OIV: 2024 harvest less than 2023. World production between 227 and 235 million hectoliters

There is a disturbing common thread uniting the wine world and connecting hemispheres and continents, which has a single common denominator: climate change and its significant impact on wine production. The alarms sounded in 2023 have been repeated now for the 2024 harvest, which has registered, with rare exceptions, production volumes far below the most recent averages. Estimates regarding the global harvest that OIV, the International Organization of Vine and Wine, has just released, confirmed the trend. Based on complete data from 29 Countries that represented 85% of global production in 2023, the global wine production for 2024 has been estimated between 227 and 235 million hectoliters, and the average projection is 231 million hectoliters. Therefore, the “verdict” indicates -2% drop compared to the scarce volume harvested in 2023, and -13% compared to the ten-year average. This is, potentially, the lowest global figure since 1961 (when 220 million hectoliters were produced). On the whole, it is not a complete tragedy, if we take into consideration the overall drop in consumption at the international level. Nevertheless, it is definitely a sign that the sector must take into account for the future.
All across Europe, volumes were generally below average. France holds the leading position (Italy, instead, did better than in 2023, and is the leading Country in terms of volumes). The scenario, with rare exceptions, does not appear to be any better in the Southern hemisphere, where the main wine-producing Nations registered significant declines. Australia, Argentina, Chile, South Africa and Brazil registered production volumes between 4% and 21% below their five-year averages, and here, too, the outlook indicated the lowest production over the last two decades. The United States, the world's fourth largest wine producer, also fell (-3%).
These numbers, as OIV pointed out, demonstrate the wine industry’s growing vulnerability to climate variability, highlighting the urgent need to adapt strategies and resilient viticultural practices to face growing environmental uncertainties. At the same time, a second consecutive year of reduced production, occurring in a market context characterized by a decline in global consumption and high levels of stocks, could actually contribute to a balance on the market, mitigating the immediate economic impact of reduced production for a few regions or producers.
In the European Union (27 countries), the provisional estimate for 2024 wine production is 139 million hectoliters (excluding juice and must). This figure marks 4.8 million hectoliters less compared to 2023 (-3%) and -11% compared to the five-year average. If the estimate were confirmed, it would be the lowest wine production registered since the beginning of the 21st century. The European Union wine production covers 60% of the world total, which is consistent with the previous average of the decade. Preliminary estimates have revealed a complicated landscape of climate disruption in European wine regions, due to climate change, such as severe drought-induced water stress in some areas and unprecedented heavy rainfall and destructive storms in others. Extreme weather events have led to increased disease pressure, substantial damage to vineyards, and challenging growing conditions. However, many regions are reporting excellent quality results, thanks to conscientious vineyard management practices.
In the Southern Hemisphere, where the 2024 harvest was completed in the first half of the year, preliminary production estimates reveal a challenging year. Following the record harvest in 2021, wine production has continued to decline for three consecutive years, and the 2024 total is estimated at 46 million hectoliters, that is, -2% compared to 2023 and -12% below the five-year average, making it the lowest production yield since 2004, driven also by climate change. On the whole, wine production in the Southern Hemisphere represents 20% of the world total, in line with the average over the last decade. In 2024, estimates reveal that Italy will be the largest wine producer in the European Union and the world. Italy’s production totaling 41 million hectoliters, up 2.7 million hectoliters (+7%) compared to 2023. This number reflects a partial recovery compared to the previous year, which was one of the scarcest ever, even though the 2024 volume is -13% lower than the five-year average. Adverse weather conditions have affected most of the Italian wine regions, particularly in the North, where a major portion of the vineyards were hit by hailstorms. France, the second wine producing Country in the world, behind Italy, will produce 36.9 million hectoliters in the 2024 harvest, which means a significant drop of 10.9 million hectoliters (-23%) compared to 2023, and -16% compared to the last five years. This figure is very close to the negative record in 2017 (36.6 million hectoliters). The causes, OIV explained, are the adverse weather conditions throughout the Country, from flowering to harvest, which have had an impact on all of the wine regions, causing problems manifested from continuous rain, epidemics, poor flowering, drought and hailstorms, which have reduced yields. The situation is linked also to the fact that vineyards in historic areas such as Bordeaux, Languedoc-Roussillon and the Rhone Valley have been abandoned. Spain maintains its position as the third largest wine producer in the EU, at an estimated volume of 33.6 million hectoliters in 2024, “plus” 5.2 million hectoliters (+18%) compared to 2023, but 4% lower than the last five years. The increase is driven by relatively positive harvests in Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura, which have allowed recovery from 2023 affected by severe drought, though ongoing water stress continues to put a strain on wine production.
In the USA, the fourth largest wine producer in the world, the preliminary estimate for wine production in 2024 is 23.6 million hectoliters, -3% compared to 2023 and -1% compared to the five-year average. Argentina is number 5, and has an estimated production of 10.9 million hectoliters in 2024, a significant recovery (+23%) compared to 2023, but -4% below the five-year average. The increase follows a challenging 2023 (8.8 million hectoliters), influenced by heavy spring frosts and hailstorms. Argentina is the leading wine producer in the Southern Hemisphere, for 2024. The sixth producer is Australia, at an estimated wine production of 10.2 million hectoliters in 2024, up 5% compared to 2023, but 16% below the five-year average. Australia continues to face challenges related to excessive rainfall and pressure on stocks. Chile, in South America is in position number 7, and is expected to produce 9.3 million hectoliters, a significant decrease, -15% , compared to 2023 and -21% compared to the five-year average. The decrease was caused by late harvesting, due to an unusually cool spring and drought conditions in some wine regions. In South Africa (number 8), wine production in 2024 is calculated at 8.8 million hectoliters, down -5% compared to 2023, and -13% compared to the five-year average. The harvest had to deal with multiple challenges, including frost, heavy winter rains, floods and strong winds. Specifically, extreme flooding in the Western Cape, a once in 200 years event, together with high disease pressure in some areas, contributed significantly to the lower overall volume. Continuing with the “top ten” wine producers in the world, Germany (number 9) at an estimated 8.1 million hectoliters is doing worse than last year (-6% compared to 2023), as well as -5% below the five-year average. German wine production in 2024 has faced challenges reminiscent of the low harvest in 2017 - late spring frosts and heavy summer rains seriously affected yields. Portugal is the tenth largest wine producer in the world, at an estimated production quantity in 2024 of 6.9 million hectoliters (-8% compared to 2023). And, finally, one of the few EU countries to achieve a harvest volume in line with its five-year average (+0.2%).