Harvest 2025, downward estimates: 44 million hectoliters, according to Legacoop Agroalimentare

As always said, the real figures of the harvest are calculated once the grapes are in the cellar, since forecasts, no matter how accurate they are, are more likely to be disproven the earlier they are made. Now that most white grape varieties have been harvested across Italy, and with the red varieties well underway, Legacoop Agroalimentare has revised downward the estimates from a few weeks ago (such as those by Unione Italiana Vini (Uiv), Assoenologi, and Ismea, which talked about 47.4 million hectoliters, while Coldiretti’s late July forecast pointed to 45 million hectoliters), Legacoop Agroalimentare now estimates a total of 44 million hectoliters. A quantity result, which, if confirmed, might not be unwelcome, given the current challenges in the wine market and the large quantities still awaiting sale (39.8 million hectoliters of wine in storage on July 31st, according to the latest “Cantina Italia” data, ed).
“The 2025 harvest is shaping up to be a year of excellent quality, even though the volumes are lower than initially expected, in line with last year”, declares Cristian Maretti, president of Legacoop Agroalimentare, commenting on the grape harvest, which is now over 75% complete nationwide. Thanks to moderate nighttime temperatures, which helped balance alcohol content and acidity, we can confirm that the wine quality will be exceptional”, affirms Maretti. According to him, “current estimates point to a total of around 44 million hectoliters, a figure more realistic than pre-harvest expectations. Climate events such as drought in parts of the South and rainfall during flowering in areas of the North affected volumes. Particularly, regions which saw very high production in 2024 experienced reductions of 10% to 20%, contributing to a general rebalancing between supply and demand and discouraging speculative practices aimed at unfairly low prices”.
Maretti underlines that if lower volumes are confirmed in France and Spain as well, this could help restore a crucial balance in the market. “This scenario leaves no room for speculation or for operators seeking to drive prices unfairly down, undermining the value of the wine supply chain”, explains the president. For whom, “wine is a sector particularly sensitive to trends and changing consumption habits, which is why a targeted approach is needed. It is wrong and harmful to talk about imposing generalized production cuts. Each market segment has its own characteristics and must be addressed with detailed analysis, without shifting difficulties onto areas that are actually well-positioned and balanced. Some Italian wine regions, paradoxically, absorb and market wines from other areas that have made fewer investments in organization and commercial strategy in recent years. That said, we do support a temporary halt to the annual 1% increase in Italian vineyard area”, explains the president of Legacoop Agroalimentare.
However, promotion remains a key issue, according to Maretti: “despite global uncertainties linked to wars and tariffs, the cooperative system has shown caution and prudence. Major wineries have acted to maintain their market positions by significantly reducing their margins, even absorbing the cost of tariffs in this initial phase to protect their market share. The Italian vineyard has proven its resilience and allows us to consider a “fine tuning” approach to further improve in the future”, concludes Maretti, stressing the importance of promotion aimed at spreading wine culture globally, basing on real production data.