the “new entry” of 100% Sangiovese Toscana Igt 2019 by Soldera Case Basse are part).
Liv-Ex 1000 tries to resist, the greatest in numerical terms among the indexes, which, with a -0.1% in March, fixes 2025 loss at -2.1%, and at 9.9% in 12 months. The drop of the main French sub indexes continues even of few decimals (Bordeaux 500 -2.9% since the beginning of the year, Champagne 50 -2.5, Burgundy 150 -2.9%, among others), with the small exceptions of Bordeaux Legends 40 which marked +0.1% in March attesting at +0.2% from the beginning of the year, the only one in the black in the first period of 2025, and of Italy, seen that it says hello to a positive March (+0.4%), which makes 2025 ongoing get closer to parity (-0.4%), Italy 100, which, after the last update, is made up of Barolo di Bartolo Mascarello of all vintages from 2011 to 2020, as well as Barbaresco di Gaja, Barolo Monfortino Riserva by Giacomo Conterno, vintages 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2015, Barolo Le Rocche del Falletto Riserva by Bruno Giacosa 2000, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2017, and, still, of all the vintages from 2012 to 2021 by Sassicaia, Solaia, Tignanello, Ornellaia, and Masseto, in addition to 100% Sangiovese Toscana Igt by Soldera Case Basse of vintages from 2009 to 2019 (excluding 2010). Particularly, looking at the top performers of Italian index, Bruno Giacosa stands out clearly with Barolo Falletto Vigna Le Rocche Riserva marking +72.1% since the beginning of the year with vintage 2014 (the best overall also of Liv-Ex 1000, ed), and +21.2% with 2001, but also +12.6% with 2000. But, in 2025, also Barbaresco 2020 by Gaja, Toscana 100% Sangiovese 2014 and 2018 by Soldera Case Basse, Sassicaia 2012 by Tenuta San Guido, Barolo 2011 by Bartolo Mascarello, and Tignanello 2013 by Antinori mark double-digit increases.
In any case, observes Liv-Ex, the average value of transactions increased by 14.7% in March thanks to the increase of the exchanges of Burgundy wines of higher value compared to the first two months of the year, even if the general levels of the first trimester 2015 are well under compared to those of the same period 2024. Obviously, as said, the impact of duty controversy weighed a lot considering also the fact that, in 2024, the Usa became the first trading floor in terms of buyers for Liv-Ex operators. According to which, since March, 13th, when Trump threatened duties at 200%, American collectors stopped their offers. Which, obviously, then restarted, but with a much lower rhythm compared to before, also seen the uncertain scenario with duties added on EU products and wines, up to today, frozen at 10% for the next 3 months, but in a framework which is susceptible to sudden changes.
And, which, will impact, according to Liv-Ex, also on “en primeur” market of Bordeaux seeing “Semaine des Primeurs” closing exactly today, before which, wine merchants, according to an analysis by “Wine Lister”, hoped for price reductions of -30% for harvest 2024 (however scarce) on the line of what has already occurred for that of 2023 the last year. And, with slowly American demand, with purchases foreseen to recover, on Bordeaux, by the Usa, only when magazines will need to be fulfilled, a further price drop of Bordeaux (which, historically, marks the trend of most fine wines market) seems the most logical consequence. But, not taken for granted. Considering other macrovariables which are not strictly linked to wine, such as, for example, the currency ongoing of the dollar compared to euro (but, also compared to British pound), and that of American and world economy more generally.