Harvest 2025, early “forecasts” already underway: 45 million hectoliters, according to Coldiretti

Making predictions about the quantity and quality of the 2025 Italian grape harvest, which is just beginning, is a bit like the summer football transfer market: everything can change in an instant, and everything can be denied. Yet, Coldiretti is the first to venture some numbers, “on the occasion of the start of the grape harvest in Italy with the picking of the first Pinot Noir clusters for sparkling wine at Massimo Cassarà farm, in Contrada San Giorgio, Salemi, in the province of Trapani”, explains the agricultural organization (even if some grapes were already harvested in mid-July in Sicily by Cantine Ermes, ed). “Climatic adversities are not stopping Italian wine, with production expected to reach around 45 million hectoliters this year, and quality ranging from good to excellent”, says Coldiretti, while noting that “although the final assessment traditionally takes place on San Martino Day, initial impressions suggest a vintage that will deliver both quality and quantity, even if the weather developments in the coming weeks will confirm or not these forecasts”. The harvest is starting earlier than the average of recent years, Coldiretti still says, “once again due to high temperatures that have accelerated grape ripening. Drought and bad weather have affected yields in some areas, but without compromising quality, and issues related to diseases such as downy mildew and powdery mildew have been less severe than initially feared, along with attacks from invasive insects. These phenomena have nonetheless impacted production costs, from water to grape protection strategies”. Starting with Pinot and Chardonnay grapes for sparkling wines, Coldiretti specifies, “harvesting operations will extend through August with other white varieties and continue into September and October with Glera for Prosecco, and major native red grapes such as Sangiovese, Montepulciano, and Nebbiolo, concluding even in November with Aglianico and Nerello grapes”.
But, as Coldiretti, headed by Ettore Prandini, reminds us, the beginning of the harvest also comes at a delicate time for the sector, “with U.S. tariffs (still lacking real certainty, ed) targeting the main value market for Italian wineries, while unjustified attempts to demonize a product that is fully part of the Mediterranean Diet continue, despite the well-documented benefits of moderate consumption”. According to Coldiretti analysis, the Italian wine industry generates over 14 billion euros in revenue, with 241,000 wine businesses managing 675,000 hectares of vineyards. Veneto, Sicily, and Puglia are the regions with the largest vineyard areas. It’s also a key sector for employment, with 1.3 million people directly involved in the fields, wineries, and commercial distribution, as well as related activities. Coldiretti also attempts a first regional “mapping” of the 2025 harvest. “In the Abruzzi, a good yield is expected, with 120–140 quintals per hectare, despite hail damage in the province of Chieti. Basilicata also anticipates a good vintage, slightly above the average of the past five years, while Calabria shows positive signs with production increases of 10–15% across all provinces, except for the Crotone area, where frosts may have compromised one-fifth of the crop. Good forecasts in Campania with quantities equal to or higher than last year, although drought is becoming a concern that could affect yields.
Also Emilia Romagna reports average quantities across all provinces, with few issues from climate or mildew attacks. In Friuli Venezia Giulia, harvest conditions vary greatly by area, depending on grape type and irrigation availability. Overall, grape quantity is expected to be on average, though slightly lower in hilly areas, especially for Pinot Grigio and Tocai Friulano. Lazio is expected to see a slight decrease in quantity, while Liguria’s harvest should align with recent years’ averages. Lombardy provinces anticipate a slight increase in production, though mildew-related issues from last year in the Pavia area still need to be assessed. Drought-related concerns affect vineyards in the Marche, particularly between Pesaro and Ancona, but expectations are for an increase, with yields between 120 and 180 quintals per hectare.
Positive forecasts also come from Molise for Trebbiano and Montepulciano, and from Piedmont, especially in the provinces of Asti, Alessandria, and Cuneo, where excellent yields are expected. The only concerns are related to attacks by the Japanese beetle Popillia japonica in the Turin area. In Puglia, the situation is significantly better than last year, with a production increase estimated at +20%, and drought currently not posing major problems for the vines. In Sardinia, production is slightly above or below average depending on the province, but water shortages for irrigation are threatening grapes in the Sassari area, especially in the Nurra zone. Drought also affects Sicilian vineyards, with the harvest expected to remain around 3 million hectoliters, in line with the past three years. Tuscany reports an average harvest with no major issues and excellent expected quality. Production is increasing in South Tyrol, with a +5–10% rise compared to last year. Umbria expects a good harvest despite some challenges from mildew and heat, while the Aosta Valley should remain within normal levels. Veneto also reports production in line with 2024,” Coldiretti concludes.