Sustainability, healthism and territory: this is where the wine world will “go” in the next decade

A fragmented market, with declining consumption, but at the same time more “qualified” and linked to exports, increasingly crucial to its own economic development. A state of the art, that of wine, which sees reds in decline, with an issue such as sustainability determining the future. An analysis of the present in order to understand where the sector will go in the next decade, in Italy and beyond, was one of the themes of “Sanguis Jovis”, the Alta Scuola del Sangiovese promoted by the Banfi Foundation, in recent days in Montalcino, to investigate and study everything that revolves around one of the main red grape varieties of Italy, and the most important in Tuscany, such as Sangiovese. But also with focus of “global” scope as demonstrated by “The Future is? Possible scenarios for wine 2034”, conducted by Denis Pantini, head of Nomisma Wine Monitor. What should we expect, then, in 10 years’ time for the world of wine? Meanwhile, the growth of concepts such as “sustainability”, “healthiness”, and “terroir”, which are increasingly dear to consumers. Moreover, in established markets, the European Union first and foremost, wine consumption will continue to decline in volume but grow in value based on a global trend sensitive to “premium” products. The migration of consumption, a phenomenon already known, will continue, but with lower growth rates, an effect that will obviously have repercussions for Italian wine and that will be compounded by climate change. And while it is true that the picture is not the best, innovation that can come to the sector’s aid, providing great help, starting with the fight against climate change, should not be forgotten.
To understand the phenomenon of consumption migration, just consider that, globally, 7.5% was lost from 2003 to 2023, so we went from 239 to 221 million hectoliters with Europe in the “red”; only Italy (-26%), staying with consumption, has dropped from 29.3 to 21.8 million hectoliters, but with a more “qualified” choice, considering that in 2022 PDO/PGI wines surpassed generic ones (12.1 vs. 10.2 million hectoliters).
Declining consumption and an export that comes to the sector’s aid, proving to be a real lifeline: in twenty years (2003 - 2022) exports have grown in all the major wine powers, Italy (+109%) coming in at 7.84 million euros, France, the leader, at 12.28 million. And it is precisely on presence in foreign markets that Italy has made great strides, going from leadership in 9 countries in 2003 (17%) to 46 in 2023 (22%), with France growing less, but excelling, nonetheless, in 51 markets. The EU remains the main area for exports of Italian wines (39.6% in 2022), however, losing share in the last twenty years (44.7%), while as far as categories are concerned, red has gone down slightly (now at 56.7%) and the considerable drop in bulk (from 35.1% to 19.4%) has been “absorbed” by sparkling wines, which have risen from 6.4% to 23.9%. The decline in exports of red wines in 2023 (-11.6% in France, -6.9% in Italy, -12.1% in Spain) is a worrying sign showing that consumption is going elsewhere, and after all, casual consumers in Italy have increased from 45% in 2008 to 60% in 2023 with increasing attention to the quality of what is put in the glass, especially by “Millennials” (41%). When asked which types of wine will grow the most in Italy in the next three years, 85% said those with an organic label, same percentage under “sustainable certification” (93% for Gen Z), 79% those made by small producers, 75% believe in wines made from native grape varieties, 68% mid-range wines, 66% made in a specific territory, 50% with lighter glass packaging (59% for Gen Z), 46% think low-alcohol wines will increase (53% for Gen Z).
Even in the United States, Italy’s leading market, 71% think organic and sustainably certified wines will grow, 69% think wines made by small producers will grow, 68% think premixed wines will grow (75% by Gen Z), and 61% think limited editions will grow (70% for Gen Z).
In the U.S., in 2023, wine covered 11% of alcoholic beverage consumption, spirits (10%) and ready-to-drinks (9%) went up, while beer in ten years went from 81% to 70%. Alcohol-free wines are still marginal, but still with signs of clear growth: alcohol-free wines are worth 63 million euros, and in the comparison between 2022 and 2024 there was +16% in volume and +52% in value. A trend that also affects other countries; in Germany, for example, alcohol-free sparkling wines are going strong.
“It is not easy to predict today what may change in ten years”, Denis Pantini explained to WineNews, “the changes that already exist are sudden, from month to month. What we can say is that there are structural factors that already have impacts on this market and will continue to have them in the next ten years. Today the consumer is paying attention above all to three aspects, which are sustainability, healthiness and territory; these are factors that will also spill over into purchasing choices for the next decade, impacting on the type of production that our companies can put into the field, taking into account that they add up to a whole other series of elements, both positive and negative: in the latter case we are talking about climate change, which will necessarily lead many areas of our country to revise a bit even the grape varieties and types of grapes to be grown. We are confident that innovation, which is already making great strides today but will have to make many more in the coming years, I’m thinking of resistant vines as well as precision agriculture, is something to consider. Then there is the question of international markets, which will have to play a leading role in order to keep our supply chain levels sustainable from an economic point of view: there will be fewer and fewer of us in Italy, consumers will drop, and we will increasingly look abroad with a watchful eye on where consumption goes as it moves from one area of the planet to another. Asia will have to be looked at more carefully than it is done today, we know it is a very difficult market but we need to better understand the culture and traditions of these peoples. However, it is clear that the growth rates of wine consumption are there, they are no longer in Europe”.