Wine and the EU: domestic consumption and exports expected to grow. European Commission’s estimates

The world is facing innumerable challenges at the moment, during the post-Pandemic restart. It has been slowed down, instead, by inflation, scarcity of raw materials and logistics as well as the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has had global effects on prices and supplies of energy, wheat, fertilizers and so on. However, the forecasts for European wine, on the whole, seem definitely positive in terms of exports and domestic consumption, and production is also looking good. This is, at least, the very optimistic portrait for the wine sector resulting from the spring update of the “Short-Term Outlook Report for Eu Agricultural Markets” by the EU Agriculture Commission, coming from the analysis of Eurostat data. According to the estimates, at the end of the record-breaking 2021/2022 harvest, European Union wine exports (dominated by Italy, France and Spain) should reach a new all-time high: 34 million hectoliters (+ 6% on an annual basis and + 10% on the five-year average). These estimates are based on strong demand from the United States, while the main export markets in value are the United States, the United Kingdom, China and Canada. Furthermore, the data on consumption within the European Union is also comforting. According to projections, as wine bars and restaurants start reopening (where 30% of the wine drunk in the EU is consumed), and restrictions are relaxed, there will be a +5% growth, and per capita consumption should reset to 22.7 liters, in line with the five-year average. Finally, the forecasts for production are good, even though they are very early and susceptible to upheavals, but they should settle at around 155 million hectoliters, just below the 5-year average. Italy is expected to increase + 19% compared to 2021/2022, and the growth should compensate for the speculated drops to date for France and Spain (-13%).
The overall picture, therefore, shows positively bright colors, compared to the dark shadows that are gathering on the world stage. Awaiting confirmation or denial, however, gives the sector a bit of optimism in view of the second half of the year, which because of summer holidays, harvests and holiday toasts will, as usual, decide the outcome of wine production and wine trade.