2024 of wine: exports up, only due to sparkling wines, Italy down. Nomisma Wine Monitor estimates

A slight growth in exports, in value (+4.5%) and the prospect of just exceeding the 8 billion euro threshold in 2024, after 2023 closed at 7.7 billion, slightly down on 2022 (-0.8% according to Istat), and a slight decline in the Italian market (worth more or less half of the wine business’ turnover), with the timid recovery in the out-of-home sector not offsetting the drop in large-scale distribution (-3% in volume), with little chance that the end-of-year holidays will upset the difficult overall picture. These are Nomisma Wine Monitor’s estimates of the performance of Italian wine as we approach the end of the year.
“After a slightly declining 2023 on the export front (in values) and a domestic market under the “inflation effect”, which led to a reduction in sales in quantity of wine in the large-scale distribution of almost 3%, 2024 - despite geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns - is expected to close with a positive sign in exports of more than 4%, thus reaching, albeit slightly, the fateful threshold of 8 billion euros.
The case of domestic market sales in the modern channel is different, where in the first 9 months of this year, there is still a -1.5% drop in volume that is unlikely to be recovered by New Year’s Day”, Nomisma explains. Which also takes a snapshot of the global situation: “from the latest data on wine imports in the main 12 world markets (which account for more than 60 percent of the value of global wine purchases), an aggregate decline in value purchases from abroad of -2.6% was confirmed at the end of the third quarter of 2024. Among the top markets analyzed, only China and Brazil emerged with significantly positive increases in both value and volume. In particular, China’s result (+27%) was mainly attributable to the return of Australian wines to the market, made possible by the elimination of the “super duties imposed by the Beijing government from 2021”. With regard to purchases from Italy, Nomisma explains, positive trends in value were found, in the case of bottled still wines, in the United States and Canada, while more significant growths for Italian sparkling wines were shown in Australia, France, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. And even in 2024, Italian wine exports are supported by sparkling wines and, in particular Prosecco, which now accounts for 2 out of every 10 bottles of Italian wine exported (as also confirmed by Istat data analyzed by WineNews on the first 8 months of 2024).
“Beyond the umpteenth positive performance of sparkling wines, Italian wine exports turn out to be influenced by numerous factors, both geopolitical and economic in nature and that are leading companies to a greater diversification of the markets they preside over”, stresses Denis Pantini, Nomisma's Wine Monitor Manager. Suffice it to think, in fact, about the many unknowns weighing on international markets, about the not too veiled threat of additional duties dreaded by the newly elected President Trump starting next year, but also about the increase in excise duties on wines and alcoholic beverages already applied in Russia and the one planned in the United Kingdom starting February 1, 2025. “The risk of additional duties on imports to the United States could generate indirect export impacts also in other important markets for Italian wine such as Germany, whose economy, already under pressure, could further weaken in light of Trump’s goal of reducing the U.S. trade deficit and which, in the case of the relationship with Germany, is about 80 billion euros”.
The first signs of greater diversification of foreign markets by Italian wine, Nomisma further explains, can be inferred from the dichotomy in the performance of our exports recorded during the current year: while in several “established” markets there are negative variations (Germany in primis, but also Switzerland, France and Norway), in other countries - whose individual weight on our total exports does not exceed 1% - double-digit percentage growths are emerging. This is the case, for example, of Austria, Ireland, Brazil, Romania, Croatia, Thailand and many others that, in this 2024 dense with unknowns, seem to be supporting the growth of Italian wine sales across borders.
Remaining, however, within the national borders, wine sales in the retail channel - analyzed in the Wine Monitor Report with NielsenIq data on the off-trade channel - account for a timid recovery in the third quarter of 2024, which, however, was unable to bring the cumulative first 9 months into positive territory, as far as volumes of wine sold are concerned.
A reduction that is common to all distribution formats, but not to the different categories. If, in fact, still and sparkling wines denote the greatest declines in quantities sold, which become heavier in e-commerce, on the other hand, the performance of sparkling wines continues to stand out positively, which, in the wake of a trend that began in the past months, boast volume growth in all sales channels, although the impact of the high cost of living on the pockets of Italians is still evident, who, in their choice of bubbles, are favoring generic, and cheaper, sparkling wines to the detriment of PDO ones.