Export and Gdo (in value) are confident about 2024 of wine, but out of home, only bubbles resist

Some costs are falling and others remain “heavy”, an export that brings good news and a breath of fresh air, while consumption, in the various channels, brings back lights (sparkling wines primarily, but not only) and shadows (especially regarding the volumes). A photograph which, in general terms, but with the necessary distinctions, embraces the wine, spirits and vinegars sector, in a particular year, between instability, purchasing power that does not take off, and international tensions, and not free from critical issues, but which confirmed the weight and importance of a sector that rouses a significant turnover and guarantees many jobs. So much so that “in 2024 which is drawing to a close, the production sectors represented by Federvini have confirmed a significant capacity for resilience, although severely tested by an uncertain economic framework, by an Italian GDP estimated at slight growth (+0.8% ), and by a weak trend in the climate of confidence of businesses and consumers”. This is the photograph returned from the latest edition of the Federvini Observatory, edited by Nomisma and TradeLab.
2024 confirms itself as a complex year for the sector. Faced with a reduction in energy costs, those relating to packaging, although slowly decreasing, are still decidedly higher than the values at the beginning of 2021, in particular PET (+24%), paper (+47%) and glass (+ 67%). The scenario was also negatively characterized by tensions on international markets, also due to the recent introduction of Chinese duties on imports of spirits and the slowdown in consumption outside the home, linked to the unfavorable economic context.
According to Nomisma, in the first 8 months of the year, wine exports exceeded 5 billion euros (a figure also found in the WineNews analysis) and was in line with the average of the main world exporters with a +4, 7% in value and +3.2% in volume over 2023, while major competitors such as France and Spain suffer. Italian sparkling wines remain the protagonists with imports increasing in Australia (+11.2%), France (+8.3%) and the United States (+5.3%). Italian spirits recorded a 4% increase in value for 1.2 billion euros generated in the first 8 months of the year: the Chinese market stands out above all (+24.9%), the German market (+7.5%) and American (+5.5).
The export of liqueurs grows in particular in value in France (+16%), United States (+10%) and Germany (+3%), while grappa records a general slowdown, limiting its growth to Canada (+27% ). The vinegar sector, with exports worth 236 million euros in the first 8 months of the year, marks significant growth, with an increase of 18.6% in value and 15% in volume between January and August 2024 on the same period of the previous year: South Korea emerges as the destination market for Italian vinegar exports with the highest growth rate (+70% in value).
According to Nomisma, large-scale retail sales remain positive in terms of values, but continue to decline in volume (-1.1% compared to 2023), with wines reaching 2.1 billion euros in the first 9 months of the year (+1.1% in value over 2023). Sparkling wines stand out for further growth (+3.5% in value), led by Metodo Classico (+4.6%) and dry Charmat, led by Prosecco (+4.2%). For still and sparkling wines, those with the PGI brand are growing (+1.6% in values and +3.7 in volume), while the PDOs, which represent more than half of the total value of sales, remain stable at values (+ 0.2%), but they are reduced in volumes (-2.9%). In the same period, spirits show different trends, decreasing slightly in value (-0.1%) compared to 2023 and with a turnover of 861 million euros.
Pre-mixed alcoholic aperitifs grew by 9.2% in value, while spirits and spirits confirmed their preeminent position, together representing 42.6% of sales. Grappa remains the most consumed product in the segment, generating sales of 90 million euros, on the contrary, sweet liqueurs such as sambuca (-4.7% in values) and creamy ones (-1.4% in values) suffer, compensated, however, by the excellent performance of amaretto-based products (+5.3% in values) and egg-based products (+6.1% in values). On the vinegar front, in the first 9 months of 2024, performance in large-scale retail trade contracted slightly (-0.3%) with a value of 105 million euros. Apple cider vinegar remains the most dynamic category (+5.4% in value), while Balsamic Vinegar of Modena PGI records a slight contraction (-1.5%).
As regards out of home, the analysis by TradeLab highlights a growth of 1.3% in value for the out of home market in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to a 1.1% decrease in visits. Breakfast confirms itself as the most stable moment of consumption (+1.5% in value), thanks to its economic accessibility and the consolidated habit of Italians.
However, the suffering of evening occasions continues: the aperitif drops by 1.9% in terms of attendance, and dinner by 0.8%, but marks a +1% in value, while consumption during the night significantly decreases (-4.4%). This year, bubbles maintain a positive trend (+1% in value), especially on evening aperitif occasions, while wines, alcoholic cocktails and still spirits suffer a decline of 2%. For bitters and after-meal drinks, the decline is more marked (-5%) due to the contraction in consumption at dinner while maintaining a fair popularity in pizzerias.
“The data from the Observatory - declares Micaela Pallini, president of Federvini - demonstrates how the Italian wine, spirits and vinegar supply chain, despite facing complex challenges, continues to be a strategic asset for the Italian economy. But there is no shortage of signs of difficulty also linked to precarious geopolitical balances and it is therefore essential to continue investing in the international promotion and defense of our sectors. To guarantee long-term stability and growth, a systemic action is necessary aimed at strengthening Italy’s role in synergy with all the players in the supply chain, to enhance excellence and promptly respond to the new needs of international markets”.